Structural bull market deduces fund institutions to seek depression opportunities

category:Finance
 Structural bull market deduces fund institutions to seek depression opportunities


Since the beginning of this year, consumption, medicine and science and technology have been playing a dominant role. As a result, if we hold shares in the above fields in the first half of the year, the investment performance will be very bright. Observing the performance of public funds in the first half of the year, we can find that pharmaceutical funds and consumer funds occupy the top of the performance list.

In the middle of the year, fund institutions have made the latest research and judgment on the market trend. At present, structural bull market is still the mainstream view of the market. Hao Xudong of Nord Fund believes that the current market has entered a relatively obvious structural bull market, and it will still be dominated by structural bull market in the future. A comprehensive bull market needs a substantial increase in economic growth or extremely abundant capital. At present, from the perspective of economic fundamentals and incremental funds, both show that the market is more like a structural bull market and has a sustained trend.

However, the structural bull market does not necessarily continue to revolve in the three major fields of consumption, medicine and technology. In the near future, the important force driving the Shanghai Composite Index to stand at 3000 points and break through 3100 points lies in the relay performance of dormant plates such as non bank finance and real estate, which makes the bull market atmosphere of the market more intense.

Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief investment officer (equity) of China Southern Fund, said that the market in the first half of the year was extremely differentiated in terms of industry performance. The performance of science and technology, consumption and medicine was very good, while the cycle of traditional finance and real estate was very poor. There are two possibilities for the structure of the market in the second half of the year. The first is that the market will remain unchanged, but the market will spread from the first-line leader to the second and third line; the second is to switch fields and make up for the financial and real estate cycle by a large margin.

Wang Yanfei, manager of Dongfanghong asset management fund, pointed out that in the first half of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic on the macro-economy, funds were concentrated into some certain sectors, leading to a large rise in the valuation of some sectors, and the differentiation of valuation between sectors reached the extreme. In recent years, from the perspective of capital flow, investment in pharmaceutical and biological sectors has slowed down, turning to financial, real estate and other undervalued sectors.

Undervalues need to be selected

However, in the market style will not move, for undervalued opportunities, we also have to be careful. We need to see clearly the logic of undervalues. Some undervalues are due to the suppression of market risk preference and market sentiment, while others are caused by great changes in fundamentals. The two cannot be generalized. The Nuggets undervalue doesnt mean you buy when you see its cheap. Its going to fall into another extreme thinking A fund manager reminds me.

Wang Yanfei said that at present, he is more optimistic about some sectors with low valuation, pessimistic expectations that have been fully reflected, and relatively large differentiation within the industry, such as the real estate sector. On the one hand, the macroeconomic pressure and industry pressure are fully reflected in the valuation; on the other hand, the outstanding companies in the industry can offset the pressure brought by the industry depression by increasing the market share. Hope to find some excellent companies through the industry cycle, the implied expected return rate of these targets is not low. Of course, in this regard, we should examine whether there is the risk of valuation trap in real time.

Li Chen, fund manager of Guangfa fund, said that in the second half of the year, it will focus on looking for value return opportunities for good enterprises in the field of undervalued value. One is optional consumption, such as home appliances, liquor, home, leisure services, etc. At present, there is still a big discount between optional consumption and daily consumption. With economic growth gradually returning to normal level, the demand of these industries is expected to gradually recover, and excellent companies are expected to have good opportunities. Second, focus on high dividend blue chip opportunities. In the second half of the year, if the liquidity is still loose, we can consider blue chips with low valuation and high dividend. Their value has been undervalued in the past two years and is still undervalued in the current market environment.

Source of this article: Ren Hui, editor in charge of China Securities News u00b7 China Securities Net_ NBJ9607