Hangzhou and Dongguan re tighten the regulation of property market

category:Finance
 Hangzhou and Dongguan re tighten the regulation of property market


It can be seen that on July 2, Dongguan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on Further Strengthening the management of pre-sale (sale) of commercial housing, requiring that the sales of commercial housing under construction be accelerated, the price guidance of commercial housing sales be strengthened, and the sales supervision of commercial housing projects be strengthened. Among them, it is clear that the price increase of new houses in the same area shall not exceed 10% in three months, and the average price difference of each new house in the same building shall not exceed 20%.

Coincidentally, new housing turnover reached a record high, and Hangzhou, which ranked first in the country in terms of land transfer fees in the first half of the year, also introduced restrictive regulatory policies.

On July 2, Hangzhou housing security and real estate administration bureau of Zhejiang Province issued Hangzhou further clarifies the relevant requirements for public sale of commercial housing notarization lottery, which specifies that high-level talent families can only enjoy one-time preferential purchase qualification in Hangzhou, and shall not be listed for trading within 5 years from the date of Online signing of houses. Furthermore, the public sale of newly-built commercial housing has been further increased The proportion of new commercial housing projects with an average price of less than 35000 yuan / m2 for non housing families is generally no less than 50%.

In addition, the peoples Government of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province has also made clear that the housing purchase restriction policy has not been abolished, and issued a statement on the abolition of the purchase restriction policy in Huailai County via the Internet, saying that the news that Huailai County, Hebei Province has cancelled the policy of restricting the purchase of commercial housing, is not true. Huailai County Bureau of housing and urban rural development office staff said that the previous document expired, the subsequent extension of the document. At present, the purchase restriction measures are still implemented.

Hangzhous new house turnover reached a new high in three years

Affected by the novel coronavirus pneumonia, the real estate policy has been concentrated this year. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of this year, the number of national real estate regulation policies was 304, up 21% year-on-year. It is not difficult to find that these policies mainly focus on saving enterprises and rescuing the market, including relaxing the payment time of land transfer fees, speeding up the pre-sale, giving housing subsidies and relaxing the settlement of talents.

From the policy of saving the market, the policy of reducing down payment has been stopped, and the policy of loosening restrictions on purchase has also been withdrawn. According to the statistics of institutions, more than 12 cities have had one-day policy tours, but the policy of subsidizing house purchase still has an impact on the market.

In the pursuit of loose property market policies, why do Hangzhou and Dongguan go against the current? The answer may be that the property market is picking up and housing prices are rising.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, in the first half of this year, 68399 new houses were sold in Hangzhou City, with a total transaction value of 2013.30 billion yuan in half a year. Among them, the turnover in June reached 19528 sets, the highest monthly turnover of new houses since June 2017. In the first half of the year, a total of 43000 second-hand houses were sold in Hangzhou, up 4.02% over the previous years 41400 units, up 8.77% from 39600 units in the second half of 2019.

In addition, for the Hangzhou market, it has been the national land sales champion for three consecutive years. According to the land market in the first half of 2020 released by the China Index Research Institute, the total amount of land transfer fees in 300 cities nationwide in the first half of 2020 is 23716 billion yuan, an increase of 3% over the same period of last year. Among them, Hangzhous land market received more than 150 billion yuan in the first half of the year, ranking first in the middle of the year for three consecutive years, surpassing Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other first tier cities.

Dongguan, known as back garden in Shenzhen, has also attracted much attention recently because of the first increase in house prices over Shenzhen.

According to media reports, according to the ranking of the second-hand housing iceberg index of 62 cities (157 issues) released by an institution, the prices of second-hand houses in Dongguan in the fourth week of April were 19240 yuan, and 19751 yuan in the fourth week of May, with a month on month increase of 2.7%, surpassing that of Shenzhen for the first time. It also declared that Dongguans house prices have soared since this year and will enter the 30000 era.

In response, Dongguan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development said that Dongguan did have the phenomenon that prices of some core areas and popular real estate rose rapidly, and these phenomena were partially magnified by various network media.

Regarding the issuance of the notice, Dongguan Bureau of housing and urban rural development also said that if the contradiction between supply and demand of commercial housing in some areas of Dongguan City is prominent and the price of housing has increased greatly, we should effectively speed up the effective supply of housing, keep the housing price stable and promote the steady and orderly development of the real estate market.

According to the price data of second-hand housing provided by Dongguan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development, the price of second-hand housing in Dongguan had negative growth for two months and positive growth for one month from March to May. The average price of second-hand housing in May was 16402 yuan per square meter, slightly lower than the average price of 16541 yuan per square meter in March, but increased by 3.39% month on month.

Policy adjustment is a response to the market, and the overall market is still under pressure in the third quarter

So, is the tightening policy led by Hangzhou and Dongguan meaningful?

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the recent policy adjustments introduced by some cities such as Hangzhou and Dongguan are in response to the market reaction in the early stage. In response to the expected rise in the market and some peoples speculative buying houses, the market is fine tuned and optimized to curb the signs of rising house prices.

Xu Xiaole pointed out that in the first half of this year, there were still a few cities with the market warming up, which did not mean that the overall market turned hot. In the second half of the year, under the loose financial environment, the housing prices in core cities still have a certain driving force. For those cities whose house prices are unstable and expected to be unstable, it is expected that there will be a series of policy adjustments under the long-term mechanism of one city, one policy to maintain a stable and orderly market.

From the overall market point of view, the semi annual market data released by Shell Research Institute shows that in the first half of the year, the trading volume of key 18 cities in Lianjia was the lowest in the past three years, with a decrease of 8.4% compared with the same period of last year, but a slight increase of 4.2% compared with the second half of last year. The epidemic situation has little impact on the second-hand housing market in key cities. In terms of price, under the epidemic situation, the average price of second-hand housing in key cities in the first quarter of 2020 generally fell compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and the average price in the second quarter generally rebounded with the market repair.

In terms of second-hand housing, according to the data of Shell Research Institute, in the first half of 2020, the total number of new house transactions in 66 cities decreased by 16.0% year-on-year, and the total transaction area decreased by 14.0%. Under the stable epidemic situation, the new housing market volume recovered rapidly in the second quarter, but compared with the same period in 2019, the number and area of new house transactions still decreased by 5% and 4% respectively.

For the prediction of the property market in the second half of the year, Zhang Zhengyu, director of Nomura China real estate research, believes that the formation of xiaoyangchun in the real estate market in the second quarter is mainly due to the concentrated release of the backlog of house purchase demand affected by the epidemic in the first quarter. However, as in the past two years, the sales momentum or demand is difficult to continue to the third quarter of this year. As for the market in the second half of this year, the market momentum in the second half of this year will be weaker than that in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the market de trend and housing price trend will encounter greater pressure. At the end of the third quarter, some relaxation policies on the property market may appear. It believes that the property market in the second half of the year or a U-shaped trend, at the end of the third quarter, with the relaxation of the policy, sales may still stabilize. It is expected that the sales volume of the new housing market this year will decline slightly compared with that of last year, but the decline rate will not be too large, about 3-5 points. Extended reading market fire to trading software downtime! The familiar bull market is about to repeat itself? The Ministry of human resources and social security has released nine new professions: online celebrities with goods have become live salesmen. In the first half of the year, 55 funds have been wound up: a company has at most six in liquidation. Source: surging news editor: Wang Xiaowu_ NF

For the prediction of the property market in the second half of the year, Zhang Zhengyu, director of Nomura China real estate research, believes that the formation of xiaoyangchun in the real estate market in the second quarter is mainly due to the concentrated release of the backlog of house purchase demand affected by the epidemic in the first quarter. However, as in the past two years, the sales momentum or demand is difficult to continue to the third quarter of this year. As for the market in the second half of this year, the market momentum in the second half of this year will be weaker than that in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the market de trend and housing price trend will encounter greater pressure. At the end of the third quarter, some relaxation policies on the property market may appear. It believes that the property market in the second half of the year or a U-shaped trend, at the end of the third quarter, with the relaxation of the policy, sales may still stabilize. It is expected that the sales volume of the new housing market this year will decline slightly compared with that of last year, but the decline rate will not be too large, about 3-5 points.