Is the bull market really coming? Where to adjust the position in the second half of the year

category:Finance
 Is the bull market really coming? Where to adjust the position in the second half of the year


Is the bull market really coming?

Happily, none of the fund managers surveyed was bearish on the market in the second half of the year.

In the next stage, the core variable that dominates the trend of A-share market is still economic fundamentals. Mo Haibo, assistant general manager of Wanjia fund and director of investment research department, believes that the overall valuation of A-share market is at a historical low point. Once the economy stabilizes and rebounds and liquidity support is added, the overall performance in the second half of the year is relatively optimistic.

For Chinas macroeconomic trend in the second half of the year, about 70% of fund managers gave the judgment that the recovery was slow. For the annual GDP growth in 2020, 46.34% of fund managers are expected to be in the range of 3-4%, and 29.27% of fund managers are expected to be in the range of 2-3%.

Under the support of the expected slow recovery of domestic economy and the general trend of residents wealth reallocation, the A-share market has become the most optimistic asset category for fund managers.

We need to lower certain expected yield targets in the second half of the year. Cheng Zhou, head of the third division of Cathay Pacific Funds active equity investment business, said frankly that after the market conditions in 2019 and the first half of 2020, structural opportunities have been excavated to a certain depth. It is difficult to find varieties with high performance price ratio, and there are fewer opportunities for high-quality assets that can be purchased more comfortably. Investment in the second half of the year is more difficult, and the large plate market is not obvious. However, the economy is also gradually changing, and new opportunities can be found in the changes.

Like Cheng Zhou, according to the survey, more than 60% of fund managers think it is more difficult to earn income in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. About a quarter of the fund managers believe that the difficulty of investment is the same as that in the first half of the year, and less than 15% think it is easier to earn income.

A number of investment directors have also mentioned the uncertainties that may disturb the market in the second half of the year. Weng Qisen, deputy general manager and chief investment officer of Huaan fund, believes that in the second half of the year, the global capital market will mainly focus on the main axis of post epidemic era liquidity easing + economic unsealing and restart, but there are still several variables: first, the risk of secondary outbreak of overseas epidemic; in addition, if resource and agricultural products such as Brazil and India are affected by the epidemic, they will be impacted Whether it will push up global inflation is also a big variable.

Can the valuation premium of leading companies continue?

The structural market in the first half of the year was summarized by the seller as bull market of a small number of companies, among which some leading companies in the three major fields of medicine, consumption and science and technology performed most brilliantly.

Can the overvalued value of these leading companies be sustained? Is there any possibility of convergence in the estimation difference between plates?

At present, the valuation of each sector is quite different. Is there any possibility of convergence in the second half of the year

At the same time, another factor worthy of attention is that the structure of A-share investors is changing: the strong attraction of star fund managers and fund explosion funds has accelerated the accumulation of residents funds. In the first half of this year, new funds issued more than one trillion yuan; and foreign capital also flowed in more than 100 billion yuan through beishangtong, basically maintaining the rhythm of running in in the past two years u3002

In fact, the markets acceptance of relatively high valuations of leading companies is also increasing. In the view of fund managers, the current relative overvaluation is an indisputable fact, but the future performance can give a more reasonable explanation for the current valuation.

If the valuation is reasonable or slightly expensive, I think we can continue to hold the leading companies and ignore the short-term fluctuation of the market. Yu Guang, assistant general manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund and director of the stock investment department, said that individual stocks performed actively in the early stage, resulting in higher valuations. However, on the whole, the competitive advantage of leading companies is becoming more and more obvious. The real core assets have good profit support, and the continuous growth of enterprise profits can digest the situation of high valuation.

In Cheng Zhous view, the current bull market of a small number of companies is still hard to end. Although the valuation of some varieties has been pushed up, but this is within the scope of market tolerance. As for when this self strengthening will end, the fuse of negative feedback may come from the fact that some target companies are not as good as expected.

How strong is the counter attack of undervalued plate?

In the first half of the year, the phenomenon of valuation differentiation between A-share industry and sectors has become increasingly fierce. On the one hand, high valuation varieties such as science and technology, medical treatment and consumption are in full swing; on the other hand, the undervalued sectors such as banks and real estate are in short supply. However, in recent trading days, undervalued plate staged a good play of Jedi counterattack.

For the persistence of undervalued sector rebound, investment directors have different views.

Mo Haibo, assistant general manager and chief investment officer of Wanjia fund, clearly believes that after the valuation gap reaches the limit, with the gradual stabilization of economic fundamentals, some industries closely related to the economic cycle, such as finance and real estate, will usher in the opportunity to repair. For some short-term incremental funds, we will choose some varieties with higher performance price ratio to allocate them, because some of them are of high cost performance Once there is volatility in the overvalued industry, there may be a significant correction.

Xu Lirong, deputy general manager and investment director of Guohai Franklin fund, is quite optimistic about the investment value of bank stocks. Banks are like fund managers in the macro economy. He said that Chinas economic growth has shifted to domestic demand and consumption, and the economic growth rate has gradually entered the era of low volatility from high volatility in the past. Banks have less difficulty in selecting high-quality customers, which is a very beneficial industry in the environment of stable economic growth. But the market has the thinking inertia to the bank stock, and seriously underestimates and understates the bank.

The underrated varieties may have the opportunity to perform in stages in the second half of the year, but they only appear as episodes and are difficult to become the main melody. Cheng Zhou holds a relatively different view. Taking bank stocks as an example, under the policy keynote of 1.5 trillion yuan of interest from the financial system to the real economy, the roe of bank stocks is expected to continue to decline, and the bad debt pressure will increase under the influence of the epidemic, so the valuation is difficult to improve.

In this regard, Mo Haibo said that for long-term funds, it will still choose industries with better long-term development prospects such as science and technology, consumption and medicine. Although some high-quality enterprises in these industries now have high valuations, their annual performance matching degree is fair, and their future growth is enough to absorb the valuation. Therefore, if the short-term volatility is ignored, it is still a good choice for long-term funds.

Who is the brightest star in the second half of the year?

Which industry sectors can also contribute to excess earnings in the third quarter and even the second half of the year? Specific to the direction of position adjustment, fund managers will make what choice?

According to the questionnaire survey, among the most promising industries for fund managers in the second half of the year, electronics, food and beverage, medicine and biology ranked among the top three, with nearly 60% support rate. In addition, the computer, media, home appliances, communications and other industries are relatively high recognition.

Weng Qisen believes that the technology stocks in the third quarter are expected to continue the trend since June. For example, the performance of Apple industrial chain is relatively high. Meanwhile, considering the demand recovery of smart phones after the epidemic slows down, 5g replacement wave and Apple product innovation are expected to drive the performance of some parts companies in the industry chain to improve, and they are more optimistic about the varieties with deeper moat. In the field of semiconductors, he is optimistic about the long-term trend of domestic substitution. However, the overall valuation of semiconductor industry has been on the high side, and he prefers some products with relatively reasonable valuation in materials and equipment. In addition to science and technology, the probability rate of consumption of individual varieties will continue to rise, and industry leaders with undervalued value may also show performance in the third quarter.

Mo Haibo is more optimistic about the investment opportunities of new energy vehicles. In his opinion, with the rise of the wave of electric and intelligent vehicles, new energy vehicles will be a more certain industry in the next five years, with broad market space. Data can tell everything. Last year, the penetration rate of electric vehicles in the world was only about 2.5%. In the next 20 to 30 years, once all gasoline vehicles are converted into electric vehicles, the whole industry will have about 40 times of growth space.

Cheng said the second half of the year will be more bottom-up opportunities for individual stocks. The layout of the third quarter will mainly focus on the interim report, and the source of excess earnings will mainly come from the expected difference of the interim report. The listed companies in the first quarter are generally affected by the epidemic, but the performance differentiation among the stocks in the second quarter is relatively large. Recently, it has reduced the holding of some pharmaceutical products with a large increase, and retained some varieties whose valuation is still reasonable. At the same time, some consumer electronics, electronic components and other landscape to a good standard.

Yu Guang also said that he paid more attention to the matching between the companys long-term value and valuation rationality, which would make the portfolios industry configuration more balanced. This is also the main logic of position adjustment, which is adjusted according to valuation and market conditions. Consumption, medicine and science and technology represent the future development direction of the domestic economy, and they are still combined redistribution industries. Compared with the selection industry, will pay more attention to the selection of individual stocks. Generally speaking, we will choose high-quality companies with relatively reasonable valuation and strong profitability growth in the industry.

In addition to bullish bank stocks, Xu Lirong optimistic about another plate is still big consumption. As for the dispute over the high valuation of consumer goods, he tends to think that the current overall valuation of the sector is reasonable, and the withdrawal of short-term valuation is normal. In terms of the investment cycle of more than three years, the valuation is not expensive, and some stocks are even relatively cheap. In addition, during the outbreak, peoples consumption habits have changed. If some companies with optional consumer goods can comply with this consumption habit, they can continue to expand their market share and have an advantage, and their valuation is expected to continue to increase.

Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607