Is the bull market really coming? Where to adjust the position in the second half of the year

category:Finance
 Is the bull market really coming? Where to adjust the position in the second half of the year


Is the bull market really coming?

In the view of fund managers, structural market is still the basic setting for the second half of the year, with 73.17% of fund managers checking this option; while 21.95% of fund managers choose to be bullish, and 4.88% of fund managers hold a neutral view.

Happily, none of the fund managers surveyed was bearish on the market in the second half of the year.

In the next stage, the core variable that dominates the trend of A-share market is still economic fundamentals. Mo Haibo, assistant general manager of Wanjia fund and director of investment research department, believes that the overall valuation of A-share market is at a historical low point. Once the economy stabilizes and rebounds and liquidity support is added, the overall performance in the second half of the year is relatively optimistic.

For Chinas macroeconomic trend in the second half of the year, about 70% of fund managers gave the judgment that the recovery was slow. For the annual GDP growth in 2020, 46.34% of fund managers are expected to be in the range of 3-4%, and 29.27% of fund managers are expected to be in the range of 2-3%.

However, as the structural market in the first half of the year has been fully tapped, fund managers have also admitted that it is an indisputable fact that the difficulty of stock selection has increased.

Like Cheng Zhou, according to the survey, more than 60% of fund managers think it is more difficult to earn income in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. About a quarter of the fund managers believe that the difficulty of investment is the same as that in the first half of the year, and less than 15% think it is easier to earn income.

A number of investment directors have also mentioned the uncertainties that may disturb the market in the second half of the year. Weng Qisen, deputy general manager and chief investment officer of Huaan fund, believes that in the second half of the year, the global capital market will mainly focus on the main axis of post epidemic era liquidity easing + economic unsealing and restart, but there are still several variables: first, the risk of secondary outbreak of overseas epidemic; in addition, if resource and agricultural products such as Brazil and India are affected by the epidemic, they will be impacted Whether it will push up global inflation is also a big variable.

Can the valuation premium of leading companies continue?

The structural market in the first half of the year was summarized by the seller as bull market of a small number of companies, among which some leading companies in the three major fields of medicine, consumption and science and technology performed most brilliantly.

Can the overvalued value of these leading companies be sustained? Is there any possibility of convergence in the estimation difference between plates?

At present, the valuation of each sector is quite different. Is there any possibility of convergence in the second half of the year

Many investment directors interviewed all mentioned that the high premium of leading companies is not a short-term phenomenon, but will exist for a long time. In the future, the economy is still faced with challenges. Leading companies can show stronger anti risk ability and indirectly benefit from the improvement of concentration under the passive supply side reform brought about by the epidemic.

At the same time, another factor worthy of attention is that the structure of A-share investors is changing: the strong attraction of star fund managers and fund explosion funds has accelerated the accumulation of residents funds. In the first half of this year, new funds issued more than one trillion yuan; and foreign capital also flowed in more than 100 billion yuan through beishangtong, basically maintaining the rhythm of running in in the past two years u3002

In fact, the markets acceptance of relatively high valuations of leading companies is also increasing. In the view of fund managers, the current relative overvaluation is an indisputable fact, but the future performance can give a more reasonable explanation for the current valuation.

If the valuation is reasonable or slightly expensive, I think we can continue to hold the leading companies and ignore the short-term fluctuation of the market. Yu Guang, assistant general manager of Jingshun Great Wall Fund and director of the stock investment department, said that individual stocks performed actively in the early stage, resulting in higher valuations. However, on the whole, the competitive advantage of leading companies is becoming more and more obvious. The real core assets have good profit support, and the continuous growth of enterprise profits can digest the situation of high valuation.

In Cheng Zhous view, the current bull market of a small number of companies is still hard to end. Although the valuation of some varieties has been pushed up, but this is within the scope of market tolerance. As for when this self strengthening will end, the fuse of negative feedback may come from the fact that some target companies are not as good as expected.

Weng Qisen reminded that the market may be more sensitive to changes in interest rates in the second half of the year. At present, the market is used to the environment of easy liquidity. Once there is a marginal tightening, the impact will be more obvious for the varieties whose valuation has been hit too high.

In the first half of the year, the phenomenon of valuation differentiation between A-share industry and sectors has become increasingly fierce. On the one hand, high valuation varieties such as science and technology, medical treatment and consumption are in full swing; on the other hand, the undervalued sectors such as banks and real estate are in short supply. However, in recent trading days, undervalued plate staged a good play of Jedi counterattack.

For the persistence of undervalued sector rebound, investment directors have different views.

Mo Haibo, assistant general manager and chief investment officer of Wanjia fund, clearly believes that after the valuation gap reaches the limit, with the gradual stabilization of economic fundamentals, some industries closely related to the economic cycle, such as finance and real estate, will usher in the opportunity to repair. For some short-term incremental funds, we will choose some varieties with higher performance price ratio to allocate them, because some of them are of high cost performance Once there is volatility in the overvalued industry, there may be a significant correction.

Xu Lirong, deputy general manager and investment director of Guohai Franklin fund, is quite optimistic about the investment value of bank stocks. Banks are like fund managers in the macro economy. He said that Chinas economic growth has shifted to domestic demand and consumption, and the economic growth rate has gradually entered the era of low volatility from high volatility in the past. Banks have less difficulty in selecting high-quality customers, which is a very beneficial industry in the environment of stable economic growth. But the market has the thinking inertia to the bank stock, and seriously underestimates and understates the bank.

The underrated varieties may have the opportunity to perform in stages in the second half of the year, but they only appear as episodes and are difficult to become the main melody. Cheng Zhou holds a relatively different view. Taking bank stocks as an example, under the policy keynote of 1.5 trillion yuan of interest from the financial system to the real economy, the roe of bank stocks is expected to continue to decline, and the bad debt pressure will increase under the influence of the epidemic, so the valuation is difficult to improve.

In fact, with the consideration of time dimension, some fund managers believe that with the rapid rise of consumption, medicine and technology stock prices leading to the decline of their implied returns, the market may pay more attention to the traditional undervalued plate under the stimulation of various economic recovery information, but in the long run, the areas with growth prospects are still the focus of funds Elephant.

In this regard, Mo Haibo said that for long-term funds, it will still choose industries with better long-term development prospects such as science and technology, consumption and medicine. Although some high-quality enterprises in these industries now have high valuations, their annual performance matching degree is fair, and their future growth is enough to absorb the valuation. Therefore, if the short-term volatility is ignored, it is still a good choice for long-term funds.

Who is the brightest star in the second half of the year?

Several investment directors also gave their answers.

Cheng said the second half of the year will be more bottom-up opportunities for individual stocks. The layout of the third quarter will mainly focus on the interim report, and the source of excess earnings will mainly come from the expected difference of the interim report. The listed companies in the first quarter are generally affected by the epidemic, but the performance differentiation among the stocks in the second quarter is relatively large. Recently, it has reduced the holding of some pharmaceutical products with a large increase, and retained some varieties whose valuation is still reasonable. At the same time, some consumer electronics, electronic components and other landscape to a good standard.

In addition to bullish bank stocks, Xu Lirong optimistic about another plate is still big consumption. As for the dispute over the high valuation of consumer goods, he tends to think that the current overall valuation of the sector is reasonable, and the withdrawal of short-term valuation is normal. In terms of the investment cycle of more than three years, the valuation is not expensive, and some stocks are even relatively cheap. In addition, during the outbreak, peoples consumption habits have changed. If some companies with optional consumer goods can comply with this consumption habit, they can continue to expand their market share and have an advantage, and their valuation is expected to continue to increase.

Source: Ren Hui, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NBJ9607