In the first half of the year, the real estate market basically recovered, some fluctuations remained unchanged, and the whole year showed a stable trend

category:Finance
 In the first half of the year, the real estate market basically recovered, some fluctuations remained unchanged, and the whole year showed a stable trend


With the introduction of policies to stabilize real estate in many places across the country, the liquidity difficulties of real estate enterprises affected by the epidemic situation were alleviated by delaying or paying land transfer fees by stages and relaxing pre-sale conditions. The land market took the lead in warming up after the Spring Festival. Since the middle of February, a number of high premium land transactions have been completed in Beijing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou and other hot cities. Among them, the premium rate of one parcel of land in Beijing has reached 49.8%, a new high in two years. It is worth noting that most of these enterprises are state-owned enterprises or central enterprises with capital strength.

In order to influence the closure of the offline sales offices, the real estate enterprises have increased their online sales efforts. Since March, with the gradual restart of some offline sales, real estate enterprises have increased their efforts to push the price, and the backlog of purchase demand in the early stage began to release, and the market recovered accordingly. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, in the second quarter, the overall turnover of new housing market in 66 large and medium-sized cities was close to the same period last year, and the turnover of first and second tier cities recovered relatively fast. Among them, the Yangtze River Delta regional market is obviously willing to warm up, and the accumulated transaction area of Nanjing in half a year increased by 24% year-on-year. In March, the turnover of second-hand housing in key 18 cities increased by 41.8% compared with the total turnover in January to February, and the month on month growth in April and may reached 39% and 19% respectively. Although the turnover in June was lower than that in May, it still increased by 21% year-on-year. Half a year later, the new housing and second-hand housing market has basically recovered. Said Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of Shell Research Institute.

Not only did housing prices rebound, but land prices rose significantly in the first half of the year. In the second quarter, the pace of land supply accelerated and the scale increased, especially in the first and second tier cities with frequent high-quality land plots. After adding the support policies at the supply side since February, the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises for land acquisition was high, which promoted the price structural rise. In the first half of the year, the average transaction floor price of residential land in 300 cities in China was 5154 yuan / m2, the highest level in the same period in recent years, up 16.5% year-on-year, and the average premium rate was more than 15%.

At the same time, the real estate enterprises are also paying close attention to the sales window period. By the end of June, the average sales target completion rate of more than 30 real estate enterprises that have announced this years performance targets is 41%. According to the general rule of four six development in the first and second half of the year, the achievement of this goal is still in line with expectations. Said Pan Hao, a senior analyst at the shell Research Institute.

Local rise

Not changing the stable trend of the whole year

In spite of the impact of the epidemic in the first half of the year, the real estate market still walked out of the V-shaped recovery trend and was in the leading position in all industries. In addition, some cities appeared restless in the market. According to the statistics of the shell Research Institute, in June, Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Dalian, Changsha, Guangzhou, Hefei and other places, owners of second-hand houses increased by more than 20%.

Qin Hong, a senior researcher at the urban renewal research center of the National Institute of development and strategy, Renmin University of China, believes that despite the impact of the epidemic, the recovery of the national real estate market is quite good. The main reason is closely related to the current loose monetary policy.

Xu Xiaole also believes that one of the main reasons is that the spillover effect of financial policies drives the recovery. Although there is no direct stimulus to real estate, the loose monetary policy has a greater spillover effect on market expectations. At the same time, the real estate preference of key cities is enhanced under the stagflation expectation. Second, under the talent introduction policy, we should accelerate the entry of rigid demand into the market. Since the beginning of this year, key first and second tier cities have continued to make efforts in talent introduction policies, and even provide subsidies for purchasing houses and settling down, so that some consumers can avoid regulatory restrictions and enter the market. Third, the chain of improved house change has become a new driving force.

However, for the rapid rise of second-hand housing prices in a few cities, Xu Xiaole believes that this is only partial and phased. Most cities are only recovering to the normal, and it is difficult to have a global and sustained rise in housing prices. Because the current market inventory is in a high position, the contradiction between supply and demand is relatively relaxed; the transaction cycle is long, the market transaction efficiency is still low; the price reduction behavior of owners is still dominant in price adjustment. In addition, there is still a gap of half a years cumulative turnover of new houses, and the market is still in the process of gradual recovery.

For the market trend in the second half of the year, Xu Xiaole believes that the second-hand housing market in key cities is differentiated, but the potential demand is still strong, and the market in the second half of the year is not pessimistic. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the volume of key 18 cities of Lianjia is still at a high position, which means that the overall transaction volume in the second half of the year is stable or slightly better. The demand restrained in the early stage may be compensated in the second half of the year. It is expected that the overall transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in key cities will be flat or slightly increased in the second half of the year. At the same time, the repair process of the new housing market has been basically completed, and the backlog of demand in the first quarter has been gradually released. It is expected that the market will not continue to rise sharply in the second half of the year. However, under the downward pressure of the economy, the total amount of the real estate market, as an important consumer market, will not drop significantly, and it is expected to stabilize at the level of recent years throughout the year.

Cao Jingjing, research director of the index business unit of the China National Index Research Institute, also believes that the market recovered very fast in the first half of this year, especially in recent months. It is more because the restrained demand in the early stage was gradually released, which led to the recovery of the market. This demand may have been released to a certain extent in the first half of the year, and the overall sales in the second half will return to a normal rhythm. It is estimated that the overall sales area of commercial housing in China will drop by 5-6.5 percentage points this year, and the overall sales scale will remain at 1.6 billion square meters. This years prices will remain stable as a whole. More factors for a small rise come from the whole. The performance of the first and second tier will be slightly better than that of the third and fourth tier. Structural changes will drive the whole house price to have a better support.

For the second half of the land market, pan Hao is expected to remain stable. In cities where the new housing market is rapidly recovered through the land market in the first half of the year, the supply strategy will be adjusted in the second half of the year to prevent or restrain the price rise or overheating of the land market. He said.