From Chen Guos point of view, the impact of the epidemic on the economy must be marginal weakening, adding to the global liquidity flooding, Chinas economy is the first to enter the recovery channel, so a shares have obvious advantages from the perspective of global asset pricing.
Standing at the current point, the rise of undervalued sectors such as finance and real estate is mainly a kind of make-up, which is expected to continue for some time in the future. However, the main line of bull market represented by technology stocks has not changed, and there are still performance opportunities in the future. From the perspective of the overall market, recovery bull is not finished, and the index still has room for further upward.
Chen Guo believes that now is the standard bull market environment, the end of the bull market should see the obvious tightening of liquidity and external extreme events. The standard bull market can rise, but the main line is often not the most attractive valuation. In the bull market, the range of valuation expansion of various sectors is also different, and the difference is still more elastic than the fundamentals and the space imagined in the future. In a bull market environment, if the valuation of technology stocks is high, it is impossible to draw the conclusion that the style will switch, especially after the traditional industries have made up for the rise, this problem has also been alleviated.
On the rise of financial stocks: using undervalue to attract people is a bull market, not a style switch
The market sentiment in July can be said to be completely ignited. One of the most concerned questions for investors is whether the technology market is over? In this regard, Chen Guo thinks: the recovery of bull is the logic of a comprehensive bull market, and the stock management of securities companies should have opportunities. There will be valuation repair opportunities for undervalued Pro cyclical plates, but I dont think it is a style switch.
Under the logic of recovery bull, it is a high probability event that the valuation differentiation of A-share industry in the early stage tends to extreme value, the institutional allocation is crowded, and the undervalued value that is continuously and deliberately avoided rises in the pro cyclical plate. At the current time point, the interest rates of refinancing and rediscount have been lowered slightly, and the market is worried about the suspension of supply of Chinese science and technology enterprises and the lifting of the ban on the science and technology innovation board. Thus, the undervalued sector has started a round of supplementary rise, or the valuation repair market is quite reasonable.
Looking back on the style changes in history, the main theme after 2000 is industrialization and urbanization. The coal flying and color dancing of financial, real estate and cycle plates have also led to consumption and other sectors. After 4 trillion yuan, economic growth tends to decline, and structural transformation gradually deepens. Consumption, medicine and technology, which represent the transformation direction, become the main line of A-share investment, while financial, real estate and cyclical stocks with a downward trend in medium-term growth have become auxiliary lines.
The current environment is a mild economic recovery, but science and technology is a strong business cycle. If the economy rebounds, science and technology will be better. For example, when the US economy and interest rates went up in the past few years, technology stocks were still strong. Simply because interest rates or the economy are picking up, we think that style switching is problematic.
The biggest drawback of technology stocks in a bear market is that their future performance is sometimes unclear. In a bull market, this can be its biggest advantage. Especially at present, science and technology is in a strong business cycle. It is difficult to estimate how strong the profit growth of many companies will eventually achieve.
However, he also said that the valuation repair of undervalued stocks has not yet been completed. For example, the performance growth of securities companies this year has not been affected by the epidemic situation. This year, they continue to release policy dividends. In the medium term, securities companies are strategic industries supporting economic transformation and upgrading.
On the logic of recovering cattle: the epidemic situation will also increase, and the epidemic situation used to be a retaliatory growth
In the interview, Chen Guo talked about a very interesting market dispute. Some people say that at the beginning of the year, the market has reached more than 3100 points. Is the economic situation better now than at that time?
Secondly, the market is driven by the expectation of recovery. Because of the epidemic situation, Chinas credit leniency this year is rare in the past few years. In the past few months, Chinas social and financial data continued to exceed expectations, and Chinas economic data also continued to exceed expectations, and the impact of the epidemic on peoples activities and economy must be weakened on the border. Therefore, the epidemic situation exists, and the global economy will also grow in the epidemic situation There are breakthroughs in detection, vaccine, treatment and other fields, and there may be further retaliatory growth. The market is more clear that the economy in the next quarter will be better than this quarter, and the economy next year will be better than this year. However, to what extent will there be retaliatory growth, the market does not dare to limit it easily. This is the deepening of the recovery expectation and promoting the market to move forward.
This is also the main reason why Chen Guo firmly put forward recovery bull when the market was in distress in the second quarter.
From a global perspective, Chen said frankly that if the future U.S. stocks fall, it is still worthy of attention.
In fact, when the U.S. stock market plummeted in March and the extreme market of four times in ten days appeared, most of the views in the market compared the slump to the great depression in 1929 and the financial crisis in 2008. At that time, Chen Guo put forward that the United States has no crisis and depression, only to pay and repair. This logic has been confirmed later. He said in an interview: this year is an epidemic crisis, but the monetary and fiscal policies are in place very quickly. The United States is directly paying the bill. On the other hand, global liquidity is indeed rampant, and Chinas recovery trend is the strongest, so A-share has a strong advantage. If the U.S. stock market is a buffalo, then A-share is a more solid recovery bull. Assets should also be priced on the basis of comparison. A-share is the optimal allocation of domestic residents and global capital in the current environment. Source: surging news editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368
In fact, when the U.S. stock market plummeted in March and the extreme market of four times in ten days appeared, most of the views in the market compared the slump to the great depression in 1929 and the financial crisis in 2008. At that time, Chen Guo put forward that the United States has no crisis and depression, only to pay and repair. This logic has been confirmed later.
He said in an interview: this year is an epidemic crisis, but the monetary and fiscal policies are in place very quickly. The United States is directly paying the bill. On the other hand, global liquidity is indeed rampant, and Chinas recovery trend is the strongest, so A-share has a strong advantage. If the U.S. stock market is a buffalo, then A-share is a more solid recovery bull. Assets should also be priced on the basis of comparison. A-share is the optimal allocation of domestic residents and global capital in the current environment.