The industry related policies have been continuously released, the registration system reform has been continuously promoted; the liquidity environment has remained loose, and incremental funds are constantly pouring in; the valuation of the securities sector is at a low level, and there is a possibility of supplementary increase; the performance of securities companies continues to improve, and the June performance express to be disclosed may exceed expectations, etc. There are also a small number of securities companies hold a cautious view, that last weeks increase has been too large, suggest controlling positions.
Looking back on the performance of securities companies in the bull market in 2015, the relative returns of securities companies are mainly accumulated in the early stage of the bull market, but from the perspective of absolute return, the securities companies stocks are suitable for holding in the bull market all the time.
Last weeks stock index trend source wind
How much room does the agency give for growth?
The decline of risk-free interest rate will lead to a systematic increase in the valuation of the stock market. Guotai Junans non bank team gave the most powerful support for the bull market, believing that this will bring about a faster than expected improvement in the fundamentals of securities companies and usher in a double rise in fundamentals and valuations.
In terms of valuation, a number of institutions believe that there is a greater uplift potential.
The non syndicate team of Kaiyuan Securities said that the stock market rose sharply last week, the trading volume and the scale of the two financing accelerated, and the profit growth of securities companies exceeded expectations. They were optimistic about the continuation of Davis double killing of securities companies. It is suggested that we should pay attention to the opportunity of valuation rise of big securities companies.
On the sustainability of policy, many securities companies give an optimistic analysis.
Soochow Securities said that the reform of the capital market is at the right time, securities companies are sounding the clarion call of a new era. The capital market reform was carried out in an orderly manner, and industrial policies were relaxed to guide the transformation and development of securities companies and promote the long-term alpha upgrading of the industry. The market liquidity is abundant, and the medium and short term beta attributes are highlighted.
Can we participate in the short term? Journalists also found the cautious point of view.
The non bank team of Dongxing securities told the Shanghai stock exchange that it was optimistic about the medium-term market of securities companies, but the short-term position should be controlled. Under the expectation of policy bull + Buffalo in the second half of the year, as a market vane, the securities sector is expected to usher in a structural market, with a space of 30-50%, which has reached half of the target in nearly a week. Therefore, although the medium-term plate upward space is still considerable, but the short-term rise is too large, it is recommended to control the position.
The last round of bull market was resumed,
The bull market has arrived! Investors who agree with this point of view all focus on securities companies. How will the board perform in the future? Taking history as a mirror, the bull market in 2015 was resumed, and the commercial stocks with cash bonds were roughly divided into three stages. There are also differences in the performance of securities companies.
2014-2015 securities index trend, data source wind
The last round of bull market of securities companies can be divided into three waves:
The first wave of increase of 30%, from October 28 to November 13, 2014, the collective rise of 26% in 13 trading days;
The third wave was 35% higher in 20 days from March 12 to April 9, 2015.
Northeast Securities believes that in terms of absolute return, the securities trader index (Shenwan level II) has increased by 250% from July 2014 to June 2015, among which there is still 70% room for absolute return when the relative income reaches the highest point for the first time. Therefore, the relative returns of securities companies are mainly accumulated in the early stage of the bull market, but from the perspective of absolute returns, the securities companies stocks are suitable for continuous holding in the bull market.
What about the performance of that stock?
However, when it reached the market peak on June 15, 2015, Huatai Securities (listed securities companies listed before July 2014) was not the one with the highest cumulative increase. Western securities stood out in the second wave of market opened in mid February 2015, and Huatai Securities was slightly weaker than Everbright Securities and ranked third.
The best explanation is that the circulation of Western securities was relatively small at that time (nearly half of the initial initial shares were not lifted), and if we only looked at the performance of the first half of 2015, the stock prices of Dongxing securities and Dongfang securities which were just listed at the beginning of the year were actually better than those of Western securities.
Everbright Securities is the pioneer in this round of securities market. From the perspective of individual stocks, the stocks with a large rise in recent years are not competitive (leading securities companies with pricing ability at asset side, two China and one China) and leading business models (such as Dongfang fortune). It seems different from the bull market in my memory.
If we rank the stocks / net assets of trading financial assets of various securities companies in 2019 to find out the securities companies with the largest self support flexibility, Guotai Junan finds that the securities companies with the highest ratio of stocks to net assets are CICC, Guojin securities, CITIC Securities, Tianfeng securities, Dongxing securities, Xingye securities, Huatai Securities, Shanxi securities and Northeast Securities. As the equity assets of CICC, CITIC Securities and Huatai Securities are mainly hedging assets of derivatives, and have nothing to do with directional self operation; at the same time, the valuation level of Tianfeng securities and Shanxi securities is much higher than that of the same industry, which does not conform to the characteristics of undervalued stocks, so they are eliminated.
Of course, some analysts suggest that when individual investors dont know how to choose their target, they may as well consider securities companies ETF and other investment varieties. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4425
Of course, some analysts suggest that when individual investors dont know how to choose their target, they may as well consider securities companies ETF and other investment varieties.