So, is the bull market really coming? Everyone is waiting for the opening of a shares today.
These events may affect the market trend
Lets take a look at the major events that may affect the market trend in these two days.
1. CITIC Group and Huijin of the Central Committee join hands to refute rumors! Is the merger of leading securities companies going to be yellow?
On Thursday and Friday, the trading volume of the two markets exceeded trillion for two consecutive days. This weekend, the topic of bull market is full of wechat groups and circle of friends.
The rumor about the merger of CITIC Securities and China Securities construction investment is a matter of great concern in the recent capital market, and is also considered by the market as a major factor in the outbreak of securities companies. However, on the evening of July 5, CITIC Securities and China Construction Investment once again clarified the rumors. This time, it was directly the shareholders of the two securities companies who helped to clarify the rumors: CITIC Group confirmed that it had not discussed any reorganization and merger plan of CITIC Securities and CSCI, nor signed any agreement with Central Huijin Investment Co., Ltd. involving the acquisition of CSC shares agreement. Central Huijin also said that the company does not have any material information related to CSCI securities that should be disclosed but not disclosed.
2. SMIC International: determine the issue price of 27.46 yuan / share
On the evening of July 5, SMIC International (688981) disclosed its IPO and IPO announcement on the science and technology innovation board. The companys IPO price was 27.46 yuan / share, and the price earnings ratio after the issuance was 109.25 times when the issuer did not exercise the over allotment option. The initial issue of 1.686 billion shares, accounting for 23.62% of the total share capital after the issuance. It is estimated that the company will use 20 billion yuan of raised funds for its projects.
3. Run in at 3100! The number of new accounts opened by securities companies increased by 30%, and over-the-counter capital allocation was ready to move
The reporter learned from Guotai Junan that Guotai Junans online account opening rose by more than 30% month on month in June, among which the post-90s account opening proportion is the highest, reaching 30%. In addition, CITIC Securities learned that the number of new accounts opened in June increased by about 30% month on month. Recently, the hot market makes the over-the-counter capital allocation begin to rise again. On microblog, wechat and other platforms, search with the keywords of capital allocation and account opening. Many advertising of funding platforms are hidden among them. Some platforms have chanted slogans such as high yield, low risk, 3-10 times leverage, 10 times of stock and 20 times of futures.
4. This week, more than 55 billion flood came
Statistics show that 32 stocks will be lifted next week, excluding the science and technology innovation board. Based on the latest closing price, the total market value of the lifting ban is 55.9 billion yuan. According to the data of shareholders at the end of the first quarter, the total number of shareholders of these 32 shares reached 1.4 million. The market value of the seven shares lifted is more than 1 billion yuan, including Hongta securities, Xusheng shares, Zhibang home furnishings, Ruineng technology, Fuman electronics, lanfan medical, Baida Jinggong, etc.
5. The situation of epidemic prevention and control in the capital continued to stabilize, and the situation was completely controllable
On July 4, a press conference on epidemic prevention and control in Beijing announced that: for six consecutive days, the number of confirmed local cases in Beijing remained at a single digit, and the number of discharged cases was increasing. The situation of epidemic prevention and control in the capital continued to stabilize and improve, and the situation was completely controllable.
6. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission publishes list of major illegal shareholders of Bancassurance institutions for the first time
In order to further strengthen market discipline, regulate shareholder behavior, play a deterrent role, and strengthen market supervision, the cbcirc has disclosed to the public 38 major illegal shareholders of Bancassurance institutions. They include: Hangzhou Pingzhang Tools Co., Ltd., Zhejiang Guoheng Industrial Co., Ltd., Baotou beibenmingke electromechanical Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Mingde Investment Group Co., Ltd., and Shenzhen zhenglaida Industrial Co., Ltd.
7. The rules of reducing the holdings of the scientific and Technological Innovation Board! Two types of institutional investors hold admission tickets
On July 3, Shanghai Stock Exchange issued the detailed rules for the implementation of shares reduction by shareholders of listed companies on the science and technology innovation board by way of inquiry transfer and allotment to specific institutional investors (hereinafter referred to as the implementation rules).
The implementation rules optimize the inquiry transfer system. Inquiry transfer to determine the 30% off base price. According to the detailed rules for implementation, the lower limit of the transfer price specified in the invitation for subscription shall not be lower than 70% of the average trading price of shares of Kechuang 20 trading days before the date of sending the invitation for subscription. At the same time, the number of shares to be transferred individually or in total shall not be less than 1% of the total number of shares of the company.
8. SFC: abolishing the limit of margin withdrawal ratio for refinancing business of securities companies
9. Beishang capitals floating profit in the year reached 281.6 billion, with heavy positions in science and technology medicine stocks
According to the formula market value of shares held at the end of the period - (the value of stocks held at the beginning of the period + net purchases during the period) / (the value of stocks held at the beginning of the period + net purchases during the period), as of the latest closing date, the capital profit of Beishang was 18.5%, significantly better than that of the market. From the absolute value of profit, the market value of Beishang capital position is 18100, and the floating profit amount in the year reaches 281.6 billion yuan. In the first half of this year, in addition to consumer stocks, individual stocks of science and technology and pharmaceutical industry were also favored. Compared with last year, the number of science and technology stocks and pharmaceutical stocks accounted for a large proportion of the newly added individual stocks with a shareholding ratio of more than 10%.
10. The first batch of registered strategic placement funds of gem will be sold from tomorrow
On June 28, the first four registered strategic placement funds on GEM were approved. In addition to ten thousand funds, Wells Fargo, Dacheng, and China Europe have all issued the prospectus and share sale announcement of their two-year fixed hybrid funds on the gem. The three new funds mentioned above will be put on sale on the same day on July 7, with an upper limit of 3 billion raised. In order to promote the sale, the new funds are mostly sold in the companys direct selling platform, banks, securities companies, third-party sales and other channels at the same time. The above-mentioned Funds adopt the form of two-year regular opening operation, and the products are not affected by daily redemption during the closing period, so as to avoid the impact of capital inflow and outflow on the net value of the fund.
Securities companies: waiting for 3500
Over the weekend, many securities companies released medium-term A-share investment strategies and research reports, most of which were more optimistic about the trend of a shares.
Anxin Securities: recovery bull is the overall bull market will return to the main line of growth
According to an article issued by Chen Guo team of Anxin securities, the current background is that global liquidity is overflowing and no obvious tightening is seen recently. Chinas economic data continues to exceed expectations, and the market can expect that the year-on-year growth rate of Chinas economy and corporate profits will gradually rise in the next few quarters. This is the logic of A-share recovery bull, which is also the logic of A-share bull market. At present, the environment and economy are recovering moderately, but science and technology are ushering in a strong boom. The undervalued plate focuses on securities companies, real estate, building materials, insurance and so on in the short term. This round of economic recovery, growth and prosperity is better. We believe that the market will return to the main line of growth after the underpricing plate has completed reasonable make-up, and after the lifting of the ban and other concerns have eased.
CSCI: style switching is not over, insurance, securities companies, real estate and banks are still worth adding
According to the research report released by the strategy team of CSCI on July 5, the style switch is not over, but will last for a long time. The securities sector was the first to rise by 20%, and the valuation has been improved to a certain extent. However, under the background of financial reform and capital market becoming bigger and stronger, there is still room for growth. In the insurance sector, under the background of loose credit and rising monetary interest rates, investment opportunities are still prominent. The valuation level of the real estate industry is still low, but the performance will improve with the economic recovery. Insurance, brokerages, real estate and banks are still worth adding.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: looking forward to the bull market! In the second half of the year, there was at least one very bull like rally
The markets reaction to short-term negative is passive, which shows that the weight of medium-term optimistic expectation in short-term judgment has increased. In the second half of the year, there will be at least a big rebound that is very much like a bull market, and we are looking forward to the bull market. The specific logic includes: (1) the upward trend of A-share fundamentals is expected to be confirmed in the second half of the year. We should innovate direct monetary policy tools to help enterprises improve their financial statements. The residents savings rate has improved, and the sales potential of real estate and optional consumption needs to be released. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is now at the end of the recession. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought more thorough clearance. Inventory and manufacturing investment cycles are delayed rather than absent. (2) In the second half of the year, it is generally verified that there is a high probability that the prosperity will rise. The combination of reform expectation fermentation and the mutual promotion of science and technology growth and the improvement of risk preference are expected to become the main attack direction in the second half of the year. (3) If the logic of the rise of the stock market is straightened out, the stage incremental game can be expected. (4) The 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC in 2021 may be the key year of Chinas political cycle. The reform and improvement of risk preference resonate with the structural recovery of fundamentals, which is expected to open up the market upward space. Medium term optimistic expectation is an important basis for short-term market strength.
There will be no complete style switching in the short term, and the leading technology consumption is still the main line in the medium term. Alpha should also be selected for the repair of undervalue. It is only suggested to participate in the opportunity of leading the rise of securities companies and real estate. Once the internal circulation of undervalued value begins to spread, it is a signal that the style returns to the consumption of science and technology.
CITIC Securities: undervalued boards make-up is a preview of future style switching, which will continue for 1-2 weeks
CITIC Securities released its investment strategy on July 5, pointing out that the make-up of undervalued stocks is not a style switch, but a short-term style rebalancing and a preview of future style switching. It is expected that the supplementary rise will continue for 1-2 weeks, but the growth rate will slow down; after the lifting pressure and performance verification, the market will return to equilibrium. From the late third quarter, finance and cycle will become one of the main lines of the next round of trend rise lasting for several months. In terms of configuration, in the recent up market of undervalued sectors, it is suggested to appropriately add real estate in big finance, as well as optional consumer sectors for economic improvement, including household appliances, cosmetics, automobiles and spare parts.
Investment strategy: the second half of the year will present a round rise, mixed style characteristics
Haitong medium-term A-share investment strategy: the market hopes to break through the bull market
Haitong macro Jiang Chao: blue chips of financial and real estate value are expected to rise again
Haitong macro Jiang Chao released a research report on July 5 to analyze the rotation of asset prices. Jiang Chao pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic this year, in order to avoid economic recession, a new round of leverage cycle has begun. In May, the growth rate of broad money M2 rose to 11.1%, a three-year high. With the start of a new round of leverage cycle, economic inflation is expected to pick up, interest rates will re-enter the upward cycle, major asset allocation will shift from bond bull market to stock bull market, and in the stock market, financial, real estate and other value blue chips are expected to rise again.