First of all, the basis of underpricing is the extreme Industry Valuation differentiation, and the short-term catalyst is the improvement of industry meso data. However, after the accelerated influx of funds, the future growth rate is expected to slow down, and the short-term fundamental verification period also restricts the upward space of the plate. Short term style rebalancing is not expected to evolve into a medium-term style switch. Secondly, it is expected that the make-up price will last for 1-2 weeks. The pressure of holding reduction brought by the peak of lifting the ban in July and the high valuation can not be ignored. The relative pressure of science and technology sector is relatively large; while the consumption and pharmaceutical sector is still in the performance verification period. After the lifting pressure and performance verification, the market is expected to return to equilibrium. Finally, we need to pay close attention to the breaking factors of market equilibrium such as overseas epidemic situation and domestic liquidity expectation. The U.S. epidemic is in the second outbreak channel, the critical point of the impact of the US stock market is approaching, while the domestic macro liquidity expectations and market liquidity relay are more disturbed. After the overseas epidemic situation and liquidity expectations are broken, it is expected that at the end of the third quarter, the market will start a trend upward trend for several months, and then the cycle and financial sector will become one of the main lines of the market.
Haitong Securities: the market is expected to break through and set a new high in this round of bull market
u2460 In the first half of this year, under the background of the global spread of the epidemic, A-share has strong resilience, which is due to the abundant macro and micro liquidity, and the bull market pattern started from 19 / 1 has not changed. u2461 In the second half of the year, corporate profits will rise to double digits year on year. The bull market is driven by two wheels of profit valuation. The market is expected to break through and set a new high in this round of bull market. u2462 The market will spread from local opportunity to round rise, and the main line of science and technology and securities companies will be reinvigorated, and the periodic supplementary rise of low matching industries, such as bank real estate and cycle, will be underestimated.
CSCI Securities: style switch comes on schedule, financial cycle continues to dominate
In the first week of July 2020, driven by the securities companies and the real estate sector, A-share shows an obvious style switching. This style switch is not over, but will last for a long time. The securities sector was the first to rise by 20%, and the valuation has been improved to a certain extent. However, under the background of financial reform and capital market becoming bigger and stronger, there is still room for growth. In the insurance sector, under the background of loose credit and rising monetary interest rates, investment opportunities are still prominent. The valuation level of the real estate industry is still low, but the performance will improve with the economic recovery. Insurance, brokerages, real estate and banks are still worth adding.
Guotai Junan Securities: Breakthrough 3300 points, waiting for 3500 points
The essence of the current underpricing of A-share lies in the downward trend of risk-free interest rate, and the driving force is that the expected return rate of bank financial management is reduced, and the phenomenon of capital chasing assets is further strengthened. Therefore, we are optimistic about the future market, breaking through 3300 points, waiting for 3500 points, attacking securities companies and leading stocks with undervalued performance, cycle first, then consumption and technology.
Guoxin Securities: limited switching space, consumption upgrading, technological innovation is still the main trend opportunity
At present, the most concerned issue in the market is undoubtedly the continuity of style switching. Behind this problem is the high differentiation of trend and valuation between plates in the past year or so. It is true that the extreme differentiation of valuation may lead to a certain repair of the market, but it is a short-term pulse. Looking back on the history of A-share, every important style or plate switch is behind the business cycle switch. Never seen a big change in market style due to valuation. In the spring tide of growth stocks from 2013 to 2015, two abnormal fluctuations and two rebounds after fusing were all significantly dominated by growth stocks. Until the second half of 2016, after the supply side reform, nominal economic growth picked up, the profitability of traditional blue chip companies improved significantly, and the market style completely switched from growth to value. Some readers may ask, what about the second half of 2014? One belt, one road catalyst, triggered the markets long-term expected changes in output capacity in the second half of 2014. But we dont have the catalyst at present.
To sum up, procyclical undervalued sectors need to make up for and repair under extreme differentiation, but the space for switching is limited. Consumption upgrading and technological innovation are still the main trend opportunities in the future market.
Everbright Securities: focus on policy signals and enjoy trend extrapolation
Looking back, the current A-share market value / m2 is at the historical quantile of 59.6% since 2011, which means that the currency driven A-share valuation repair has been basically completed, and the driving force of A-shares rise in the future will switch from currency driven to profit driven. However, before the recovery of corporate profits is generally recognized by the market, the risk of excessive tightening of policies or the excessive concern of the market for tightening policies may lead to the weakening of market actions in the short term, which is called a breathtaking leap from money driven to profit driven. Starting from this week, CPI and M2 year-on-year growth data in June will be released one after another. Investors need to pay attention to whether the above economic data will trigger the markets worries about policy tightening again. In the long run, even if the markets excessive worry about policy tightening leads to a temporary decline in the market, the profits of listed companies are gradually recovering. In the future, when the recovery of profits is generally recognized by the market, there will still be a driving force for the market to continue to rise.
China Merchants Securities: in the second half of the year, it will present the features of round rise, general rise and mixed style
From the perspective of economic fundamentals, the economic fundamentals will continue to improve in the second half of 2020, and the undervalued financial cycle is expected to usher in the improvement of corporate profits. On this basis, the undervalued sector represented by finance will have a wave of significant valuation repair in the second half of the year. However, the recovery of economic cycle is not the only main line at present. Science and technology has entered the upward cycle, the trend of online consumption and home consumption is still in place. With the acceleration of real estate completion cycle, the demand for medicine and medical care brought by the epidemic will continue. Therefore, from the perspective of performance, it should be the traditional emerging industries to work together to improve performance. The valuation of emerging consumer medicine technology is relatively expensive, and there may be some downward pressure on valuation. However, there are still many targets for reasonable valuation and performance improvement.
From the perspective of incremental funds, in the first half of the year, the situation of active partial equity funds and Beishang funds group consumption of science and technology medicine was broken by the entry of new incremental funds. At present, the active partial equity funds and Beishang still continue to flow in, while the financing balance increases, insurance may increase, and the incremental funds present mixed characteristics. Therefore, the extreme style change in the second half of 2014 may be difficult to achieve, and the extreme situation of science and technology consumption dominated by medicine in the first half of 2020 will also be broken, and the second half of 2020 will present the characteristics of round rise, general rise and mixed style.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: looking forward to the bull market! In the second half of the year, there was at least one very bull like rally
The markets reaction to short-term negative is passive, which shows that the weight of medium-term optimistic expectation in short-term judgment has increased. In the second half of the year, there will be at least a big rebound that is very much like a bull market, and we are looking forward to the bull market. The specific logic includes: (1) the upward trend of A-share fundamentals is expected to be confirmed in the second half of the year. We should innovate direct monetary policy tools to help enterprises improve their financial statements. The residents savings rate has improved, and the sales potential of real estate and optional consumption needs to be released. Novel coronavirus pneumonia is now at the end of the recession. The new crown pneumonia epidemic has brought more thorough clearance. Inventory and manufacturing investment cycles are delayed rather than absent. (2) In the second half of the year, it is generally verified that there is a high probability that the prosperity will rise. The combination of reform expectation fermentation and the mutual promotion of science and technology growth and the improvement of risk preference are expected to become the main attack direction in the second half of the year. (3) If the logic of the rise of the stock market is straightened out, the stage incremental game can be expected. (4) The 100th anniversary of the founding of the CPC in 2021 may be the key year of Chinas political cycle. The reform and improvement of risk preference resonate with the structural recovery of fundamentals, which is expected to open up the market upward space. Medium term optimistic expectation is an important basis for short-term market strength.
There will be no complete style switching in the short term, and the leading technology consumption is still the main line in the medium term. Alpha should also be selected for the repair of undervalue. It is only suggested to participate in the opportunity of leading the rise of securities companies and real estate. Once the internal circulation of undervalued value begins to spread, it is a signal that the style returns to the consumption of science and technology.
YueKai Securities: the voice of the bull market is gradually ringing, and the probability of horizontal volatility is large
The current market style switching comes from the valuation repair demand of the low position plate. Whether the long-term style switching is formed still needs to be further observed. Taking into account the limited marginal improvement space of enterprise performance in the third and fourth quarters, and the superposition of complex external factors, the possibility of subsequent market shocks is also increasing after a short-term rapid rise.
In terms of allocation, we can focus on the following four main lines: (1) the prosperity of science and technology stocks is rising, focusing on consumer electronics, 5g and other related investment fields; (2) benefiting from the reform expectation and the recovery of market sentiment, we are optimistic about the rising space of securities companies; (3) blue chips of medicine and biology, food and beverage, household appliances and other consumer blue chips; (4) the state-owned enterprise reform superimposes on the improvement of infrastructure orders in the future Blue chips.
Open source Securities: big finance is just the beginning, dont hesitate
After the worst of the epidemic, monetary policy turned to credit expansion, the risk-free interest rate center was determined to go up, and the balance of value / growth was rebalancing. Month on month improvement after the outbreak + the cyclical recovery starting from Q4 in 2019will form a joint force with broad credit and fiscal easing to jointly promote economic recovery. This recovery has been gradually recognized by the bond and commodity markets, but the pricing of value stocks has just begun. At the beginning of style switching, opportunities will exist in a wide range of value stocks, and the gold digging moment for early entrants has begun. The procyclical value plate has released sufficient winning rate signal. The start of the big finance is just the beginning, so investors should not have any hesitation: first, building materials, construction machinery, construction machinery, which benefit from the rapid recovery of investment certainty; second, chemical industry and coal, which are just priced on a month on month basis, are at the bottom of the cycle; third, real estate and non-bank are undervalued and there is huge room for repair; fourth, pro cyclical consumption Home appliances, liquor, cars. Source of this article: Yang Bin, responsible editor of securities companies in China_ NF4368
After the worst of the epidemic, monetary policy turned to credit expansion, the risk-free interest rate center was determined to go up, and the balance of value / growth was rebalancing. Month on month improvement after the outbreak + the cyclical recovery starting from Q4 in 2019will form a joint force with broad credit and fiscal easing to jointly promote economic recovery. This recovery has been gradually recognized by the bond and commodity markets, but the pricing of value stocks has just begun. At the beginning of style switching, opportunities will exist in a wide range of value stocks, and the gold digging moment for early entrants has begun. The procyclical value plate has released sufficient winning rate signal.
The start of the big finance is just the beginning, so investors should not have any hesitation: first, building materials, construction machinery, construction machinery, which benefit from the rapid recovery of investment certainty; second, chemical industry and coal, which are just priced on a month on month basis, are at the bottom of the cycle; third, real estate and non-bank are undervalued and there is huge room for repair; fourth, pro cyclical consumption Home appliances, liquor, cars.