Im afraid the hot water in the Yangtze River Delta is just beginning

category:Finance
 Im afraid the hot water in the Yangtze River Delta is just beginning


The real estate market tight hoop curse returns. Hangzhou is the first city to take action in the recent hot housing and land markets.

Hangzhou housing security and real estate administration bureau recently issued the notice on further clarifying the relevant requirements for public sale of commercial housing notarized lottery numbers to adjust the lottery rules for new houses.

In brief, the policy can be summarized into four main points

1. Sales restriction: talents are given priority to purchase houses, and there will be a 5-year sales period.

2. Purchase restriction: raise the recognition threshold of no house family: the non limited purchase families in this city need to have no house and pay social security for one year in the restricted area.

3. Shake limit: a family can only participate in one project at a time.

It is not difficult to see that these tightening measures are aimed at curbing speculation.

This years Hangzhou property market is absolutely eye-catching. Despite the novel coronavirus pneumonia outbreak, the Hangzhou property market is still out of the independent market.

First of all, one by one, ten thousand people shake..

According to statistics, in the first half of this year, there have been five ten thousand people shaking projects in Hangzhou, including Xixi residence, which has signed up for nearly 60000 people, happy lane with ten thousand people shaking for four times, and rongchuang City, whose winning rate is only about 0.5%. Within four months, the lottery winning rate of 21 projects in Hangzhou was less than 5%. The tight supply and demand of the real estate market is displayed incisively and vividly here.

From the more objective transaction data, according to the statistics of Kerry Research Center, since March, the property market in Hangzhou has recovered rapidly. The residential transaction area in a single month is more than 1 million square meters, showing a rising trend month by month. In June, it reached 1.95 million square meters, a new high in nearly three years.

Secondly, for several consecutive years, Hangzhou has been one of the cities with the highest land sales income in China, and the land market has been very hot.

More importantly, the hot property market in Hangzhou is the epitome of the rapid warming of the property market in the Yangtze River Delta region. With the gradual fading of the impact of the epidemic, the real estate market in the Yangtze River Delta region is the first to recover, and the hot spots are concentrated. Both the volume of transaction, the price of housing and the heat of land market are the first in each region.

The experience of regulation and control in the past four years tells us that every time the property market reaches a stage high point, there will be regulation cooling water pouring down. This year is no exception.

Patch is still the main form of current regulatory policy. Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of Kerry Research Center, said that in general, the goal of the new lottery deal in Hangzhou is to fill the loopholes in the previous lottery policy and the policy of giving priority to purchasing houses for talents.

On February 24, Hangzhou issued a document explicitly supporting the priority of purchasing houses for high-level talents, among which the purchase of class a talents is free of lottery numbers, and the priority supply of class B, C, D and e talents is not higher than 20%.

Yang Kewei pointed out that from the actual situation, for various purposes, developers generally implement according to the top grid ratio, which greatly increases the winning rate of talent channels, while the lottery winning rate of normal channels is further compressed. For example, the overall lottery winning rate of Yuanyang Xixi mansion is about 1%, while the winning rate of talent purchasing is as high as 52%; and the winning rate of many projects is as high as 100%.

Part4

In addition to Hangzhou, Dongguan, known as the back garden of Shenzhen, also issued a tightening policy on the same day.

Dongguan Municipal Bureau of housing and urban rural development issued the notice on Further Strengthening the management of pre-sale (sale) of commercial housing, which cracked down on developers hoarding of sales and tightened the price limit of new houses.

Dongguan property market new deal, the following three points attract attention:

1. To crack down on hoarding sales: apply for pre-sale of the project, with a volume of no less than 30000 square meters each time; disclose all the houses sold in one time within 10 days after obtaining the pre-sale permit.

2. Price limit upgrade: the price increase of new houses in the same region shall not exceed 10% in 3 months; the house price shall not be higher than 5% of the same house price in the previous period.

3. The real name system of house purchase shall not change the name of the buyer without authorization after subscription.

According to the statistics of the central index Institute, Dongguans second-hand house prices rose by 1.13% month on month in June, ranking the top three among 100 cities, second only to Shenzhen and Wuxi. Previous data said that Dongguan second-hand house prices rose more than Shenzhen in May, ranking the first in the country, which once triggered widespread heated discussion.

The record price of new houses has also increased significantly. This year, some new houses in Dongguan have exceeded 40000 yuan per square meter. In the most concerned area of Songshan Lake, the unit price of some buildings has reached 50000 yuan per square meter.

The rise of Dongguans property market is mainly driven by two factors: first, Dongguan, while undertaking some industries in Shenzhen, also receives the overflow of strong demand for house purchase in Shenzhen. Second, Dongguan property market policy is relatively loose, second-hand housing is not limited to purchase, and some developers and second-hand housing owners are reluctant to sell, to some extent, boosting speculation.

Some analysts believe that there is still upward momentum in Dongguan property market, and there is still room for upgrading regulatory policies.

In fact, the upgrading of the property market regulation has already appeared.

In the past few months, the central government departments such as the central bank, the Ministry of finance, and the National Bureau of statistics have repeatedly reiterated their position of insisting on housing without speculation.

Its not just talk. Recently, the demand side stimulus policies, including reducing the down payment ratio and loosening the restrictions on purchase, have been withdrawn rapidly. At least 12 places, including Zhumadian, Guangzhou, Qingdao and so on, have already seen the one-day tour or several day tour under the control of deregulation.

In addition, from the several asymmetric interest rate cuts of LPR, we can see that the government is very cautious about the policy loosening of the real estate financial end.

In the past, Hainans economy was highly dependent on real estate. According to a research report released by E-House Real Estate Research Institute last year, Hainans economy is most dependent on real estate in 2018. In that year, its real estate development investment accounted for the largest proportion of GDP, accounting for 35.5%.

Two years ago, Hainan proposed to break the real estate dependence with the determination of a strong man. We have successively implemented extremely strict control measures, such as the nationwide purchase restriction and the existing housing sales system. In 2019, the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing in Hainan Province will decrease by 42.1% and 38.8% respectively.

Secondly, the property market recovered rapidly after the epidemic, and the wind direction is likely to change accordingly.

The recovery of the real estate market after the outbreak made me feel a bit surprised, and it recovered faster than I expected and expected, said Huang Yu, executive vice president of the China Media Research Institute. In fact, most local property market transactions in may have basically returned to the level before the epidemic. In June, residential transactions in 50 cities were slightly higher than the average level of the same period in recent three years. The performance of benchmark real estate enterprises in the first half of the year also basically recovered to the level of last year. Market recovery means that the previous bail-out and support policies are no longer necessary. Moreover, driven by the relatively loose currency, the real estate market in some cities is on the rise. Without policy intervention, the next round of general rise may be promoted. Therefore, in the second half of the year, a larger scale of property tightening policy may appear in more places where the property market is overheated. Source of this article: National through train editor: Chen Hequn_ NB12679

The recovery of the real estate market after the outbreak made me feel a bit surprised, and it recovered faster than I expected and expected, said Huang Yu, executive vice president of the China Media Research Institute.

In fact, most local property market transactions in may have basically returned to the level before the epidemic. In June, residential transactions in 50 cities were slightly higher than the average level of the same period in recent three years. The performance of benchmark real estate enterprises in the first half of the year also basically recovered to the level of last year.

Market recovery means that the previous bail-out and support policies are no longer necessary. Moreover, driven by the relatively loose currency, the real estate market in some cities is on the rise. Without policy intervention, the next round of general rise may be promoted.