It is not worth advocating to sell real estate to speculate in stocks or to speculate in stocks with loans. However, the experience of the above investors reflects the phenomenon that the market has made an index but not made money since this year.
Now that the bull market is coming, how can we seize the opportunity? Learning from history is a good choice.
The recent big rise, let a share fire on hot search, market sentiment can be seen.
But only a few people made money in the first half of the year. Wind data shows that since the beginning of the year, a total of 1989 stocks have registered gains (excluding the new shares listed this year), and 1757 stocks are still down. Among the rising stocks, 1021 stocks increased by more than 20%, 379 stocks increased by 10% - 20%, and 589 stocks increased less than 10%.
Eight industry indexes fell, including mining, banking, steel, transportation, textile and clothing, building decoration, public utilities and real estate.
The characteristics of structural bull market are very obvious, and the recent rise in bank real estate is also the result of the previous over fall valuation repair. However, it is biased to negate the coming of a systematic bull market with valuation repair market. At present, more and more characteristics are in line with the bull market in 2014-2015.
First of all, the transaction volume is more than one trillion yuan, and the incremental capital is running in. Wind data shows that as of July 2, the financing balance has reached 1155.011 billion yuan, exceeding the level of 1152.377 billion yuan in February 2015. Since the beginning of the year, the net inflow of northward funds has reached 148.460 billion yuan, and the accumulated net inflow since its opening is 1141.937 billion yuan.
On July 2, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan
Third, the boom fund reappears. Since June, explosive funds have reappeared. According to public data, the total shares of newly established funds reached 1064.836 billion in the first half of this year, setting a new record in the scale of half a year in the past decade. This years 10 billion fund types are the most similar to those in 2015, all of which are equity funds with more explosive funds, the industry said
Founder Securities strategy research team previously published a research report that most of the bull market in history can be divided into three stages: the first stage is valuation driven stage, the second stage is the stage of switching from valuation to performance, and the third stage is the stage of performance driven.
For example, the bull market in 1996-2001 can be divided into the valuation market from January 1996 to May 1997, the switch from valuation to performance from May 1997 to December 1999, and the double upward market from January 2000 to June 2001.
The first stage: before the interest rate cut from July 2014 to November 2014, the bull market started, the growth style did not show advantages, and the valuation and performance driven five five points.
The second stage: the interest rate cut in November 2014 - at the end of 2014, it was the most outstanding financial style, while the growth plate was the bottom with single digit growth. The few gains over the period were driven by performance.
From the macro background, the leading industries of each bull market conform to the background of the times. Will the recent rise of big financial real estate change this historical law?
Shenwan Hongyuan securities strategy team said that historically, the style switching of large band usually required harsh conditions. The confirmation of economic recovery or the falsification of the leading logic of science and technology consumption may be the current conditions for triggering a complete style switch, which is not yet available in the short term.
Looking back on the history of A-share, every important style or plate switch is behind the business cycle switch. Never seen a big change in market style due to valuation, said Yan Xiang team of Guoxin Securities strategy
So, what will be the main line throughout the second half of the year?
The leading technology consumption is still the main line in the medium term. Alpha should also be selected for the repair of undervalue. It is only suggested to participate in the opportunity of leading the rise of securities companies and real estate. Once the internal circulation of undervalued value begins to spread, it is a signal that the style returns to the consumption of science and technology. According to the strategy team of Shenwan Hongyuan securities, the second half of the year has generally verified that the upward trend of prosperity is a big probability. The combination of the fermentation of reform expectations and the mutual promotion of the upward growth of science and technology and the improvement of risk preference are expected to become the main direction of attack in the second half of the year.
Yang Zhenyu, an analyst at Zhongyuan securities, said that in the early stage, valuations of large and medium-sized stocks were differentiated to the extreme, which superimposed the elimination of upstream inventory, resulting in sufficient demand for large cap stocks to make up; the short-term lifting peak of Internal Medicine Innovation Board increased the risk of growth plate; the medium and long-term basis of science and technology cycle and growth style has not been damaged, optimistic about the future market return to growth style, and the main line of consumption + technology is still effective.
Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of China Securities News u00b7 China Securities Net_ NBJ9931