It is not worth advocating to sell real estate to speculate in stocks or to speculate in stocks with loans. However, the experience of the above investors reflects the phenomenon that the market has made an index but not made money since this year.
Now that the bull market is coming, how can we seize the opportunity? Learning from history is a good choice.
Will structural cattle become system cows?
The recent big rise, let a share fire on hot search, market sentiment can be seen.
Among the 28 shenwanyi industry indexes, 20 have recorded an increase since the beginning of the year, with leisure services, medical biology and food and beverage as the top ones, with cumulative increases of 48.7%, 39.73% and 29.35% respectively.
The characteristics of structural bull market are very obvious, and the recent rise in bank real estate is also the result of the previous over fall valuation repair. However, it is biased to negate the coming of a systematic bull market with valuation repair market. At present, more and more characteristics are in line with the bull market in 2014-2015.
On July 2, the turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded one trillion yuan
In the recent market, when the weight of blue chips soared, the gem index first suppressed and then rose, showing a certain seesaw effect. In the bull market, how to grasp the plate rotation is the key to profitability. In the past few rounds of bull market, securities dealers have found the following rotation rules:
Founder Securities strategy research team previously published a research report that most of the bull market in history can be divided into three stages: the first stage is valuation driven stage, the second stage is the stage of switching from valuation to performance, and the third stage is the stage of performance driven.
For example, the bull market in 1996-2001 can be divided into the valuation market from January 1996 to May 1997, the switch from valuation to performance from May 1997 to December 1999, and the double upward market from January 2000 to June 2001.
The first stage: before the interest rate cut from July 2014 to November 2014, the bull market started, the growth style did not show advantages, and the valuation and performance driven five five points.
The second stage: the interest rate cut in November 2014 - at the end of 2014, it was the most outstanding financial style, while the growth plate was the bottom with single digit growth. The few gains over the period were driven by performance.
The third stage: from the beginning of 2015 to June 2015, the bull market accelerated, the growth style was significantly dominant, and the 82 points contribution of valuation and performance drove the plate to rise sharply.
2u3001 There is always a main line running through the front and back
Haitong Securities strategy team has previously published a research report, saying that there will be leading industries during the bull market, and the profit is its decisive variable, such as the real estate industry chain of bull market in 2005-2007 and mobile Internet in bull market in 2012-2015. Of course, there will be a main line, but also periodic round up.
From the macro background, the leading industries of each bull market conform to the background of the times. Will the recent rise of big financial real estate change this historical law?
Shenwan Hongyuan securities strategy team said that historically, the style switching of large band usually required harsh conditions. The confirmation of economic recovery or the falsification of the leading logic of science and technology consumption may be the current conditions for triggering a complete style switch, which is not yet available in the short term.
Looking back on the history of A-share, every important style or plate switch is behind the business cycle switch. Never seen a big change in market style due to valuation, said Yan Xiang team of Guoxin Securities strategy
So, what will be the main line throughout the second half of the year?
Source of this article: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of China Securities News u00b7 China Securities Net_ NBJ9931