Fu Peng: people think that the economic situation is not good and that the US stock market should fall. This is biased

 Fu Peng: people think that the economic situation is not good and that the US stock market should fall. This is biased

Fu Peng (chief economist of Northeast Securities and columnist of Netease Research Bureau)

Fu Peng

The a share market is still structural

I think the A-share market is still a structural one, which has been the performance since 2016. In principle, science and technology and consumption are not affected by the economic cycle, and they are the top priority of allocation. However, the big problem is that it is still driven by valuation. After the market has been running for a period of time, the valuation will be too high; if the valuation is too high, it will involve the problem of security allocation margin. This is the style switch we see. The configuration preference will switch from high valuation technology and consumption to weight. But the weight of the big vote does not have a particularly large increase, which limits the index space. Therefore, the index is normal at more than 3000 points, and is low below 3000 points.

In fact, the U.S. stock market is also a structural problem and has made due response to the epidemic

The U.S. stock market has not failed to respond to the epidemic. The situation of the U.S. stock market is somewhat similar to that of a share market, but in reverse. In other words, the weight in the middle of its structure is dominated by technology companies and Internet companies. In fact, the impact of the epidemic on technology and Internet companies is very small. However, the differentiation from the U.S. economy to the stock market actually started in 2008 Its been evolving since then. Many people think that the economy of the United States is equal to the stock market of the United States, which is wrong. Most of the stocks in the U.S. stock market represent the traditional industries of the economy. In fact, they are no longer good, but they account for a small proportion of the index. Even if only 20% of tech companies are rising, they have 80% or 90% weight, which is the most critical issue.

Therefore, it is biased to think that the economic situation is not good and US stocks should fall. This reflects a simple retail thinking. In fact, the US stock market does not look at the index. The weighted factors in the US index are very important. We should look at the structural differentiation in the index, that is, what the performance of most stocks is.

Netease Research Bureau is a financial and professional think tank created by Netease News. It integrates the original multimedia matrix of NetEase Finance and economics, relies on the wisdom of hundreds of top economists at home and abroad, conducts rational and objective analysis and interpretation on hot topics of economics, and creates a leading financial think tank with attitude. Welcome to contribute (contribution email: [email protected] uff09u3002

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