A-share exploded! Transaction breaking trillion netizens: panic when rising

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 A-share exploded! Transaction breaking trillion netizens: panic when rising


Today, a shares rose again, leading the bull market. The Shanghai Stock Index soared by 2.13%, with a sharp index of 3100 points. Securities companies staged a wave of trading limits, and H shares of Everbright Securities once soared more than 27% in the session.

After the rise of medicine and science and technology, is it finally the turn of financial and real estate? Gem is not fragrant, gem index today is only slightly up 0.2%, the intraday is once down nearly 1%.

In the afternoon, the Hang Seng Index stood at 25000 points, up 2.35%.

The stock market is too hot

Four months later, the turnover exceeded trillion yuan

The stock market is too hot. After four months, the turnover of a shares has exceeded trillion yuan.

Today, the A-share market continued to be short, with the Shanghai Composite Index up more than 2% and 2.13% to 3090.57 points, the sword index to 3100 points, the Shenzhen composite index up 1.29% and the gem index up 0.2%.

The transaction volume of the two cities reached 1079.7 billion yuan, exceeding one trillion yuan. The last time the transaction volume of the two cities exceeded trillion yuan on March 10 this year.

Bull market pioneer securities companies completely detonated

A shares rise and limit, H shares soar 27%

The market is booming, and securities companies are the first. As the vanguard of the bull market, securities companies have been experiencing frequent riots recently. Today, they have exploded completely. The plate has risen by more than 7%, and the turnover reached 98.2 billion yuan, close to 100 billion yuan.

A-share securities companies staged a wave of trading limits, with 12 securities companies including Zhongtai securities, China Merchants Securities, Everbright Securities, Zhejiang securities, Pacific, Shanxi securities, and China Securities construction investment limited.

H shares without price limit are more fierce. 15: About 20 points, H-share Everbright Securities soared by more than 27%, China CITIC construction investment, Haitong Securities, China Galaxy, Zhongzhou securities and China Merchants Securities rose more than 10%, while leading securities companies CITIC Securities and CICC rose about 9%.

Insurance and banks in the big financial sector are also ready to move. Qingnong commercial bank trading limit, Bank of Xian rose nearly 8%, Xishui shares and PICC rose more than 9%.

The real estate sector is also eager to try. Taihe Group, world bank, Gree real estate, Jinke shares, Greenland holdings and other trading limits, Goldfield group rose about 8%.

Today, the capital went northward to sweep up 17 billion yuan

According to wind data, todays northbound funds bought 17.115 billion yuan unilaterally, a new high since June 19, including 11.161 billion yuan of Shanghai Stock connect and 5.955 billion yuan of Shenzhen Stock connect.

In recent three months, the market rebounded, and Beishang capital bought 148.9 billion yuan.

Bull market is coming

Skywalker: do you think I still have a chance

Wechat groups are all exposed to the trading limit, and some people directly call it a little afraid of rising:

However, the mentality of the people who step into the air will explode.

Pharmaceutical, science and technology, business sector callback

However, heavy positions in technology stocks, pharmaceutical stocks can be hard.

We should know that gem, science and technology stocks, pharmaceutical stocks and consumer stocks were the market leaders in the first half of the year, and have already walked out of the structural bull market. But the bank, insurance, real estate plate falls endlessly.

Therefore, some people think that the current market is that growth is switching to value. At that time, those who ridiculed buying banks, securities companies, insurance and real estate were ridiculed.

Securities companies: financial dance

There may be a style shift in the market

Founder Securities strategy said that the judgment of big finance dancing has been preliminarily verified. On June 28, we released the report big finance has the last dance before the index reaches its peak. It summarizes the background and deduction of the four major financial sectors rise in the past 10 years. It clearly points out that the macro background of financial rise is either the expectation of economic recovery or the turning point of liquidity. At present, in the process of constant confirmation of economic recovery, the big financial sector will be the driving force for the rise of the index This judgment has been perfectly verified by the market.

There are three main logic points in this round of big finance. First, the domestic and foreign economic recovery has been continuously confirmed. The domestic PMI continues to be above the boom and bust line, and the month on month improvement is obvious, and the demand is also accelerating the recovery. The worst time for the overseas economy has passed. Yesterdays US small non farm employment data recorded the largest growth in history, and Citigroups US economic accident index continued to climb to the highest point. Second, finance is in the position of the most undervalued value in the past 10 years. The valuation of large financial sector is only 7.9 times, and that of bank Pb is only 0.7 times. Judging from the situation before the four big financial rises in the past 10 years, financial valuation percentiles have absolute or relative advantages. Third, the catalyst in the financial field has been accumulating in recent years. From the discussion of issuing securities license and mixed operation by commercial banks, and then allowing local government special debt to reasonably support small and medium-sized banks to supplement capital, it is particularly important to make the financial industry bigger and stronger under the background of the changeable external environment and financial support for the real economy.

After the financial dance, the core of the market deduction is the economic cycle, and the preliminary judgment will continue the structural market. Judging from the deduction of the market after the past four major financial rises, there are more obvious structural market in 2013 and 2019, which is essentially a sign of stabilization in the short economic cycle. Judging from the current situation, it is likely that the economy will continue to recover. Therefore, the structural market since the second half of 2019 will continue.

In the third quarter, the market structural opportunities were brilliant, focusing on the undervalued allocation opportunities of Finance and technology. From the perspective of the pattern of the stock market in the first half of the year, the characteristics of the structural market are very obvious. In the second half of the year, it is difficult for the market to deduce the overall bull market under the strong policy stimulus, and the risk of sharp downward movement is also very limited. Focus on four types of opportunities: first, allocation opportunities of large financial sectors, such as securities companies and banks; second, early cycle automobiles and household appliances; third, structural adjustment fields such as new infrastructure, such as communications; fourth, some science and technology fields with obvious industrial trends, such as electronics and new energy vehicles.

Looking forward to July, Britain and the United States are expected to make a big fuss on the Hong Kong issue in terms of geopolitical conflicts. At the same time, the containment of China in science and technology industry will not stop. In terms of economic fundamentals, the global and Chinese economies will gradually recover. The domestic loose policy continues, the resumption of work and production is on the right track, and relevant industries are expected to recover.

Changjiang Securities strategy said, the style of the second half of the year? u2014u2014The key word of style deduction in the second half of the year is return to equilibrium after ultimate stretching. 1) Optimistic about the continued advantages of small and medium-sized market compared with the large market - equity financing cycle continues to rise, which is conducive to the continuous improvement of the fundamentals of small and medium-sized enterprises. 2) The optimistic undervalue will converge to the overvalue around the end of the third quarter - liquidity adequacy drives the undervalued style to make up for the rise. After the valuation is differentiated to a higher level, the relative performance fluctuation will limit the elasticity of overvalued stocks (that is, the valuation difference may be flattened, but it is difficult to further expand), and sufficient liquidity will be conducive to the underpricing to balance the risk return ratio.

Medium term view: maintain the strategy to see more. The fundamentals and policy implementation still need time to test, and the short-term rebound momentum is general. Under the framework of residual liquidity, the medium-term maintenance strategy is long-term.

Industry configuration: domestic demand is the main task, focusing on media in the short term and big finance in the medium term. Structurally, domestic demand is still the main line. Add new and old infrastructure in high-quality structure: electric vehicles, construction machinery, real estate, short-term attention to the media. In the context of continuous liquidity, we should focus on the allocation opportunities of large financial sectors in the medium term.

Public offering: neutral and optimistic in the second half of the year

Continue to be optimistic about science and technology consumption

The investment layout in the second half of the year is under intense development. How to interpret in the second half of the year? Where are the investment opportunities? China fund daily interviewed Shi Bo, deputy general manager and chief investment officer (equity) of China Southern Fund, Wang Jun, research director of Boshi fund research department, Li Wei, director of Strategic Investment Department of GF fund, and Liu Fangxu, director of public offering investment team of Equity Investment Department of Societe Generale fund, to uncover the investment code for the second half of the year.

These investors believe that the long-term attractiveness of the equity market is improving, and there are more structural opportunities for a shares in the second half of the year. These bigwigs especially mentioned that the current extreme structural market structure may be eased, while the technology, consumption and other sub sectors are optimistic.

Shi Bo: in the first half of the year, there were two points that exceeded the market expectations: the first was the volatility from overseas markets, including the overseas epidemic situation, the release of water by the Federal Reserve, social unrest in the United States, economic data fluctuations, Sino US disputes, and other events that happened once in a decade or even a century, which made market participants often feel at a loss. The second point is that the overall performance of a shares in the world is relatively good, but the problem of structural differentiation is more prominent.

Li Wei: We hold a neutral and optimistic view on the medium-term performance of the A-share market, and are more optimistic in the long-term. The spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia worldwide has a certain impact on the global economy and financial markets. In the future, we still need to pay close attention to the changes of global epidemic situation and the research and development progress of vaccines and special drugs. In the long run, there are still some long-term factors favorable to the A-share market, such as the continuous promotion of transformation and reform, the low proportion of residents equity assets allocation, and the great care of the capital market by policies. Under the background of loose global liquidity, the medium and long-term allocation value of equity assets appears. Although some industries have a large increase and high valuation, many industries are still at the bottom and the valuation is reasonably low.

Wang Jun: the current structure of A-share is a bit top heavy: the valuation of growth stocks is at a historical high, while the traditional industries are in a particularly low position. In the next 3-6 months, this situation will be eased, and there should be some convergence of valuation differences. The overall market for the second half of the year is relatively cautious and optimistic. Although there may be repeated outbreaks, the trend of global economic recovery remains unchanged. Under such a background, monetary policy is difficult to be further relaxed. The long-term positive factors of A-share market are clear: first, the economy can achieve higher quality growth; second, good listed companies have poured into the market, and regulators are also encouraging listed companies to repay shareholders. Third, A-share is really ushered in long-term investors. Liu Fangxu: the worst time for the global economy to be hit by the new epidemic should be over. The resumption of work and production in major economies is advancing in an orderly manner. At the same time, countries have introduced the strongest fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in history. The interest rate center is expected to continue to move down, and the assets determined by long-term cash flow are being re priced. At present, there is a more extreme clustering and differentiation in the market. The valuation of high-quality companies on the high-quality track has been pulled again and again, but few people pay attention to the industries and individual stocks with defects or great impact. We are still optimistic about the investment opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of the year, but the difficulty of stock selection is becoming more and more difficult. We will continue to adhere to the high-quality white horse, and at the same time, we will focus on the opportunity of turning black horse into white horse in industrial change. Source: China Fund News Editor in charge: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Wang Jun: the current structure of A-share is a bit top heavy: the valuation of growth stocks is at a historical high, while the traditional industries are in a particularly low position. In the next 3-6 months, this situation will be eased, and there should be some convergence of valuation differences. The overall market for the second half of the year is relatively cautious and optimistic. Although there may be repeated outbreaks, the trend of global economic recovery remains unchanged. Under such a background, monetary policy is difficult to be further relaxed. The long-term positive factors of A-share market are clear: first, the economy can achieve higher quality growth; second, good listed companies have poured into the market, and regulators are also encouraging listed companies to repay shareholders. Third, A-share is really ushered in long-term investors.

Liu Fangxu: the worst time for the global economy to be hit by the new epidemic should be over. The resumption of work and production in major economies is advancing in an orderly manner. At the same time, countries have introduced the strongest fiscal and monetary stimulus packages in history. The interest rate center is expected to continue to move down, and the assets determined by long-term cash flow are being re priced. At present, there is a more extreme clustering and differentiation in the market. The valuation of high-quality companies on the high-quality track has been pulled again and again, but few people pay attention to the industries and individual stocks with defects or great impact. We are still optimistic about the investment opportunities in the A-share market in the second half of the year, but the difficulty of stock selection is becoming more and more difficult. We will continue to adhere to the high-quality white horse, and at the same time, we will focus on the opportunity of turning black horse into white horse in industrial change.