Double points new policy: can the new energy vehicle market bottom and rebound?

category:Finance
 Double points new policy: can the new energy vehicle market bottom and rebound?


The Ministry of industry and information technology said that during the implementation of the points method, there were problems such as the urgent need to update the technical standards, the insufficient investment in fuel vehicle energy saving technology by enterprises, and the imbalance between supply and demand in the points trading market. The Ministry of industry and Information Technology launched the revision of the integral method in early 2019.

Specifically, the revised double integral new policy adds measures to guide the energy saving of traditional passenger vehicles, and improves the flexibility measures of new energy vehicle integral.

The new deal has improved the guidance measures for fuel consumption of traditional energy passenger vehicles and the flexibility measures for integration of new energy vehicles. In the second half of this year and next year, new energy vehicles will have sustainable and high growth opportunities. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the all China Federation of riders, said.

Energy saving and new energy vehicles

The new policy of double points has made several amendments to the current measures.

In the new policy of double points, it is clearly proposed that the proportion of new energy vehicle points in 2021, 2022 and 2023 shall be 14%, 16% and 18% respectively. The Ministry of industry and information technology said that the proportion of points was calculated on the basis of overall consideration of the basic balance of positive and negative points in the industry, meeting the fuel consumption standards in the fifth stage and achieving the established industrial development goals. According to the requirements of this proportion, the planning goal of average fuel consumption of new passenger cars will reach 4.0l/100km by 2025, and the proportion of production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 20% of the total amount of vehicles can be basically guaranteed.

At the same time, the double integral new deal revised the calculation method of new energy passenger vehicle model integral, which requires more stringent.

Previously, the integration of BEV was mainly based on the endurance mileage, while the new deal comprehensively considered the vehicle endurance level, vehicle power consumption level, battery energy density and other factors. Bevs single car points have also been slashed by more than 50%.

It is worth noting that the double integral new deal encourages more investment in research and development in the field of traditional fuel energy, so as to achieve the coordinated development of energy saving and new energy vehicles. The new policy of double points points out that enterprises that produce / supply low fuel consumption models will be given preferential accounting when calculating the points of new energy vehicles.

According to this policy, it will promote the development of hybrid vehicles with high price but more energy saving. Japans leading companies in hybrid technology, such as Toyota and Nissan, will benefit from this.

In 2019, the double points policy requires for the first time that all passenger vehicle enterprises implement the new energy vehicle integral proportion of 10%. Therefore, for the first time, the new energy vehicle integral has negative value. According to the double points in 2019 previously announced by the Ministry of industry and information technology, in 2019, the positive and negative points of domestic passenger vehicle manufacturers for new energy vehicles were 3830900 and 8069000 respectively. Among them, the top ten enterprises with positive points of new energy vehicles are all independent brands, while the top ten enterprises with negative points of new energy vehicles are almost all large-scale joint ventures.

Of course, the reason why some car companies are not enthusiastic about new energy vehicles is that in the past two years, there has been a situation of oversupply of points and low price of points. However, with the double points new deal to further improve the new energy vehicle assessment ratio, and the single car point reduction, the oversupply of the point market will significantly improve, the price of the point transaction is likely to rise, and the transaction price will fully reflect the market value.

This is undoubtedly good for BYD, BAIC new energy and other auto companies with high sales of new energy vehicles, which is conducive to easing the current financial pressure caused by the decline of new energy subsidies.

New energy vehicle bottomed out and rebounded?

More stringent double points policy will undoubtedly force car companies to increase the R & D and production of new energy vehicles. However, the current trend of Chinas new energy vehicle market is not optimistic.

Thanks to the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation and the introduction of consumption promotion policies by local governments, the passenger vehicle market recovered significantly in April and may, but the new energy vehicle market is still at a low ebb.

In the first five months of this year, the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was only 289000, down 38.7% year on year, according to the China Automobile Industry Association. Among them, the decline of pure electric passenger vehicles reached 41.3%, and the cumulative sales volume was only 195000.

Cui Dongshu believes that the introduction of the new policy of double points will stimulate automobile enterprises enthusiasm for the production of new energy vehicles in the second half of the year. As more competitive products are launched to the market, and consumers recognition of new energy vehicles increases, the market is expected to resume high growth.

However, the production of more new energy vehicles by car companies does not mean that more new energy vehicles can be sold. The key is to boost market demand.

Ye Shengji, chief engineer and Deputy Secretary General of China Association of automobile industry, believes that in the new double integral policy, the integral proportion is calculated on the basis of production volume, and there may be some hidden dangers or improvement space. It does not exclude that some enterprises blindly produce new energy vehicles without market demand in order to meet the requirements of integral proportion, resulting in waste of social costs.

(author: Zuo Maoxuan editor: Bao Fangming)

Four months after the outbreak, Ma Huateng is still the richest man in China. Huang Zhengs wealth is growing fastest. The national development and Reform Commission has allocated 3.5 billion yuan from the central budget to support Hainan free trade ports national network information office in interviewing 10 online live broadcast platforms such as Huya and douyu. Source: editor in charge of economic report in the 21st century: Wang Xiaowu_ NF