On Monday (June 22), a shares rose and fell back. The Shanghai Stock Index turned green, and the growth enterprise market index rose nearly 2% to a new high since January 2016.
Specifically, the Shanghai index fell 0.08% to 2965.27, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.29% to 11702.44, the growth enterprise market index rose 1.01% to 2342.88, recording seven consecutive gains, and Wande all a rose 0.21%. The turnover of the two markets exceeded 800 billion yuan again three months later.
On the same day, Moutai, Guizhou Province, slightly fell 0.06%, with a total market value of 1807.7 billion yuan, once again surpassing the industrial and Commercial Bank of Chinas market value of A-share. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China closed down 0.77% on the same day, with a total market value of 1776.9 billion yuan. Since April, the market value of Moutai in Guizhou has surpassed that of ICBC for many times and topped the market value list of a shares.
In terms of capital, the institutions on that day bought heavily, with a net inflow of 9.65 billion yuan.
The first list of gem registration system is published
On Monday, the stock market was in full swing, Everbright Securities was up and down, and CSCEC set a new record in the trading, with a total market value of 300 billion yuan.
On the same day, the first acceptance list of gem registration system was announced.
According to wind data, the first acceptance list of gem registration system involves 32 enterprises, with a total financing scale of RMB 3117752 million. Among them, Yihaijiali has the highest financing scale, with a financing scale of 13.87 billion yuan, and reader culture has the lowest financing scale, with a financing scale of 250 million yuan.
In terms of sponsors, the first batch of list involves 17 sponsors. Among them, CSCI has 5 monopolies, Dongguan securities, Changjiang Securities have 4 respectively, and Guojin securities have 3.
Xinda Securities said that the gem registration system was officially put into effect, and the big market of securities companies was on the rise. The gem registration system has entered the practical stage, the capital market reform has been accelerated + the liquidity is abundant, and the securities sector continues to be optimistic.
According to the analysis of Aijian Securities Research Report, leading securities companies have stronger investment and research capacity, more obvious channel advantages, stronger net capital strength, favorable policies and more potential. The industry as a whole is strong, and we can actively focus on leading securities companies. The short-term market trend is affected by the development of the epidemic situation, but in the medium and long term, with the continuous promotion of capital market reform and the implementation of favorable policies, the fundamentals of securities companies are expected to continue to improve.
According to wind data statistics, since June, the accumulated net buying scale of northbound funds has reached 51.516 billion yuan, while the net buying scale in the year is 116.988 billion yuan.
LPR hold still
At the same time, the market interest rate remained stable.
On Monday and June, LPR quotation was released: 1-year varieties were reported at 3.85%, the last time at 3.85%, the last time at 4.65%, and the last time at 4.65%.
The data shows that since the reform of LPR, one-year LPR has been reduced by 40 BP for four times, and more than five-year varieties have been reduced by 20 BP for three times.
In April, the decline of LPR quotation was the largest since the LPR reform, with 20bp to 3.85% in one-year period and 10bp to 4.65% in more than five-year period.
CICC believes that on June 15, the central bank will continue to reduce the volume of MLF and keep the interest rate unchanged for the second consecutive month. The central bank invested 200 billion yuan of MLF, which was lower than the maturity of 740 billion yuan this month, while the interest rate remained at 2.95%.
According to wind statistics, since 2018, the central bank has made seven adjustments to the open market reverse repo rate, including two interest rate hikes in 2018, two interest rate cuts in 2019 and three interest rate cuts since 2020.
In addition, since 2018, the central bank has made four adjustments to the one-year MLF interest rate, including one increase in 2018, one decrease in 2019 and two decreases in 2020.
How does the market go with the long and small holidays approaching
At the key time point of the year, the market trend has attracted attention due to the small and Long Dragon Boat Festival holiday.
For the future market, Haitong Securities said that the overall equilibrium state and structural group of a shares will continue, and it needs to pay close attention to the evolution of external risks in the future. Haitong Securities also predicted that if the market retreats in a short term, the downward space will be limited, and the center will rise in the second half of the year. As corporate profits are expected to turn into double-digit positive growth, the focus is on the market structure. In the future, as the fundamentals improve, the market structure will focus on growth.
In terms of sectors, the concepts of seed industry, semiconductor and photolithography are the main objects of net inflow, while the concepts of daily chemical industry, warehousing logistics and tourism are relatively large.
Among them, semiconductor sector led the two markets, semiconductor index rose by more than 4% in volume. Four factors drove the sector up:
1. One is that SMIC quickly applied through the science and technology innovation board and will be listed soon.
2. On Monday, the upstream equipment and materials of semiconductors performed better, because new projects on SMIC and Changjiang storage brought new growth points in these directions.
3. The approval of the restart of science and technology ETF fund is also a stimulus point.
According to Li Xuanqun of Ping An Securities, as the Dragon Boat Festival is approaching, large funds tend to be cautious, and there is a high probability that funds will continue to flow back to technology stocks, focusing on the band opportunities of technology stocks.
Societe Generale Securities also said that the demand for mobile phones and consumer electronics industry will bottom at the end of Q2 and Q3 will start to pick up, but the market will be affected by external factors for a short time or repeatedly. Under the demand of accelerated brand stock, the chip industrys performance in the first quarter in the future will probably exceed expectations, focusing on the change of brand share in the chip supply chain; it will continue to be optimistic about the performance of the second half of the consumer electronics leader, and the recent fluctuations will appear long-term buying points.
Ping An Securities Research Institute said that liquidity and regulatory cycle are important factors to determine whether the securities companies can obtain excess returns. Under the protection of liquidity support and policy, we maintain a long-term optimistic outlook on the industry. Leading securities companies have stronger research pricing and direct investment capabilities, and have more obvious advantages than small and medium-sized securities companies, which will benefit from the improvement of investment banking business concentration.
With the arrival of the Dragon Boat Festival, the fund will take the opportunity to adjust positions and exchange shares. After the end of the early stage of the local market economy and the 618 e-commerce Festival, the fund will choose a new direction of speculation.
However, for the future market, Ping An Securities said that the pressure above the 3000 point is large, and the volume of trading still needs to continue to be effectively enlarged. However, on the whole, market opportunities are beginning to increase, and the plate rotation is relatively obvious. In terms of operation, we can continue to pay attention to leading companies in various industries, and actively seek for low-cost layout.
Specifically, the current P / E ratio of information technology sector has exceeded 100 times. Judging from the valuation trend in the past five years, it has been at a historical high, with an increase of about 200% compared with the historical low at the beginning of 2019.
The current price earnings ratio of the daily consumption sector is about 35 times. Although there is still some space from the historical high, it is also above the median. As the daily consumption is mostly rigid demand and less elastic, the growth rate of the plates performance is basically stable.
Trend Outlook for the second half of the year
Wei Wei, Zhang Yajie and Hao Sijing, analysts of Ping An Securities, released a research report saying that a shares still have strong attraction from a global perspective.
According to the report, equity market ushers in the era of leading and emerging premium driven by liquidity.
In terms of market environment outlook, the report holds that: 1) profits are slowly restored and emerging industries are booming; 2) market liquidity is abundant & valuation is not high; 3) tail risk still has bottom support.
In terms of equity asset allocation, the report suggests that: 1) the core is profit and domestic demand; 2) the traditional industry leaders have room for valuation restoration, and the medium and long-term allocation direction of consumption / medicine / technology industry remains unchanged.
Zhu bin, an analyst at Southwest Securities, said that although the peak of the second shock of the epidemic will not exceed the peak of the first outbreak, it will still profoundly restrict the recovery process of the global economy, which will make the global economy in a relatively weak state in the second half of 2020.
In terms of investment layout, report analysis:
Direction 1: Science and technology. On the one hand, the new domestic infrastructure construction will be accelerated, 5g upstream construction will be in full swing, and operators expenses will not be reduced. On the other hand, despite repeated outbreaks, the resumption of work and production will be gradually promoted, and the demand is expected to recover. Focus on 5g industry chain, data center, science and technology upstream infrastructure, new energy vehicle industry chain and other sectors.
Direction 2: the dilemma reverses the plate. A considerable number of industries have been greatly impacted by the epidemic, and the share price of the company has also declined substantially with the decline of performance. With the resumption of work, the performance of these industries will gradually pick up, especially the leading target, and the stock price is expected to return significantly. We are optimistic about leading enterprises in film and television media, cinemas, transportation, etc.
Liu Chenming, Li Rujuan, Xu Xiangzhen and Zhao Yang, analysts of Tianfeng securities, published a research report. Considering the rational investment choice and relatively stable investment style of incremental capital, the opportunity of valuation restoration of undervalued sectors may be more likely to exist in some segmentation leaders - namely, periodic core assets with u03b1 attribute but long-term suppressed valuation by industry attributes, which may be It is a relatively high cost-effective part in the second half of the year. Even if the u03b2 of the whole undervalued sector is not as good as expected, then these companies with u03b1 attribute will not lose at least in the long run when they buy from the undervalued sector. According to the report, no matter in the short term or in the long term, it is still recommended to maintain the over matching of consumption and technology leaders for core positions. In the second half of the year, if the emotional decline caused by repeated Sino US relations, repeated epidemics and fluctuations in US stocks is an opportunity for the re matching of consumption and technology core companies. Source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Bin_ NF4368
Liu Chenming, Li Rujuan, Xu Xiangzhen and Zhao Yang, analysts of Tianfeng securities, published a research report. Considering the rational investment choice and relatively stable investment style of incremental capital, the opportunity of valuation restoration of undervalued sectors may be more likely to exist in some segmentation leaders - namely, periodic core assets with u03b1 attribute but long-term suppressed valuation by industry attributes, which may be It is a relatively high cost-effective part in the second half of the year. Even if the u03b2 of the whole undervalued sector is not as good as expected, then these companies with u03b1 attribute will not lose at least in the long run when they buy from the undervalued sector.
According to the report, no matter in the short term or in the long term, it is still recommended to maintain the over matching of consumption and technology leaders for core positions. In the second half of the year, if the emotional decline caused by repeated Sino US relations, repeated epidemics and fluctuations in US stocks is an opportunity for the re matching of consumption and technology core companies.