So what happened to the securities industry? Analysts believe that the stock market of securities companies generally lags behind the volume of trading, and from the transaction in June, it is obviously larger than that in April and may. In addition, with the continuous promotion of capital market reform, there is also a driving force for the short-term outbreak of securities companies.
In fact, in a long time, after the sharp rise in 2015, the securities companies had the situation of overall reduction in 2016, and the report repair was not basically completed until 2018. Therefore, there will be a rise in the first half of 2019. In the first quarter of 2020, there is also a wave of market in securities companies, which is also caused by the expansion of asset scale of securities companies and the monetary environment. Judging from the current situation, the expansion is still continuing. Historically, in this case, the security of securities companies is sufficient, and their flexibility depends on the interest rate conditions and volume level.
In the last three trading days, the stock market value of securities companies has soared over 170 billion yuan.
There is a short-term incentive for securities companies to rise. On June 18, the 12th Lujiazui forum was held, and the stock market of securities companies was also started on that day. On the same day, Yi Huiman, chairman of the CSRC, said that the capital market should shoulder the mission of helping a higher level of opening up, the capital market should shoulder the mission of promoting innovation and transformation, and strive to create a good development ecology of China to ground. This may mean that the policy dividend of the securities industry is available. Yi Gang, governor of the peoples Bank of China, said that the central bank expanded aggregate supply through quantitative monetary policy tools, and guided market interest rates to continue to decline through market-oriented reform of interest rates. Analysts believe that under the support of more flexible and appropriate monetary policy, the liquidity of the capital market is expected to maintain relative abundance, which will facilitate the development of the securities industry. On June 18, Guo Shuqing, Secretary of the Party committee of the peoples Bank of China and chairman of the CIRC, said at the Lujiazui forum that the CIRC plans to launch six measures to support the development of the capital market in the near future. It is pointed out that with the support of the banking and insurance institutions, the capital market will play a more extensive and active role, and the securities industry, as the core intermediary of the capital market, will occupy a more important position.
In addition, after entering June, the market has been much more active. The trading volume level in June is also significantly higher than that in April and may. In June this year, the average daily trading volume of the whole market exceeded 700 billion, but few of the daily trading volume exceeded 700 billion yuan in April and may. From the past experience, securities companies are not the first active variety, only when other stocks are hot in the market, securities companies will act. But often fry the securities company, the market also arrived to see the differentiation time.
Two fundamental supports exist in the securities industry
There are always reasons for the rise of securities companies. At present, the first root of the stock trend of securities companies is the change of seven-year balance sheet.
From the end of 2014 to the beginning of 2015, there was a very fierce rise in securities companies. The root of this is not the interest rate cut, which is just an incentive, but the rapid expansion of the balance sheet. From 2013 to 2014, the total assets of CITIC Securities expanded by more than 200 billion yuan; the total assets of Haitong, Huatai, Guojun, Guangfa, etc. were all reversed within one year.
At that time, this sector was launched in early November. That is to say, after the disclosure of the third quarter report, the market basically had an estimate on the asset scale of securities companies throughout the year. From 2013 to 2015, the total assets of most securities companies almost tripled. In this case, it is inevitable to launch a wave of market. Of course, although the table expanded in 2015, the marginal volume of expansion has declined, and after a brief surge, the overall performance of securities companies throughout the year is not very good.
After the sharp rise in 2015, the securities companies experienced an overall contraction in 2016. In addition to CITIC Securities, the report restoration of other securities companies was not completed until 2018, so there will be a rise in the first wave of 2019. In the first quarter of 2020, there is also a wave of market in securities companies, which is also caused by the expansion of asset scale of securities companies and the monetary environment. Judging from the current situation, the expansion is still continuing.
Judging from the situation in the first quarter of this year, the balance sheet size of some securities companies has reached a historical level, and the total assets of CITIC Securities have even far exceeded 2015. Therefore, it should also be noted that the growth of total assets of many securities companies is still at a low level, which is not far from 2015. This may mean that resources are converging towards the leader. It also means that the opportunity of overall and explosive market is becoming smaller.
The second support for brokerage stocks is valuation. A veteran non bank researcher said that the security of securities companies stocks depends on the valuation, while the low valuation depends on the brightness. Everbright Securities rose on Monday. Before the rise, Everbrights lowest share price was only 10.87 yuan, while its net assets were 10.51 yuan. If the expected earnings in 2020 are added, it is estimated that the Pb of the company will be doubled. In this position, securities companies are usually safe and cheap. In fact, on the whole, no matter Pb or PE, the closing of securities companies on June 17 is not high.
Can securities companies catch up?
So, the question is, after the securities companies have experienced a big rise, can they still catch up?
Huatai Securities pointed out in the mid-term strategy report that the securities companies look at the increment in the short term and look at the mechanism in the long term. The upgrading of business model and the intensification of internal differentiation in the securities industry drive the plate to deduce a new normal of both u03b1 and u03b2. The stock investment of securities companies needs to capture the positive signals of policies and markets and grasp the u03b2 plate; at the same time, it needs to tap the securities companies with the leading mechanism and embrace the u03b1 income.
At present, the two-way strengthening of marketization and internationalization has become the main line of industry development logic. In the long run, securities companies with modern management mode, leading innovation ability and financial technology can achieve stable upgrading. In the short term, the breakthrough of securities companies performance lies in incremental innovation, while the light of asset transformation lies in improving the value rate, focusing on wealth management and high-level reform of investment banks; the heavy asset development needs to balance risk and income, focusing on securities lending business of counter cycle business innovation, multiple stable ficc business and derivatives of leveraging the balance sheet.
Last year, after the concept of aircraft carrier securities companies was put forward at the regulatory level, the pace of expansion of leading securities companies has been accelerated, but the rise of small and medium-sized securities companies is not so good. Therefore, the long-term expansion trend of leading securities companies should not change much. However, it is very likely that there will be a differentiation pattern for small and medium-sized securities companies in the future. Therefore, in the secondary market investment, there should be some trade-offs. When there are systematic opportunities in the market, due to the sharp increase of trading volume, the flexibility of small and medium-sized securities companies may be greater, but in the structural market, there may only be impulse market. In short, its about quantity. Only when there is a large market can securities companies have opportunities. So, when will there be quantity? When the risk appetite rises and the fund falls, it is usually the time when there is quantity. This needs to be tracked in a timely manner. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang Bin_ NF4368
Therefore, in the secondary market investment, there should be some trade-offs. When there are systematic opportunities in the market, due to the sharp increase of trading volume, the flexibility of small and medium-sized securities companies may be greater, but in the structural market, there may only be impulse market. In short, its about quantity. Only when there is a large market can securities companies have opportunities. So, when will there be quantity? When the risk appetite rises and the fund falls, it is usually the time when there is quantity. This needs to be tracked in a timely manner.