From the perspective of market liquidity, June coincides with the end of the quarter and the half year, which is affected by factors such as tax payment and bond issuance. Market liquidity margin is tightened, short-term fund interest rate is up, overnight Shibor rises to more than 2.1%, long-term ten-year Treasury bond yield is nearly 20 basis points higher than the end of the last month, and the overall up of fund price has a certain impact on LPR down. Wen bin added that in terms of the banks debt structure, the debt to the central bank is less than 4% of the banks total debt, while the proportion of deposits in the banks total debt is more than 60%, which means that the cost of deposits plays a decisive role in the banks debt cost. The high capital cost of banks restricts the pressure drop space of point difference, which results in relatively limited power to reduce LPR.
It is worth noting that the national regular meeting held on June 17 proposed that we should seize the key of reasonable profit giving, ensure the main body of the market and stabilize the basic economic market. We will further promote the financial system to make a reasonable profit of 1.5 trillion yuan to all kinds of enterprises throughout the year through a series of policies such as guiding the downward movement of loan and bond interest rates, issuing preferential interest rate loans, implementing loans for small and medium-sized micro enterprises to postpone repayment of principal and interest, supporting the issuance of unsecured credit loans for small and micro enterprises, and reducing bank charges.
The fact that the LPR price remains unchanged in June does not mean that the real loan interest rate will remain unchanged. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Dongfang Jincheng, told Securities Daily that, in fact, the bank may also reduce the actual interest rate in the new loan issuance according to credit policy, customer qualification and other reasons, that is, adjust the increase and decrease points on the basis of LPR. The suspension of one-year LPR interest rate cut for two consecutive months will not substantially change the downward trend of the enterprises real loan interest rate. This year, the process of the bank giving interest to the real economy will continue to advance.
According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, the statement of the national regular meeting on June 17 set the tone for the monetary and financial policy in the second half of this year. In an interview with Securities Daily, he predicted that LPR interest rate could be further lowered in the second half of the year, which would help drive down the mortgage rate. In combination with the increase of new market supply and the active price reduction and promotion of real estate enterprises, the housing transaction is expected to be further active.
Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of Securities Daily_ NF4425