The central pension adjustment is over 700 billion yuan: the net benefits of the four provinces are over 10 billion yuan

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 The central pension adjustment is over 700 billion yuan: the net benefits of the four provinces are over 10 billion yuan


After the implementation of the central pension adjustment system, the net payment of pension in each province reflects the development of regional economy, the degree of population aging, population mobility and growth.

Recently, the Ministry of Finance released the annual budget of the central reallocation fund in 2020. According to the data, this years central reallocation fund is expected to reach 739.823 billion yuan, an increase of 109.523 billion yuan over last years implementation, with an increase of 17.4%.

A big background here is that as the imbalance of endowment insurance funds between provinces is difficult to solve by provincial overall planning, the level of overall planning needs to be further improved. Since July 2018, the central adjustment system of endowment insurance funds has been implemented. Among them, some provinces become net contribution provinces when the amount of funds turned in is greater than the amount of appropriations received, and become net beneficiary provinces when the amount of appropriations received is greater than the amount turned in.

According to this years budget, seven provinces are net contributors, 21 provinces and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are net beneficiaries, and three are flat.

Data source: Ministry of Finance

Guangdong has the most contribution

The seven net contribution provinces are Guangdong, Beijing, Fujian, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Shandong, with a total net contribution of 176.7 billion yuan. These provinces are all located in the eastern coastal areas, including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong and Zhejiang, the four major economic provinces, Beijing and Shanghai, two strong first-line cities, as well as the southeast coastal province Fujian with developed private economy.

Among them, Guangdong, the largest economy province, has made a net contribution of 64.571 billion yuan, accounting for 36.5% of the total net contribution, becoming the province with the largest contribution from the central reallocation fund.

Guangdong has always been the province with the largest pension balance. In April last year, China pension actuarial report 2019-2050 released by the world social security research center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences said that after the introduction of the central pension adjustment system, Guangdongs pension balance in 2019 was 129.6 billion yuan, ranking first, far exceeding Sichuans 47.83 billion yuan ranking second and Beijings 47.72 billion yuan ranking third, with obvious advantages.

Professor Zhang Kaiyun, executive director of Guangdong Research Center for social security and social policy, analyzed the first financial reporter that the central governments reallocation fund was more than enough but less than enough. From the perspective of Guangdongs population structure, in a long period in the future, Guangdongs pension net contribution will still be relatively large.

Zhang Kaiyun analyzed that Guangdong, as a major economic province, with the improvement of labor laws and regulations, its pension collection and payment are relatively standardized, with a relatively high insurance participation rate and a relatively small number of missed payments. At the same time, Guangdong has a high overall employment capacity, a large number of migrant population, a large proportion of young people, a relatively low degree of aging, and a low dependency ratio of the elderly population. There are more payers and less recipients, so the balance will be more.

According to the data, in 2014, the permanent population of Guangdong was 107.24 million, while in the past five years, the population of Guangdong increased by 7.97 million, about equal to the population of a city of Hefei, which can be said to be growing rapidly. In addition to the high natural growth rate of population, the large inflow of foreign population, especially young people, is an important factor. For example, last year, the new inflow of permanent residents from outside the province reached 826200.

According to the report on higher education and economic development in Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Yangtze River Delta issued on June 18 by the research center of higher education big data of Guangdong, Hong Kong, Macao and the Guangzhou daily data and Digital Research Institute (GDI think tank), the inflow rate of Guangdong undergraduate graduates has continued to rise in recent years. In 2018, the proportion of the non provincial students employed in Guangdong accounted for 50.6%, and the industries with large employment volume are Electronic and electrical equipment manufacturing industry, information industry.

The first financial reporter also sorted out the proportion of people over 65 years old in 19 provinces (some of which are not published), and Guangdong ranked the second lowest. In addition, in 2019, the dependency ratio of the elderly population in Guangdong was 12.04%, while that of the whole country was 17.8%.

In addition, there is another factor. Compared with the northeast and Jiangsu provinces, in the past, the state-owned economy in provinces like Guangdong and Fujian accounted for a relatively low proportion, the number of people in the system was relatively small, and the urbanization rate was low. Ding Changfa, associate professor of Economics Department of Xiamen University, analyzed the first financial reporter. For example, there were few state-owned enterprises in Fujian, and the proportion of rural residents was very high. Although the urbanization rate is relatively high based on the permanent population, there are still a large proportion of people without employee pension.

The net benefits of the four provinces exceed 10 billion yuan

In addition to the seven net contribution provinces, Guizhou, Yunnan and Tibet are the same. They are also the provinces with high birth rate, low aging level and low proportion of pensioners.

In addition, 21 provinces and Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are the net beneficiary provinces, four of which have a net benefit of more than 10 billion yuan, namely Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Hubei and Jilin.

In general, the net beneficiary provinces are in a state of high aging, young population outflow, and pension income can not offset expenditure, especially in Northeast China. The data shows that Liaoning has the most net benefits, reaching 55.558 billion yuan. In addition, Heilongjiang has a net benefit of 48.556 billion yuan, and Jilin has a net benefit of 14.519 billion yuan.

According to the analysis of Yi Baozhong, a professor of Northeast Asia Research Institute of Jilin University, the main outflow of population in Northeast China in recent years is young and middle-aged, especially many people who work in the southeast coastal developed areas after graduation, leaving behind a relatively high degree of aging.

The data shows that under the condition of low birth rate and natural growth rate, the population of three provinces in Northeast China has a net outflow. In 2019, there will be a net outflow of 179900 from Heilongjiang, 110300 from Jilin and 41100 from Liaoning.

On the other hand, the urbanization of Northeast China is earlier. Yibaozhong said that in the past, the industrial sector in Northeast China was mainly state-owned enterprises, with a large base of pension, which is also very large in the whole country. In the process of marketization these years, the state-owned enterprises in Northeast China have been greatly impacted. Some of them have been restructured and some have gone bankrupt, which directly leads to the heavier and heavier pension burden.

In addition, the migrant type pension in Northeast China also aggravates the local economic pressure. Many people choose to go to the south for pension, or go to their children to get pension but not consume in Northeast China, which also has a great impact on the tertiary industry in Northeast China.

Hubei, a central province, has seen a 55% increase in net income this year compared with last year. The novel coronavirus pneumonia of Hubei Academy of Social Sciences Peng Zhimin analyzed the first financial reporter. The new crown pneumonia epidemic this year has a great impact on Hubeis economy. Many enterprises have encountered difficulties. The central government has also introduced a package of support for Hubeis development plan, and financial needs also need to reduce taxes and fees for enterprises, so the scale of pension transfer payment should be increased.

He analyzed that the situation in Hubei is different from that in Northeast China. This years epidemic impact is a special case. It is expected that with the gradual recovery of Hubeis economy, the scale of pension transfer will gradually decline after next year.

Cities with young people have a future

On the whole, the situation of pension income and expenditure in a region is not only closely related to the aging degree of the population, but also related to the flow of the population in the region. In some areas, such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, although the aging degree is also relatively high, due to the developed economy, there are a large number of foreign population inflow, so the pension income and expenditure situation is relatively good.

From this perspective, the more young people there are in a region, the more dynamic the economy tends to be. According to the research of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, in 2019, the direction of population flow in China further strengthened the general trend in 2018, and continued to show the characteristics of moving eastward and going south.

In 2019, the net inflow of population in the eastern provinces will exceed 1.5 million. According to the Qinling Huaihe River line, the net inflow of population in the southern provinces will reach 1.67 million. Moreover, the population migration scale of eastern and southern provinces is further increased compared with 2018.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u6056789,container:ssp_ 6056789, async:true }In order to attract talents, major central cities, including Nanjing, Hangzhou and Xian, are making full efforts to upgrade their talent policies, which not only relax the settlement policy, but also provide corresponding treatment in talent subsidies, rental subsidies, house purchase subsidies, etc. For example, in April this year, Hangzhou released the three-year action plan for Hangzhou to build the first city of entrepreneurship and innovation for college students (2020-2022). Through the cultivation of entrepreneurship and innovation talents project, Hangzhou plans to introduce more than 1 million college students to Hangzhou for entrepreneurship and innovation by 2022. Ding Changfa said that the competition between cities and regions is not to advance but to retreat. Population and talents are the important embodiment of urban competitiveness. Young talents are the main body of consumption, innovation, entrepreneurship and employment. Only cities with young people have a future. However, in order to retain young people, we must not only open the door to settle down, but also be livable and employable, and have corresponding industries and employment opportunities. Why is the pension still rising due to the large gap of relevant recommended pension? According to the social security report, the 14th five year plan is to realize the national overall planning of basic pension. The retirement age is first unified to 60 years old. Last year, 13 provinces issued a pension of 47.093 million yuan to 1526 people who did not meet the requirements. Source: the first financial writer: Lin Xiaozhao editor in charge: Liu Xiaowu_ NN4113

In order to attract talents, major central cities, including Nanjing, Hangzhou and Xian, are making full efforts to upgrade their talent policies, not only relaxing the settlement policy, but also providing corresponding treatment in talent subsidies, rental subsidies, house purchase subsidies, etc.

For example, in April this year, Hangzhou released the three-year action plan for Hangzhou to build the first city of entrepreneurship and innovation for college students (2020-2022). Through the cultivation of entrepreneurship and innovation talents project, Hangzhou plans to introduce more than 1 million college students to Hangzhou for entrepreneurship and innovation by 2022.

Ding Changfa said that the competition between cities and regions is not to advance but to retreat. Population and talents are the important embodiment of urban competitiveness. Young talents are the main body of consumption, innovation, entrepreneurship and employment. Only cities with young people have a future. However, in order to retain young people, we must not only open the door to settle down, but also be livable and employable, and have corresponding industries and employment opportunities.