Monetary policy easing slowed down LPR held still in June
The market had expected the LPR to hold still in June. Shell finance, the Beijing News, once reported that the pace of loose monetary policy has slowed down a little in the near future due to the phenomenon of idle arbitrage caused by the sharp decline of fund interest rate since April. As the wind vane of LPR, MLF (medium-term lending convenience) failed to cut interest rate when it was renewed on June 15. In the near future, the regulatory authorities also require banks to control the volume and price of structural deposits with relatively high yield and block the arbitrage channel.
Since the end of March and the beginning of April, the central bank has no monetary policy to reduce costs. Although the 14 day reverse repo, which was restarted on June 18, was reduced by 20 basis points at one time, Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, told shell financial reporter of Beijing news that this was a make-up drop following the pace of the previous 7-day reverse repo.
However, the unchanged LPR quotation in June does not mean that the actual loan interest rate will remain unchanged. In fact, the bank may also reduce the actual interest rate in the new loans according to the credit policy, customer qualification and other reasons, that is, adjust the increase and decrease points on the basis of LPR. In March this year, the interest rate of general loans (excluding personal housing loans) was 5.48%, 0.62 percentage points lower than that in July 2019 before the LPR reform, significantly higher than the 0.26 percentage point drop of one-year LPR in the same period. In this way, the suspension of one-year LPR interest rate cut for two consecutive months will not substantially change the downward trend of the enterprises real loan interest rate, and this years process of bank interest transfer to the real economy will continue to advance. Wang Qing, chief Macro Analyst of Orient Jincheng, said.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, told the shell financial reporter of Beijing news that the reduction of interest rate and standard within the year has brought relatively abundant capital for real estate enterprises. In recent two months, interest rate cut has slowed down, which has little impact on the financing of real estate enterprises.
In the first half of the year, two interest rate cut million loans were provided to save 90 yuan per month
This years LPR has cut interest rates twice in February and April, with a cumulative decline of 30 basis points in one-year LPR and 15 basis points in more than five-year LPR. On the personal level, the LPR rate cut can reduce the burden of the mortgage group.
Specifically, as most of the housing loans have a term of more than 5 years, with reference to the mortgage loans with more than 5-year LPR, 1 million loan principal and 30-year equivalent principal and interest, for every 5 basis points reduction of LPR, the monthly supply of the buyer can be reduced by about 30 yuan, and the total interest can be reduced by about 10800 yuan in 30 years; if the interest rate is reduced by 10 basis points, it is equivalent to 60 yuan reduction of the monthly supply, and the total savings are 21637 yuan. After two interest rate cuts this year, the monthly supply can save about 90 yuan.
According to the previous notice of the central bank, on March 1 this year, the conversion of pricing benchmark of stock individual housing loans officially started. Before August 31, residents are free to choose fixed interest rate or LPR according to their needs.
In the view of the insiders, in order to keep the balance sheet income matching, the power of increasing deposit interest rate to attract deposits is weakened, and the deposit interest rate is also falling, which is the embodiment of the role of market mechanism. Recently, some banks have taken the initiative to reduce large deposit interest rate, which also opens up space for LPR reduction, so the possibility of LPR reduction still exists in the future.
Interest rate reduction and standard reduction under the target of 1.5 trillion interest yield is expected to continue to push forward or accelerate the downward speed of LPR in the second half of the year
On June 17, the State Council further clarified the task target of the financial system makes a reasonable profit of 1.5 trillion yuan to all kinds of enterprises in the whole year on the request of encouraging banks to make a reasonable profit put forward in the government work report.
Industry insiders believe that the core of the yield of the financial system is to reduce the loan interest rate. However, some bankers said that in the first quarter, the net interest margin of the banking industry was only 2.1%, down 10 BP on a month-on-month basis. Against the background of narrow interest margin space, it is difficult for the banking industry to continue to yield interest to entities.
Wang Qing said that this year, while the financial system has increased the interest yield to the real economy, the main transmission path of monetary policy is to promote broad credit with broad currency, and the process of policy interest rate and standard reduction in the second half of the year is expected to continue to advance. Among them, MLF and open market operating interest rate still have about 40 basis points to be lowered in the year (30 basis points to be lowered in the first half of the year); with the subsequent comprehensive reduction, it may be faster to land, or it indicates that the monetary marginal tightening process since mid to late may will be significantly eased, and the downward speed of LPR price will be accelerated.
Yang Rong, chief banking analyst of CSC securities, believes that based on the current real economy financing situation and the increasing possibility of repeated epidemic, LPR still has the necessity of going down, while the structural deposit pressure drop and the development of innovative monetary policy tools will reduce the bank end debt cost and provide space for LPR to go down. It is expected that LPR will be reduced by 5bp in July. Wen bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said that monetary and financial policies will continue to increase support for the real economy. With CPI growth falling further, there is still room and necessity for reducing reserve and interest rates. We will appropriately reduce the benchmark interest rate of deposits in due time, guide the LPR downward, and realize the reduction of both direct and indirect financing costs. Cheng WeiMiao, editor of shell financial reporter of Beijing News, Chen Li, proofread by Wei Zhuo, source: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of Beijing News_ NF
Yang Rong, chief banking analyst of CSC securities, believes that based on the current real economy financing situation and the increasing possibility of repeated epidemic, LPR still has the necessity of going down, while the structural deposit pressure drop and the development of innovative monetary policy tools will reduce the bank end debt cost and provide space for LPR to go down. It is expected that LPR will be reduced by 5bp in July.