China Thailand macro: population migration market points in 2019: price trend from population flow

category:Finance
 China Thailand macro: population migration market points in 2019: price trend from population flow


Provincial level: continue to focus on Core Cities

The situation of Guangdong, another province with a net inflow of population, is similar. Most of the population flows to Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Foshan. The population migration scale of other cities is relatively small, and some cities are even in a net outflow.

The war to attract talents is getting fiercer and fiercer, and the new front line is making great efforts

From the perspective of the situation of cities at all levels, the first and second tier cities continue to have a net inflow of population, while the third, fourth and fifth tier cities continue to have an outflow of population.

Among the first tier cities, Beijing and Shanghai still maintain the total population control policy, while Shenzhen and Guangzhou continue to have a net inflow of population. In 2019, the net population of Beijing will continue to move out, but the scale of net migration will shrink from 220000 in 2018 to 63000. Although Shanghai maintains a net inflow of population, the scale is less than 10000. However, the population of Shenzhen and Guangzhou is in a large inflow. In 2019, Guangzhou has a net inflow of 250000 people. Although the natural population growth data of Shenzhen has not been published, the net inflow volume is estimated to be about 300000 according to the increase of permanent population.

The new first tier cities have joined the team of attracting talents, and the scale of population migration has increased significantly in the past two years. For example, in Hangzhou, Nanjing and other new first tier cities, in addition to their economic attraction, they are also increasing their efforts in talent attraction policies, not only relaxing the settlement policy, but also providing corresponding treatment in talent subsidies, rental subsidies, house purchase subsidies and other aspects. In 2017, the net population of new first tier cities moved in less than 900000, and in 2019, it has increased to 1.4 million.

In 2018, Anhui Province and Xian city were the most successful in attracting talents. In 2018, the talent policies of all parts of Anhui Province were greatly relaxed, which was also the peak of the net inflow of Anhui population. But this grand occasion only lasted for one year. In 2019, the net inflow of population in Anhui province slowed down significantly, and the scale of net inflow was even lower than the level before 2018. From the perspective of prefecture level cities, in 2018, almost all cities in Anhui province had a net inflow of population. By 2019, six cities had a net outflow of population. Xian is similar. Although there are still 130000 net inflows in 2019, it is also significantly slower than 320000 in 2018.

Chinas working age population has been negative growth for six consecutive years, which means that we have entered the era of population stock competition. Core cities have begun to join in attracting talents, and the pressure of population outflow from small and medium-sized cities will be greater in the future.

Small cities continue to flow out and real estate adjustment is under great pressure

We also made statistics on the price increase and the change of permanent population in China from 2018 to 2019, and found that there was a positive correlation between the two. With the exit of real estate stimulus, the impact of population on housing prices will become more and more obvious. Where the population continues to flow out, the pressure of housing price adjustment will be greater in the future. In fact, the adjustment pressure of the real estate market in small and medium-sized cities has been continuously reflected since 2018.

This can also explain why the recent rise in housing prices in Shenzhen will be more pressure. In 2019, the number of permanent residents in Shenzhen increased by 412000, including 400000 permanent residents and 11300 non permanent residents. If the natural population growth is deducted, the number of permanent non permanent residents may still decrease. This means that last year, the migrant workers in Shenzhen may be in a net outflow, and most of the people who moved in are qualified talents. The net inflow of this part of the population plays a more obvious role in promoting house prices. So looking forward, in the context of the continuous reduction of the working age population and the weakening of policy incentives in China, the adjustment pressure of the real estate market will become more and more intense, the policies of attracting talents will become more and more intense, and the structural characteristics of the real estate market will become more and more obvious. Author unit: Zhongtai securities source: First Financial Editor: Wang Xiaowu_ NF

This can also explain why the recent rise in housing prices in Shenzhen will be more pressure. In 2019, the number of permanent residents in Shenzhen increased by 412000, including 400000 permanent residents and 11300 non permanent residents. If the natural population growth is deducted, the number of permanent non permanent residents may still decrease. This means that last year, the migrant workers in Shenzhen may be in a net outflow, and most of the people who moved in are qualified talents. The net inflow of this part of the population plays a more obvious role in promoting house prices.

So looking forward, in the context of the continuous reduction of the working age population and the weakening of policy incentives in China, the adjustment pressure of the real estate market will become more and more intense, the policies of attracting talents will become more and more intense, and the structural characteristics of the real estate market will become more and more obvious.

Author: Zhongtai securities