Why is Indias confrontation not as tough as the torang incident? Experts explanation

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 Why is Indias confrontation not as tough as the torang incident? Experts explanation


Eisenhowers visit to India in 1959, photo source: Nehru Diplomatic Studies

At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union provided a lot of political, economic, military and diplomatic assistance to India, which made Nehru have the confidence to fight against China and carry out the so-called forward policy, which foreshadowed Indias tragic defeat in 1962. [2

During the Anti Japanese war against India, six an-12 transport planes from India participated in the reinforcement of Ladakh area. Chinas transport-8 is also a copy of the an-12. Photo source: CCSA

Rajiv Gandhis political predicament and the Sino Indian conflict in 1987

On November 25, 1986, Gorbachev, the leader of the Soviet Union, visited India. The two sides reaffirmed the alliance between India and the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union gave India a lot of economic and military assistance [3], which gave Rajiv Gandhi, who was trapped in domestic problems, a strong shot.

Rajiv Gandhi on the left, Gorbachev and his wife in the middle, Sonia Gandhi on the right. Photo source: Gorbachevs trip to India

In December 1986, shortly after Gorbachevs departure, India unilaterally announced that it would upgrade Chinas southern Tibet to Arunachal Pradesh, which quickly worsened the already relaxed Sino Indian Relations and became the background of the 1987 Sino Indian border conflict. And Rajiv Gandhis political purpose is also exposed through this incident. He wants to bypass domestic problems and build up the image of the winner in China and improve his political prestige by intensifying the border issue between China and India. But at this time, Gorbachev was obsessed with domestic problems and could not give India effective support. The conflict between China and India was diluted shortly after it happened.

Modis calculation: reaping profits

At the end of June 2017, modi visited the United States. Photo source: xinhua.com

However, to modis surprise, in the joint communique of the United States and India, on the one hand, there was no mention of the South China Sea issue that the United States and India have always been concerned about, on the other hand, they advocated the peaceful settlement of territorial disputes in accordance with international law. [4] For India, which is eager to seek American assistance and even intervene, this statement of peaceful settlement of territorial disputes in accordance with international law itself shows that the United States is actually a non intervention attitude.

Although trump didnt want to get involved in the dispute between China and India, he took advantage of the conflict. In the first half of 2017, trump praised Chinas efforts on North Koreas nuclear issue. But before and after the G20 summit in Hamburg from July 7 to July 8, when the dispute between China and India was most intense, trump suddenly criticized Chinas insufficient efforts on North Korea.

At this time, Trumps behavior logic is obvious. The United States is not involved in the dispute between China and India, but when one of the parties to the conflict seeks the help of the United States, it must give certain interests to the United States. Although Trumps intention to use the donglang incident to force China to continue to press North Korea is obvious, who can guarantee that trump will not press India for this reason?

This has happened more than once. During his visit to India in February 2020, trump reiterated his policy towards India and continued to demand that India open its domestic market. Before that, trump had already cancelled Indias most favored nation treatment and imposed tariffs on Indias steel and aluminum, which had aroused Indias anger. The most embarrassing thing for India is that trump said he was a friend of Pakistan in front of more than 100000 Indians during his visit. In fact, he is implying that he can mediate the dispute between India and Pakistan in Kashmir. But in modis view, trump is actually taking advantage of the fire to Force India to make concessions on trade issues.

The crisis behind the myth of modi

In addition to not daring to act rashly without external support, modis domestic political prospects are also very worrying. When modi came to power, people had high hopes for it, which was called modi myth. There are actually three trumps behind this myth.

The first one is a halo. Modi was born in the village of modi in wadnagar, Gujarat. His father was a small shopkeeper who ran a grocery store. In the local area, his family belongs to the Ganqi caste, which traditionally produces vegetable oil and is considered to be a low caste family. When he was a teenager, modi didnt do well in his studies. He soon dropped out of school and became a tea worker. After he joined the national volunteer service group (RSS), he gradually showed his strong political ability. Later, he was discovered and supported by the upper class, step by step to the present. It is because of modis grassroots nature that he has brought great political prestige to the bottom of the society.

Modi used to be a famous speaker when he was young

But now, the myth of modi supported by these three trumps has changed in this epidemic situation. As of June 20th, novel coronavirus pneumonia in India has exceeded 400 thousand, second only to the United States, Brazil and Russia. Moreover, Indias domestic economy has experienced a relatively large recession. Indias GDP growth rate in the first quarter was only 1.6%. In May, imports and exports fell 51.1%, 36.5% respectively, and the domestic unemployment rate exceeded 23%. HP has set the default rating of foreign currency issuers in India as the lowest investment grade: BBB -. The economic recession has led to a sharp decline in the popularity of modi [5], and the modi myth is no longer so striking.

Indian peoples support for modi in all aspects changes, photo source: Business- standard.com

At this time, if modi wants to redeem his political reputation by playing with nationalism, he can only aim at such weaker countries as Pakistan and Nepal. If he targets China with nationalism and increases his political score by intensifying the border dispute between China and India, India may suffer more than accidental casualties. At that time, not only Indias national interests will be damaged, but modis personal reputation, as well as his Indian party government, will be severely impacted.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u6056789,container:ssp_ 6056789, async:true });})(); Hu Xijin: if the Indian army escalates the conflict with China, it can only be an egg against a stone. Foreign Minister of Pakistan: Indias relations with regional countries are strained. The foreign ministry talks about the context of the conflict between China and India in the Kalewan River Valley. Tension intensifies the fighting between the Indian army and the Pakistani army in Kashmir. Source: observer. Net Author: Bai guangcan. Responsibility editor of the observer on India issue Series: Wang MuQing_ NB12712