Why is Indias confrontation not as tough as the torang incident? Experts explanation

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 Why is Indias confrontation not as tough as the torang incident? Experts explanation


If you know the history of Indias relations with China, you will find a rule: Indias national strength is always weaker than Chinas, and confronting China means paying huge costs. If India cant find a big country to bear the cost, it will never dare to challenge China.

Nehru supported by the United States and the Soviet Union

In March 1959, China pacified the Tibet rebellion, but India thought that its interests in Tibet had been violated, so the Sino Indian Relations went down sharply. In December, Eisenhower, then president of the United States, visited India. During this visit, Eisenhower changed his previous critical attitude towards the non aligned movement and assured Nehru that Indias non aligned policy would not prevent the United States and India from becoming close friends. In the next four years, the United States provided more than 4 billion US dollars of aid to India, which was unprecedented in the history of U.S. - India relations at that time. [1

Eisenhowers visit to India in 1959, photo source: Nehru Diplomatic Studies

At that time, the United States and the Soviet Union provided a lot of political, economic, military and diplomatic assistance to India, which made Nehru have the confidence to fight against China and carry out the so-called forward policy, which foreshadowed Indias tragic defeat in 1962. [2

During the Anti Japanese war against India, six an-12 transport planes from India participated in the reinforcement of Ladakh area. Chinas transport-8 is also a copy of the an-12. Photo source: CCSA

Rajiv Gandhis political predicament and the Sino Indian conflict in 1987

On October 31, 1984, Indira Gandhi was assassinated. Her son Rajiv Gandhi inherited her political heritage and became Prime Minister of India. In the next two years, Rajiv Gandhi did not become a tough politician like her mother, but had to deal with domestic problems. The economic reform is hard to push forward, the riots in Punjab and Assam continue, the power struggle between Arjun Singh and tripati in the party is increasingly fierce, and the opposition parties such as the Indian party are covetous, which makes Rajiv Gandhi headache.

Rajiv Gandhi on the left, Gorbachev and his wife in the middle, Sonia Gandhi on the right. Photo source: Gorbachevs trip to India

Although trump didnt want to get involved in the dispute between China and India, he took advantage of the conflict. In the first half of 2017, trump praised Chinas efforts on North Koreas nuclear issue. But before and after the G20 summit in Hamburg from July 7 to July 8, when the dispute between China and India was most intense, trump suddenly criticized Chinas insufficient efforts on North Korea.

At this time, Trumps behavior logic is obvious. The United States is not involved in the dispute between China and India, but when one of the parties to the conflict seeks the help of the United States, it must give certain interests to the United States. Although Trumps intention to use the donglang incident to force China to continue to press North Korea is obvious, who can guarantee that trump will not press India for this reason?

Trumps daily life: taking advantage of the fire

There are also conflicts of interest between the United States and India. At the meeting between modi and trump in June 2017, trump put down the words modi will have a good friend in the White House. The next sentence turned to the issue of trade disputes between the two countries, asking India to open its market and reduce the US trade deficit. Modi thought that he could profit from the conflict between China and the United States, but he found that the United States wanted to take advantage of the dispute between China and India. As a result, the donglang incident has lost its political significance to India. On the border issue between China and India, Indias attitude appeared obvious hesitation and softening. The softening of this attitude, along with Trumps consistent attitude towards India, continued until this confrontation in the valley of calawan.

The crisis behind the myth of modi

In addition to not daring to act rashly without external support, modis domestic political prospects are also very worrying. When modi came to power, people had high hopes for it, which was called modi myth. There are actually three trumps behind this myth.

The first one is a halo. Modi was born in the village of modi in wadnagar, Gujarat. His father was a small shopkeeper who ran a grocery store. In the local area, his family belongs to the Ganqi caste, which traditionally produces vegetable oil and is considered to be a low caste family. When he was a teenager, modi didnt do well in his studies. He soon dropped out of school and became a tea worker. After he joined the national volunteer service group (RSS), he gradually showed his strong political ability. Later, he was discovered and supported by the upper class, step by step to the present. It is because of modis grassroots nature that he has brought great political prestige to the bottom of the society.

Modi used to be a famous speaker when he was young

The third is nationalism. Modis BJP was founded as a radical Hindu nationalist group. They claim to represent the interests of Hindu groups, but in fact they use religion to cover up non religious social needs, expectations and conflicts. During the Gujarat riots in 2002, Modi, then the states chief minister, encouraged, sheltered and connived Hindus to attack Muslims, resulting in thousands of casualties. But he set up a tough nationalist image in India and won the ideological favor of 1 billion Hindus.

But now, the myth of modi supported by these three trumps has changed in this epidemic situation. As of June 20th, novel coronavirus pneumonia in India has exceeded 400 thousand, second only to the United States, Brazil and Russia. Moreover, Indias domestic economy has experienced a relatively large recession. Indias GDP growth rate in the first quarter was only 1.6%. In May, imports and exports fell 51.1%, 36.5% respectively, and the domestic unemployment rate exceeded 23%. HP has set the default rating of foreign currency issuers in India as the lowest investment grade: BBB -. The economic recession has led to a sharp decline in the popularity of modi [5], and the modi myth is no longer so striking.

At this time, if modi wants to redeem his political reputation by playing with nationalism, he can only aim at such weaker countries as Pakistan and Nepal. If he targets China with nationalism and increases his political score by intensifying the border dispute between China and India, India may suffer more than accidental casualties. At that time, not only Indias national interests will be damaged, but modis personal reputation, as well as his Indian party government, will be severely impacted.

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u6056789,container:ssp_ 6056789, async:true });})(); Hu Xijin: if the Indian army escalates the conflict with China, it can only be an egg against a stone. Foreign Minister of Pakistan: Indias relations with regional countries are strained. The foreign ministry talks about the context of the conflict between China and India in the Kalewan River Valley. Tension intensifies the fighting between the Indian army and the Pakistani army in Kashmir. Source: observer. Net Author: Bai guangcan. Responsibility editor of the observer on India issue Series: Wang MuQing_ NB12712