Teslas market value surpasses Toyotas, but its challenge is just beginning

category:Finance
 Teslas market value surpasses Toyotas, but its challenge is just beginning


Its not just the change in market value of the two companies. In the eyes of more people, this is a real hammer signal that traditional car companies are subverted by electric vehicle companies with technological attributes.

However, there are also different views.

No one thinks that Tesla is the same company as Toyota just because its market value has exceeded Toyota. Norihiro fujito, chief investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo, said in an interview.

According to public data, in 2019, Toyota sold more than 10 million vehicles worldwide, 12 times that of Tesla. In 2019, Toyotas net profit was 136.8 billion yuan, while Teslas profit data remained negative.

China market becomes the main booster

On June 10, an internal Tesla memo showed that musk said it was time to mass produce the electric truck semi. He said in an email that Tesla is increasing car production after a brief shutdown of the plant caused by the outbreak. Now its time to start mass production of semi electric trucks. The production of batteries and power assemblies will take place at giganevada, Nevada.

Although musk didnt give the time for semi mass production, from the market reaction, this concept model, which was launched at the end of 2017, has caught everyones appetite after a long delay in mass production.

The time went forward for another 11 days. In May 30th, two NASA astronauts flew to outer space with the DM-2 dragon spacecraft (CrewDragon) of musk SpaceX rocket and successfully docked with the international space station 19 hours after launch.

With his own power, musk has achieved achievements that have not been achieved by numerous countries. This kind of plot with personal heroism once again enveloped musk in high light.

In addition, in addition to being an electric vehicle manufacturer, Tesla has grown into a giant in energy storage and solar solutions. The company has increased the capacity of solar roofs to 4 megawatts a week. Its enough for 1000 families.

His boring company is planning to dig a high-speed transport tunnel connecting lanchokumanga and Ontario International Airport, which will take only 90 seconds to transport guests from the beginning to the end.

If these peripheral businesses only draw a delicious pie for investors, then the Chinese market across the Pacific accelerates the arrival of Teslas epic moment.

Thanks to the efficient production of Teslas Shanghai Super plant and the strong demand of the Chinese market, the sales volume of domestic model 3 reached 10160 in March this year. Since then, on May 1, Tesla China announced that the pre subsidy price of the model 3 standard extended range upgrade version had been reduced from RMB 323800 to RMB 2918000, a decrease of nearly 10%. With the state subsidy of RMB 20000 for electric vehicles, the model 3 standard extended range upgrade version had been reduced to RMB 271550.

Affected by the price, the sales volume of Teslas domestic model 3 broke 10000 again in May, reaching 11095 units, with a growth rate of 205% month on month, ranking first in the new energy market and leaving the second place far behind. Teslas overall model sales account for 20% of the market.

According to the statistics released by China Federation of riders, from January to April 2020, in the domestic private pure electric market, except Beijing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou and Liuzhou, which are respectively occupied by BYD, great wall, Hezhong and SAIC GM Wuling, Tesla is the brand with the highest purchase volume of private users in other major cities, including Shanghai, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Shenzhen, etc.

In addition to Teslas own reasons, Toyotas shrinking market value also directly helped the former succeed in surpassing itself. According to public figures, Toyotas market value has shrunk by 7% since the beginning of this year. During the peak period of the new crown epidemic, the market value has shrunk up to 20%.

Hard to replicate innovation

For now, musk has become as great a figure as jobs in the eyes of the public. The latter has used technology to change the habits of mobile phone use, while the former is using technology to change the way people move.

Tesla, once criticized by Wall Street, is being favored by more and more analysts, which means the company has long-term competitiveness in the eyes of capital.

Wedbush securities recently released a bullish Research Report on Tesla, raising the list price of Tesla to $1000, saying its share price may have more room to rise.

Although Teslas share price fluctuated slightly after breaking through $1000, it remained at a high of $1000 as of the time of publication. If you consider Tesla valuation and relative valuation It seems logical to downgrade it, but the stock is not traded on a valuation basis, it relies on investor sentiment and enthusiasm. Nancy tengler, chief investment officer of Laffer tengler investments, said in an interview with CNBC. If we continue to see a sell-off in the stock, it could be an opportunity for investors to take advantage over the next three to five years. She said.

Benedict Evans, a well-known investor, compared Tesla to apple in the automotive industry. When people at Nokia saw the first iPhone, they didnt think it was a great phone, he said. It had a cool looking feature, but it could only occupy a small part of the market. They shrug and say, it doesnt support 3G, it just has a powerful camera.

When people from traditional car companies saw Tesla for the first time, they also thought it was not a good car. It had some good features, but it would not dominate the market. They would say, look at this car. Its assembly is too rough. The doors are not installed well. Sometimes it leaks. He said.

It turns out that Nokia people are wrong, and they have paid a price.

When it comes to whether Tesla is subversive or not, Benedict Evans believes that whether its a new thing or a company that creates it, its often able to see the advantages of existing leaders and find some needs and areas that these companies cant meet and achieve; the existing companies dont care about the latecomers and think their new things can be easily learned by themselves. But its wrong. Apple brought intelligence and learned how to make a good mobile phone; Nokia would have made a good mobile phone, but it cant always learn to be intelligent. He said.

As for Tesla, the senior investor believes that he has found the weakness of intelligence that traditional car companies do not have, but has not fully grasped the old advantages of the former. How to produce cars on a large scale with the efficiency not inferior to that of traditional automobile giants, and how to maintain the efficiency of capital utilization. Tesla has been in the production hell for a long time, but solving the production hell is not a victory. This is the basic condition. Benedict Evans said.

Tesla needs continuous innovation to remain invincible. And these innovations must also have the following characteristics: it is difficult for parts suppliers to copy, so that vehicle companies can hardly get them; it must directly hit the pain points of users; it is difficult for vehicle companies and other electric vehicle companies to copy.

Based on the analysis of these characteristics, Tesla seems to be hard to copy in battery, electric control, human-computer interaction, automatic driving and other fields. For example, other companies can use the same cell supplier of Tesla, but they cant achieve the same package efficiency, let alone Teslas own million mile life battery is on the way.

For another example, many traditional car companies and new forces products have borrowed Teslas large central control screen, but the deep operation logic and interactive experience are different.

As for automatic driving, hardware such as camera, radar and processor can also be copied, but data accumulation at software level is not achieved overnight - as we all know, the importance of data accumulation of automatic driving is far greater than that of hardware itself.

In addition, it is still very rare for a vehicle to realize the change of mechanical execution level through remote software upgrade. Compared with such a car, the core competitiveness is the first innovation ability to come up with an OTA upgrade mode.

Toyota is not Nokia

Although Tesla has innovation areas that are hard to replicate, the situation facing Tesla is totally different from the war between apple and Nokia in that year. When tech enthusiasts shouted that Tesla would destroy the traditional giant like Toyota as apple overthrew Nokia, they forgot that Toyota was not too late to keep up with the times or unwilling to keep up with the times.

Take electrification as an example. In an interview with the interface news, Moshi Moshu, deputy president of Toyota Motor, said that the popularization of electric vehicles is only meaningful. And their attitude towards pure electric vehicles is not resistance, but secretly observation. They choose allin only when the market is receptive enough to such products.

On the other hand, the traditional giant represented by Toyota is carrying out an unprecedented joint and horizontal action, which is undoubtedly the resources that the new electric vehicle companies represented by Tesla do not have.

Toyota has established hydrogen fuel cell joint ventures with FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, BAIC and yihuatong to occupy the highland of future ultimate energy; has cooperated with Xiaoma Zhixing and didi to explore automatic driving and future travel modes; has deepened cooperation with Ningde times and BYD to develop pure electric vehicles. Not only that, Toyotas travel vision for the future will also be put into practice, and it will be built into a real future city and named woven city. Similar moves are also taking place among traditional car giants such as Daimler, Volkswagen, Ford and GM. So the question is, when Teslas superior technologies in intelligent, automatic driving and applied ecology are gradually popularized by traditional vehicle enterprises through mature supply system and quality control, can musk rely on energy supplier and Mars migration plan and other gimmicks to tell the future story in the capital market? Source: editor in charge of interface news: Yang Bin_ NF4368

Toyota has established hydrogen fuel cell joint ventures with FAW, Dongfeng, GAC, BAIC and yihuatong to occupy the highland of future ultimate energy; has cooperated with Xiaoma Zhixing and didi to explore automatic driving and future travel modes; has deepened cooperation with Ningde times and BYD to develop pure electric vehicles.

Not only that, Toyotas travel vision for the future will also be put into practice, and it will be built into a real future city and named woven city.

Similar moves are also taking place among traditional car giants such as Daimler, Volkswagen, Ford and GM.

So the question is, when Teslas superior technologies in intelligent, automatic driving and applied ecology are gradually popularized by traditional vehicle enterprises through mature supply system and quality control, can musk rely on energy supplier and Mars migration plan and other gimmicks to tell the future story in the capital market?