This weekend, due to the adjustment of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and the sharp rise of the index on Friday, the bull market suddenly improved a lot. In fact, in terms of the number of up and down makers and the rate of price limit plate explosion in the whole market recently, the effect of making money is not a special breakthrough. With the steel, coal began to tell the story of IDC and other high-tech, we can also think that the market has come to a relatively reluctant state. At this time, although the index may continue to be strong, as Guo Shuqing, chairman of the CBRC, said, the stock market cannot be far away from the real economy.
In fact, there are several recent changes that need to be taken seriously:
First, the outbreak at the beginning of this year prompted the central government and many local governments to introduce policies to promote the return of small and medium-sized enterprises to work, as well as personal tax preferences, which will expire on June 30 at least. It is less than 10 days before this time point. It remains to be seen whether some regions and some policies will be postponed. If not delayed, the early beneficiary will start to recover the normal expenditure of social security, provident fund, interest rate, rent, tax and so on, which will have a crowding out effect on the fund;
Second, the Federal Reserves balance sheet has shrunk for the first time since February, and there was some volatility in US stocks last week. If the scale continues to shrink, the phenomenon of external liquidity spillover will be weakened. With the expansion of FTSE Russell last Friday, the pace of international index expansion will slow down. Under the double pressure, it may mean that the continuous inflow of foreign capital will also weaken;
Third, from the speech of Yi Gang at Lujiazui financial forum, liquidity will remain reasonable and abundant in the second half of the year. However, in terms of specific data, there is a possibility of marginal decline in the total amount of social financing in the year, and there is a possibility that the scale is smaller than that of the same period last year.
Judging from the fund data in June, the ETF data in June, which can be called the stabilizer of the market, is not very good. In the 15 working days from June to now, the share of top 100 ETFs has shrunk almost all the way, with a decrease of 25.22 billion shares. At present, the Shanghai index is only a step away from 3000. Before that, he had crossed the border several times, but failed to return. So, in the current environment, how to break the Shanghai index?
June 30, change is coming
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, 31 provinces such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other provinces successively introduced various policies and measures to support enterprises to resume production and stabilize social production and employment by means of tax reduction, fee reduction and subsidy increase.
On February 3, Beijing municipal government issued 19 measures to support the normal production and operation of enterprises. Enterprises with temporary difficulties but promising development due to the impact of the epidemic will not be loaned, loaned or pressured. In terms of enterprise services, help all kinds of enterprises to stabilize production and operation.
Shanghai Municipal Bureau of human resources and social security issued four measures on February 3 to ease the burden on enterprises. Including the implementation of unemployment insurance return policy, postponement of adjustment of social insurance payment base, extension of social insurance payment period, implementation of training subsidy policy.
In February 6th, novel coronavirus infection in Guangdong was issued and several policies and measures to support the resumption and resumption of production were referred to as 20 rework and resumption of production. On February 7, Shenzhen issued 16 measures to support enterprises to resume production and work, including strengthening operation support for urban public transport, helping enterprises to stabilize cash flow, reducing property rent, helping enterprises to reduce financing costs, etc.
On January 30, the general office of Sichuan provincial government issued a document to clarify the enterprise support policies in terms of purchasing strength, overtime allowance, tax deduction and other ten aspects. Chongqing, Guizhou and other places have also introduced relevant measures to reduce taxes and fees and help return to work.
Many of these preferential policies will expire on June 30. For example, according to the document of Shenzhen, the benefit scope of the loan risk compensation fund pool of SMEs is expanded to small and micro entrepreneurs and individual industrial and commercial households, and the upper limit of risk loss compensation for new loans (extension is deemed as new) of commercial banks from February 1 to June 30, 2020 is increased from 50% to 80%. For example, in Qingdao, the application time for one-time employment subsidy policy is until June 30, 2020. In some cities, the work of guaranteed loans for small and medium-sized enterprises to stabilize their posts will be terminated on June 30; in some cities, if the housing accumulation fund loan cannot be repaid normally before June 30, the overdue treatment will not be made. But after that, there is no clear stipulation.
Analysts believe that from the current situation, as the epidemic situation in most parts of the country tends to stabilize, some policies may withdraw as scheduled. This means that in the second half of the year, the enterprise sector and the residential sector have normalized their social security, provident fund loans, interest payments, etc. By the end of June, the situation of market funds may face some tests.
On June 17, the Feds balance sheet fell to $7.14 trillion from $7.22 trillion a week ago, including assets ranging from treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities to bank and state loans, according to data. This is the first time the assets of the Federal Reserve have shrunk since February. This is reflected in the sharp decline in currency swaps with foreign central banks and the continued weakness in demand for other emergency credit instruments.
Gennadiy Goldberg, senior U.S. interest rate strategist at TD, said in a research report that the decline in swaps may be due to the free space made by banks for cheap loans called tltros, or because they have the ability to finance elsewhere. On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced a record off take for a new round of tltros, which means targeted long-term refinancing.
Recently, the Federal Reserve said it would buy corporate bonds, which means that easing should continue. But judging from the current situation, neither the policy potential nor the epidemic development seems to support the continuous and substantial expansion of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve on the margin.
The social financing scale of 30 trillion yuan is nearly 17% higher than that of last years nearly 25.58 trillion yuan. According to wind, less than 12 trillion yuan was spent in the first five months of last year. The total scale of social financing in the last seven months was about 13.6 trillion yuan. This scale also makes the capital market relatively stable in the fierce Sino US trade war. However, in the first five months of this year, the scale of social financing in China has reached 17.37 trillion yuan, and if the scale of social financing in this year is 30 trillion yuan, the scale in the last seven months is about 12.36 trillion yuan. This scale is not only far smaller than the market scale in the first five months, but also much smaller than the total scale in the last seven months of last year. Of course, the central bank also left a gap, which is more than 30 trillion yuan. So, how much more? It may not be clear at this time. But analysts believe that if the epidemic stabilizes, the overall scale rate in the next seven months will probably not exceed that in the first five months.
Two types of smart money may change
Second, ETF shares of A-share stabilizers continue to shrink. According to wind data, since June, the share of ETFs in the top 100 has almost declined across the board, with a total decrease of 25.22 billion shares. Among them, the two recently hot 5getfs shrank by nearly 5.2 billion in June, and technology ETFs by nearly 1.4 billion. In the past week, 5getf shares have plummeted by nearly 2.2 billion. The share of technology ETF and new energy vehicle ETF also dropped. In addition, it is worth noting that although the share of growth enterprise market and growth enterprise market 50ETF are still shrinking in June, the growth of growth enterprise market and growth enterprise market 50ETF are both positive in the past week. On the contrary, ETF shares of securities companies increased before last Monday, but this weeks share shrank again.
Analysts believe that in the current environment, the probability of a systematic bull market is still not high, but structural opportunities still exist. For example, the science and technology innovation board 50 index is about to be released, which may give some opportunities to its constituent stocks, because the following is likely to be the science and technology innovation board 50 Index Fund coming out soon. However, it should also be noted that some sectors systematically overestimate the risk. When valuation and growth do not match, even if the outlook is good, it is easy to face emotional impact.