The overall equilibrium state and structure of a shares will continue, and the evolution of external risks needs to be closely watched in the future. In terms of configuration, the new and old infrastructure and technology white horse are still the main line throughout the year. In the near future, it is suggested to focus on the period of risk disturbance and the medicine and consumption leaders enjoying high certainty premium in the disclosure quarter of China Daily, including duty-free, liquor, retail, medical equipment, diagnostic reagents, etc.
Haitong Securities: market structure will focus on Growth
u2460 If the market retreats in a short term, there is limited downward space, and the center will rise in the second half of the year. As corporate profits are expected to turn into double-digit positive growth, the focus is on the structure of the market. u2461 In the past three months, under the influence of domestic and foreign epidemic, the main line of the market is to pursue certainty. In the future, with the improvement of fundamentals, the market structure will focus on growth. u2462 Focus on growth and flexibility in the third quarter, such as technology, securities companies, automotive appliances, under estimating the repair of the industry and other catalysts, and focus on the fourth quarter window period.
Guotai Junan Securities: continue to be optimistic about consumer, medical and technological sectors
Since the beginning of the year, the A-share market has been in the middle of ice and fire. On the one hand, the performance of medical and consumption sectors is very eye-catching, and on the other hand, the performance of traditional Pro cyclical sectors is relatively weak. Behind this kind of plate performance differentiation, there are both short-term cyclical factors and long-term trend forces. From the historical experience of the global economy and stock market, the major developed countries have experienced a big consumption era, the U.S. stock market in the mid-1960s to the early 1990s saw more than 20 years of continuous consumption plate outperforming the market as a whole. At present, Chinas economy has crossed the development stage of 10000 US dollars per capita GDP. The proportion of heavy industry investment has decreased, the proportion of residents consumption has increased, and the proportion of services in consumption has increased. These general laws of economic development are also going through. From the perspective of market investment, although there may be fluctuations in the short term or some repair between sectors, the trend around consumer medicine technology is still clear. Continue to be optimistic about consumption, medical treatment, science and technology and other sectors.
Huatai Securities: incremental capital is expected to boost the index to a higher level
In terms of industry configuration, in June, it is suggested to focus on strategic grasp of auto parts, electric vehicles, semiconductors, cloud and home appliances with changing supply and demand, maintain the configuration proposal of on the floor big finance, and pay tactical attention to computer application and marketing communication.
GF Securities: stable policy expectation helps slow down financial supply side
It is expected that the global epidemic will disturb the pace of economic recovery repeatedly, but the main theme of the world is still to repair. A share is in the weak recovery of profit, the liquidity maintains a loose equity friendly combination, the discount rate downward drives the slow bull on the financial supply side, and the loose financial conditions are the core support of a share. It is suggested to use the impact of repeated domestic and foreign epidemic situations to allocate performance recovery flexibility.
Industry configuration: (1) consumer demand restoration (leisure services, general merchandise); (2) export restoration (mechanical equipment, white electricity, apple chain consumer electronics); (3) supply demand restoration (building materials / heavy cards, IDC / medical informatization / new energy vehicles).
Anxin Securities: more incremental long-term allocation funds will flow in, helping the recovery bull to stabilize and go far
It is expected that in the future, interest rates will turn from upward to volatile. Meanwhile, the expected stabilization of Sino US relations in the near future will also be conducive to market risk appetite. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous promotion of financial reform, opening up and profit giving, the high-quality recovery of financial support entities will be an important clue for the future stage, which will be conducive to the valuation of Chinas capital market, and A-share will attract more incremental long-term growth Allocate the inflow of funds to help the recovery bull go far and steadily.
On the whole, the core of a shares in the future is still to grasp the general trend of recovery bull, and the structure will spread from pure domestic consumption. Recently, the industry focuses on: new energy vehicles, apple chain, cloud computing, Internet, medicine, communication, securities companies, insurance, etc., and the theme focuses on autonomous control, Satellite Internet, etc.
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: the leader of short and medium term consumption growth and stable price situation
The pattern of leading premium of short and medium-term consumption growth is still stable. It is still the dominant structural choice idea to find the leading role of short and medium-term improvement in the plates with no downward long-term pattern.
Focus on demand replenishment in the third quarter, external demand technology (consumer electronics, new energy vehicles, photovoltaic) with catalytic resonance of the 14th five year plan industrial policy; optional consumption (home appliances, automobiles) with non aggregation of residents savings rate and consumption space opening; basic improvement of new infrastructure (5g, semiconductor equipment and consumables, ultra-high voltage, charging pile, Xinchuang) with hope of continuous verification uff09u3002
Everbright Securities: index establishment reform and governance, performance is still to be seen in the future
Last week, the Shanghai composite index adjustment rules were released, and the three reforms are aimed at the technical level revision of the Shanghai Composite Index, which has not risen in the past decade. First of all, the inclusion of red chip depository receipts and technology innovation board into the Shanghai composite index is expected to increase the proportion of the new economy of the Shanghai Composite Index and improve the situation of poor performance in the past due to the drag of the old economy; second, the elimination of risk warning stocks from the components will help optimize the index components and reduce the drag of risk stocks; finally, the time for new shares to be incorporated into the index will be adjusted to three months after listing, It will ease the drag on the index caused by the decline in the initial stage of IPO due to over valuation. As the Shanghai composite index is an important sentiment indicator of the market, the improvement of future investment return will boost the sentiment of residents and industrial capital, and it is expected to attract some incremental capital, but the long bull of A-share still needs to get rid of the potential growth rate downward caused by the decrease of labor force.
M2 / market value of a share is in the valuation quantile of 51.3% since 2011, which is still relatively reasonable. In May, the domestic economic recovery is still in order, and the high growth rate of financial data will further support the improvement of corporate profits in the second half of the year. In the absence of fundamental changes in the logic of strong data, loose policy, a relatively positive attitude towards the market can still be maintained. In terms of allocation, we should focus on industries that have shifted from policy catalysis to profit recovery, science and technology innovation industries that focus on optional consumption such as automobiles, light industry and household appliances, and make up for weaknesses. We should also pay attention to the opportunities for rebound of upstream and financial stocks in the cycle brought by the improvement of pessimistic cycle expectations.
The market has multiple logical supports for upward breakthrough: on the economic side, both sides of supply and demand continue to recover; on the policy side, the State Council guides financial support entities to open up imagination space for the subsequent reduction of standards, and the capital market reform continues to be favorable. The Shanghai Composite Index has been revised for the first time in 30 years, and the science and technology innovation board ushers in the science and technology 50 index. After the reform of the gem registration system, the market responds positively to investors The improvement of sentiment and market risk preference will play a positive role.
At present, the index is in a critical stage of cross-border, and the trading limit of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stock index options is further loosened, which to some extent reflects the relative safety of the index at present. The addition of FTSE Russell expansion brings incremental capital, and the index is expected to move towards a higher level rebound range.
After the growth enterprise market index stood at 2300, the probability of shock increased. This is not only the high point area in the early stage, but also the platform area of the index in 2016. At the same time, the Shanghai index is also facing the resistance of crossing 3000 points. At this stage, the index linkage effect is particularly important. As a leading indicator, the strong rise of gem will boost the popularity of A-share market. If the Shanghai index can successfully stand at 3000 points after the growth enterprise market rises first, there will be a positive linkage effect between the indexes, which will drive the growth enterprise market index to continue to attack. The follow-up focuses on four variables: first, whether the economic recovery is expected to be poor; second, whether the central bank has taken easing measures; third, changes in the external environment; fourth, the coming pressure to lift the ban on a shares. However, considering that the technology ETF was approved and restarted nearly five months later and the science and technology innovation board 50 index is about to be released, it is expected to hedge the pressure to lift the ban.
Guosheng Securities: kechuangniu is expected to open in the third quarter
On June 19, the Shanghai Stock Exchange announced that it would release the Shanghai Science and technology innovation board 50 component index after hours on July 22, 2020, and officially release the real-time market on July 23. At the end of the first year of the operation of science and technology innovation board, the index was set as the anchor for the operation of science and technology innovation board. In the third quarter, the first bull market in the history of science and technology innovation board is expected to open.
With low stock allocation and definite increment, it can directly drive scientific and technological innovation cattle. There are three factors: Science and technology innovation 50 index comes out, ETF is expected to bring direct increase; science and technology innovation board funds accelerate expansion, and continue to receive targeted irrigation; the stock funds are obviously low allocation, and the allocation potential is huge.
The lifting of the ban in July will bring a good opportunity to enter the market, which is expected to be the starting point of a bull market. Based on the optimistic long-term direction of science and technology innovation board and the injection of certain incremental funds, if the centralized lifting of the ban leads to short-term adjustment, it will become a good opportunity to allocate funds into the market, and more likely to become the starting point of the first bull market of science and Technology Innovation Board. It is suggested to actively grasp.
Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Yang Bin_ NF4368