Why do you say that? Because there are about 13 outbreaks in human history, and the average return in six months after each outbreak is about 7.5%. It is less than six months since the outbreak, but the returns of a shares, Hong Kong shares and US shares have exceeded the average returns in history. In human history, it can be compared with this epidemic. One is the black death in 1665. At that time, almost half of the people died in London. Because we dont know how the disease happened, how to treat it and how to prevent it, some families even went out of business, but this did not prevent London from becoming the most important city. When the Spanish pandemic happened in 1918, Vienna killed almost two-thirds of the people, and Europe killed more than 10 million people, which did not prevent Europe from becoming one of the worlds centers. Peter Lynch once said that the Spanish pandemic had a great impact on the peoples economy and psychology, but at that time, the stock market continued to hit a record high. So when this year encountered an unexpected extreme situation once in a century, from my 28 years of experience in the industry, I personally think this is a buying opportunity.
The highest point of VIX in 2008 has reached 89% and 80% in 2020. When ordinary people are likely to panic, it should be a reverse thought for experienced investors. At present, the (panic index) is about 30%. When it drops below 15%, it shows that everyones mind is calm. Last week, because of the repeat of the epidemic, the U.S. stock market plummeted. We wonder if there will be a double dip. The probability that individuals tend to double dip is relatively small.
Buffetts may shareholders meeting also reviewed the difficult years in the past, including World War I, World War II, and the changes from that time to the present in the United States. He still said he wanted to believe that the United States could survive this crisis safely. In the past hundred years of human history, an important law of capital market is that in the long run, the main market of China, the United States and Europe is spiraling. So as long as the human society is in constant progress, the rising development is a major direction. Therefore, if you agree with this rule, when a crisis occurs, you may face an opportunity.
China experienced SARS in 2003. There was a golden pit in the liquor industry at that time, and then it recovered to normal. In 2004, liquor companies raised prices one after another, which is very similar to the current situation. We see that the liquor industry is doing very well.
The occurrence of the crisis will also make many industries have very different structural changes. When SARS happened in that year, it promoted the development of e-commerce and game business. Under the outbreak, all e-commerce stocks in the US stock market performed very well. At the same time, online education, online health care, online office, cloud game, etc. also performed very well during the outbreak. There are many friends who are optimistic about 5g, and we are optimistic about it. From the content point of view, it is like 3G to 4G to promote the development of PC games to mobile games. Similarly, from 4G to 5g, it is estimated that online education, online games, online office and other business models will achieve rapid development. Now the epidemic has accelerated the development of these industries. The crisis is an opportunity for China. First of all, China has controlled the epidemic, and so is the change of the industry. It is an economic long-term situation, which is generally optimistic.
Its very important to invest in China to believe in China and choose the right track
When I went to Harvard Business School in 2018, Professor Alison told us about the comparison between China and the United States. He pointed out that when the United States saw that the balance of history tended to China, in order to balance and reverse, it was normal for the United States to introduce a series of policies to suppress China. At that time, Professor Alison also mentioned that Hillarys time of balance was too late. It should be balance when the United States was still far ahead of China in 2004. From then on, China will surpass the United States and become a stronger country in a few years. He offered a very simple reason that China is more efficient. For example, there are several bridges between Harvard Business School and undergraduate course, one of which is under repair. He said that the bridge has not been repaired for 10 years. The maintenance of the Beijing Third Bridge is to demolish and rebuild the bridge. The bridge was built in 48 hours, which is Chinas efficiency, so he thinks China is a country with faster development.
Its very difficult to make investment. Buffett went through Vietnam War, Cuba Missile Crisis, two world wars and 17 years of stagflation from his 20s in 1957 to his 50s in 1981. His investment decision was made in more difficult years. Today, we have experienced the impact of trade war and epidemic situation, but not the baptism of war. However, the recent problems between China and India have not really entered into a state of war, but in case of a war, what should the market do? The logic of Buffetts investment is very simple, but it is very difficult to practice it. We all know his famous saying that when others are greedy, they should be afraid. When others are afraid, they should be greedy. When 3000 stocks fell and stopped on February 3, I believe most people were afraid, but they did not become greedy. At the moment of decision-making, how to choose is very difficult.
In the long years, investment does not win in one year, three to five years, or even ten or twenty years. Buffett is 90 years old, in his entire career, in a very long time to win depends on what? Its very important to choose the right track. In the past hundred years, the real winning industries are mainly concentrated in the following: for example, cosmetics. Even during the epidemic, most of the female friends did not wear makeup because they were at home, but the cosmetics industry performed well during the epidemic. In the United States, cosmetics and pharmaceutical products are second only to the Internet. In China, the track is very crowded, and everyone has taken the pharmaceutical industry as the main track industry, but in the long run, they are still very good track. Secondly, drinks, tobacco, food processing, financial services, special FMCG, as well as securities companies, computers, semiconductors, liquor, etc., all performed very well.
In contrast, steel, aviation and automobile industries may encounter problems in long-term investment. We know that long-term investment can not be done in all industries, but we should choose the right track. From 1997 to 2017, computer, toy, software, communication, clothing, home furnishing, automobile and other industries all declined. But we can still see that food and beverage, education and medical care are all on the rise, so the choice of the industry is very crucial.
In 2018, many friends were worried about other issues besides the trade war, because there was also a call for private entrepreneurs to withdraw from the stage of history in 2018. But as far as my observation is concerned, I think China still has a very bright future, which is not what many people are worried about. Why does China have a future? Because no other country in the world, like the Chinese, has a population of 1.4 billion people who believe in making money. What really determines a nations long-term future is its customs, traditions, religions and cultures.
China has had frequent wars in history, but as long as there are decades of peaceful times, the Chinese peoples ability to gather wealth is either the first or the second in the world. Mr. Napolen once said that China is a sleeping lion, once it rises, it will shock the world. Since the reform and opening up, Chinas development has indeed shocked the West. They may not expect that China will achieve this in a short time. Of course, many friends are also very worried about the impact of war and other factors. I think the probability is very small. At this stage, China has reached a time when it can show its great strength. Peace and stability are still the main direction.
Why is the United States worried about Chinas development? Now there are three Bay areas in the world: New York financial center, Silicon Valley (San Francisco Innovation Center) and Tokyo manufacturing center. At present, Shenzhen, China is located in the core area of Dawan district. Of course, we also have the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and the West Triangle (such as Chongqing, Chengdu and Xian). We can see that the urban development of Chengdu is very dynamic. We also have central cities, such as Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Hefei, and Hefei, which also present great potential at present. At several important points, we have introduced some industrial chains to promote the development of Hefei.
In the past, China needed to send people to the United States to learn new business models and start businesses in China. Now many American friends go to Shenzhen to set up sites, learn our new business model, and then start businesses in the United States. Since ancient times, there has been a culture of king, marquis, general, Xiang, Ning, Xiang and Hu in China, followed by the miracle of the land under our feet. Shenzhen has surpassed Hong Kong in 39 years. Where does Shenzhen win? What does Shenzhen depend on? Just by innovation, our city is very innovative. Taking PCI international patent application as an example, Shenzhen ranks first in China for 14 consecutive years, leading Silicon Valley, Seoul and Paris, second only to Tokyo, and the progress of science and technology is very rapid. China is still making progress and hopes that Shenzhen will one day surpass Tokyo. In 2017, Shenzhens R & D expenditure accounted for 4.13% of GDP, close to the highest level in the world. 87% of R & D expenditure comes from enterprises.
Why does the United States gather the strength of one country to suppress Huawei? Why do German and British parliaments meet to decide whether to let Huawei enter their country to do business. This is very rare in human history, the whole western countries unite to restrict a company. Why? In other words, if Huawei is not a Chinese company but an American company, it may sweep the world. Take Huawei patent application as an example. In 2019, Huawei submitted 4411 patent applications, ranking first among all enterprises in the world. And for the first time in more than 40 years, China surpassed the United States in 2019 as the country with the largest number of international patent applications. So China is really very proud. Our land is a very good snowball land, with the desire for wealth, the spirit of innovation, and high morale, which has been rooted in our Chinese blood.
Investment is more than the limit of thinking, than who can see far, can insist, dare to re position. If today is not June 18, 2020, but June 18, 2030, what should we do today? Today, when we look back on 2008, if we know that when China invested 4 trillion yuan in 2008, Internet companies fell from 70 to 40 in Hong Kong, that is to say, 70 companies do not sell. It is also a very good situation to hold. In the United States, too, QoE has invested a lot of money. If those Internet giants hold it for 12 years now, the average return is quite amazing. Today we are investing in more liquidity, and wealth is generally inflated.
We are optimistic about a country, industry or enterprise. What are the winning points of these long-term investments? Is there any commonality? First of all, they are all industry leaders. Second, their roe is as high as 22.9%. Third, they are the strong ones, HENGQIANG. Moreover, their valuation is relatively reasonable. These companies have generally performed very well this year.
At present, the market situation, in general, we think that the probability of the bottom is relatively large, this is a low-lying area. At present, after the double impact of trade war and epidemic situation, I cant think of any greater impact unless there is a war, but the probability is very small. This position is at the bottom of the valley. In addition, the market has experienced a change similar to the registration system of the stock reform. I always believe that the day when the registration system really comes is the beginning of A-share long bull and slow bull. Why is registration so important? Because it is possible for the market to change from a sellers market to a buyers market. We can see that the buyers market is not the sellers market in the worlds major developed countries, and the phenomenon of daily limit plate of our stock is very rare in the world, except for China. The stock reform created a bull market in 2006 and 2007. It is hoped that when the registration system comes, it will lead the pattern of A-share long bull and slow bull. In the past, the bull market of a share was very short and the bear market was very long, because the demand was greater than the supply, the future trend of a share is likely to be a longer-term slow bull. Buffett said: the most important thing in life is to find enough wet snow and long enough slope. Now there are many slopes in China, especially the newly listed Unicorn companies, which can keep pace with American companies. It can be said that there are many good historical opportunities. Source: Yang Qian, editor in charge of Securities Times_ NF4425
At present, the market situation, in general, we think that the probability of the bottom is relatively large, this is a low-lying area. At present, after the double impact of trade war and epidemic situation, I cant think of any greater impact unless there is a war, but the probability is very small. This position is at the bottom of the valley. In addition, the market has experienced a change similar to the registration system of the stock reform. I always believe that the day when the registration system really comes is the beginning of A-share long bull and slow bull. Why is registration so important? Because it is possible for the market to change from a sellers market to a buyers market. We can see that the buyers market is not the sellers market in the worlds major developed countries, and the phenomenon of daily limit plate of our stock is very rare in the world, except for China.
The stock reform created a bull market in 2006 and 2007. It is hoped that when the registration system comes, it will lead the pattern of A-share long bull and slow bull. In the past, the bull market of a share was very short and the bear market was very long, because the demand was greater than the supply, the future trend of a share is likely to be a longer-term slow bull.
Buffett said: the most important thing in life is to find enough wet snow and long enough slope. Now there are many slopes in China, especially the newly listed Unicorn company, which can already keep pace with the American company, so it can be said that there are many good historical opportunities.