Economic recovery enters a new stage, economists help expand demand and stabilize expectations

category:Finance
 Economic recovery enters a new stage, economists help expand demand and stabilize expectations


However, the report also pointed out that since the second quarter, consumption has rebounded significantly, but the year-on-year growth rate has not been out of the negative range. In May, the total retail sales of social consumer goods actually increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the cumulative actual year-on-year growth from January to May was 15.9%. From the perspective of social production and economic cycle, the lack of terminal consumption demand has become the biggest constraint for enterprises to return to work and achieve production and expand reproduction investment. After the completion of the stage of supply driven economic recovery, the performance of economic recovery in the new stage will largely depend on the pace and degree of demand recovery.

As for how to stabilize expectations and expand demand, the CMF report suggests that a 3 trillion yuan consumption stimulus and income subsidy plan should be introduced decisively to break the over conservative tendency of residents consumption and unblock the blocking points of macroeconomic cycle. From the perspective of peoples livelihood support and family rescue, a three-tier income subsidy scheme has been formed, adding three layers of insurance for the society: first, 1500 yuan consumption voucher per capita for middle-income families and above; second, 1500 yuan consumption voucher + 1200 yuan cash per capita for low-income families; third, 1500 yuan consumption voucher + 1200 yuan cash per capita for poor families + special poverty alleviation fund.

Yao Yang, President of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, said that it is not a good way to issue consumption coupons in the form of red envelopes and fixed products. The minimum limit should be unlimited products, instead of using the method of time limited e-cash. To subsidize low-income people, we should first identify them effectively. In addition, in the medium and long term, the full coverage of social security is a very important indicator of modernization. However, according to the current social security system, it is too difficult to achieve full coverage, calling for hierarchical management of social security contributions.

Mao Zhenhua, CO director of the Institute of economics of Renmin University of China and co chairman of CMF, believes that comprehensive testing makes Wuhan the safest city in the world. It is also possible for Wuhan to establish an important demonstration of public health system after the outbreak, and at the same time bring development opportunities to related industries. In terms of the whole country, it is also necessary to do a better job in nucleic acid detection, and further expand the detection capacity in problematic areas.

Up to now, the inflection point of global epidemic development has not yet arrived, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty in vaccine research and development. Liu said it is important to realize that the spread of the global epidemic has shown that the turning point of this round of epidemic is not in the second quarter previously predicted. The inflection point of the epidemic is pushed back, and the deterioration of emerging economies will drive the bottom of the global economy forward to the third quarter. The impact of changes in external demand on our smooth flow of funds, the third quarter and even the fourth quarter is still a high concern for us, Liu said. Gao Peiyong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed that the policy operations and measures to hedge the impact of the epidemic should be tied with the epidemic situation, advance and retreat together with the epidemic situation, disappear with the end of the epidemic situation, and cannot spill out of the epidemic situation, and spill out to the normal year of production and life, so the unconventional measures should be taken with the thinking of squeezing toothpaste. Source: responsible editor of Securities Times: Zhong Qiming_ NF5619

Up to now, the inflection point of global epidemic development has not yet arrived, and there is still a high degree of uncertainty in vaccine research and development. Liu said it is important to realize that the spread of the global epidemic has shown that the turning point of this round of epidemic is not in the second quarter previously predicted. The inflection point of the epidemic is pushed back, and the deterioration of emerging economies will drive the bottom of the global economy forward to the third quarter.

The impact of changes in external demand on our smooth flow of funds, the third quarter and even the fourth quarter is still a high concern for us, Liu said.

Gao Peiyong, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, stressed that the policy operations and measures to hedge the impact of the epidemic should be tied with the epidemic situation, advance and retreat together with the epidemic situation, disappear with the end of the epidemic situation, and cannot spill out of the epidemic situation, and spill out to the normal year of production and life, so the unconventional measures should be taken with the thinking of squeezing toothpaste.