Live delivery in the second half: carrying traffic to make the supply chain

category:Finance
 Live delivery in the second half: carrying traffic to make the supply chain


Live broadcasting cannot create demand

As a result of the emergence of the head star anchor, the current discussion of live with goods is mainly focused on its new channel form. The emergence of the head star class anchor may aggravate the monopoly in this new channel.

The online red market is similar to the star market. The industry is characterized by winner taking all, and the top stars account for almost 80% - 90% of the market share. Once the channel of live delivery is monopolized, the share of channel in the whole value chain will be further expanded.

However, although the intensification of channel monopoly will lead to the winner take all of the head anchors, but the live delivery is not the same as other markets, and the monopoly of channels will bring many restrictions at the same time.

The biggest limitation is the product structure. Because the live broadcast is a very shallow purchase decision, most cases do not need to be considered carefully, which puts forward a very strict restriction on the product: the unit price of the product cannot be too high; even if the product quality is not good, it cannot cause major problems, so as to ensure that the after-sales will not bring major problems.

The limitation of product structure determines that the live delivery as a new channel can only be used as a promotion means for a certain kind of products. Even if there are occasionally famous brands selling products through the live delivery channel, it is only a channel advertisement, essentially the same as the entry fee in the traditional retail channel.

The basis of this judgment is that the increment of the whole market is impossible, the total amount of retail market is determined by the economic level, and the proportion of retail market in GDP is relatively stable. Due to the impact of the epidemic and other factors, it is expected that the economy will not be very good in the next two years, so at least the overall volume of the retail market will shrink in the next two years, and the share of e-commerce in the overall retail market will increase.

The marketing expenses of the company are divided into TOC and tob. For some companies, the marketing cost of Tob is very high, which is what we often call the channel marketing cost of consumer goods manufacturers. For example, the channel marketing expenses of P & G, a consumer goods giant, account for about 60% of its total marketing costs, and the remaining 40% is the advertising we often see.

After the overall budget of the marketing expenses of the brand business is determined, the difference between now and the past is that there are more channels of netred, so a part of the marketing budget of the brand business will flow to netred.

As a result, live tape will not increase the size of the retail market. The rapid growth of live tape we see now is actually a replacement of the existing stock.

Live second half

There is no doubt that live delivery is one of the biggest outlets in 2020, and it will also follow the development law of Internet outlets. After the emergence of new things, players quickly enter the horse racing circle, followed by a head monopoly, followed by regulatory access, the industry reshuffle.

The Internet market has always been divided for a long time. With the development of live delivery, it has become a red sea, and the industry itself is also iterating at a high speed. It is expected that the next step will be to see the industry begin to shuffle and market regulation enter.

The reshuffle of the industry first means that the industrys popularity will decline. Everyone realizes that this technology can be used by all people, and maybe all stores will live broadcast the products in the future. Most of the live broadcast has become a marketing tool rather than a new channel.

The new channel of live delivery will show polarization. First, the bulk sales of the head anchor are characterized by low customer unit price, low purchase risk and good promotion.

The other is the so-called niche market, which will be a small but highly professional model. Professional or more accurate minority anchor, relying on professional knowledge, to help brand makers build brands. In this case, the purchase threshold of sales products will be higher, and the purchase decision of many products is not simpler than the purchase of cars, and the goods may have high customer unit price.

In the future, the monopoly of the live broadcast market will be more serious and the role of the head will be greater. In addition, the impact of regulatory entry on the industry deserves most attention. With the increase of the market share of live broadcast with goods, the impact on the retail market is growing, and the supervision will inevitably enter.

I think live delivery is between advertising and agency. It has a strong advertising nature in essence, and it is an agency role in essence. In most cases, it will not directly contact the product from the factory to the consumer, but the consumer to live consumption, often think that the anchor should be responsible for the after-sales of the product. Although it seems that people are flocking to live broadcast now, the market will become more and more rational in the future.

Supply chain is the core of live delivery

Retail is built on two capabilities, the front-end drainage and the back of the supply chain.

Drainage and supply chain complement each other. Without the ability of drainage, it is difficult to control the supply chain.

Not only the live broadcast room, but also most e-businesses are not vertically integrated, that is, they are not stores directly opened by manufacturers. Live studio and Taobao store are middlemen, they are separated from the supply chain, and both sides will inevitably play games. Only when there is a large amount of traffic in the live room can the supply chain be controlled.

If the live delivery is the same path, use its own strong front-end engine to control the back-end supply chain, and require the supply chain to follow the requirements of the live room, and the products, prices, delivery cycle and inventory should be done according to the requirements of the live room, so as to achieve. So the core is the supply chain. Therefore, the road of carrying traffic to make the supply chain is inevitable for the online Red e-commerce in the past and the live broadcast goods in the future. But this is a very difficult path because the supply chain is very complex and requires expertise and skills. Netred has a very fast iteration speed, and the freshness of consumers is disappearing faster and faster. If the anchor wants to develop in the industry in the long run, building the supply chain behind is the core. Chen Xinlei, Professor of marketing, Shanghai Advanced Finance College, Shanghai Jiaotong University, interviewed by Li Si, reporter of this newspaper. Source: responsible editor of Economic Observer: Yang Qian_ NF4425

If the live delivery is the same path, use its own strong front-end engine to control the back-end supply chain, and require the supply chain to follow the requirements of the live room, and the products, prices, delivery cycle and inventory should be done according to the requirements of the live room, so as to achieve. So the core is the supply chain.

Therefore, the road of carrying traffic to make the supply chain is inevitable for the online Red e-commerce in the past and the live broadcast goods in the future. But this is a very difficult path because the supply chain is very complex and requires expertise and skills. Netred has a very fast iteration speed, and the freshness of consumers is disappearing faster and faster. If the anchor wants to develop in the industry in the long run, building the supply chain behind is the core.

(Chen Xinlei, Professor of marketing, Shanghai Advanced Finance College, Shanghai Jiaotong University; interviewed by Li Si, reporter of this newspaper)