According to the economic observation network, from the perspective of the non-ferrous metal industry prosperity index in the past 12 months, the highest point of the prosperity index is September 2019, reaching 22.7. After entering 2020, the prosperity index has been hovering below 20, and by April 2020, it has reached the lowest point in the past 12 months, 17.
According to the index release agency, after a short downturn in the first quarter of 2020, the domestic non-ferrous industry has gradually returned to normal production and operation.
Non ferrous metals include all metals except iron, chromium and manganese, which are the basic materials for the development of national economy. Most industries, including aviation, aerospace, automobile, machinery manufacturing, electric power, communication, construction, home appliances, etc., are based on non-ferrous materials.
This months report on Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index shows that the global economy in May continues to be in recession, and the prospect is worrying. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control measures, the global service industry and manufacturing industry have been hit hard, and international trade has also been hit. With the exception of the United States, the economies of all countries have shrunk seriously, and the downside risk has further intensified.
In the first quarter, the GDP of 27 EU countries fell 3.3% on a month on month basis; the Japanese economy shrank for two consecutive quarters, and the GDP in the first quarter fell 2.2% on an annual basis. Although developed countries continue to speed up the pace of return to work and production, due to the global epidemic continues to spread, resulting in a complete economic recovery will be much longer than originally expected.
On the domestic side, the production and operation of domestic enterprises gradually recovered in May, and the economy continued to repair under the background of increasing macro policies. However, affected by the global economic contraction, the domestic economy also faces greater pressure. Thanks to the accelerated resumption of construction and production and the strong support of macro policies, investment in real estate and infrastructure has recovered significantly, but the demand for investment in manufacturing industry is still weak. In terms of import and export, the main reason for the recovery can be attributed to the digestion of enterprises backlog orders in the early stage. In terms of consumption, especially the consumption of automobiles, the overall consumption is still unsatisfactory.
In terms of industry, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions, the production of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals has maintained a steady growth in general, the decline in the output of mining products has been narrowed, the output of processing products has been turned from decline to increase, and the decline in investment in fixed assets of non-ferrous metals has been narrowed.
In May, the continuous improvement of domestic macro-economy stimulated the development of aluminum industry, and aluminum prices in futures and spot markets rose steadily. The highest value of main contracts in the month was 13260 yuan / ton, which was a recent high. Copper market also showed a significant increase. In May, Shanghai copper main contract closed at 43940 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton month on month, up 2.3%.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Prosperity Index releasing agency, considering the current overseas epidemic situation is still spreading and geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, the world economic development is facing more uncertainties and risk challenges, which will also have a negative impact on the return to normal operation of the nonferrous metals industry. However, with the gradual recovery of domestic economic life and the introduction of a series of new policies to stabilize the economy. These have gradually played a role in the recovery of confidence of non-ferrous enterprises and the boost of metal prices.
In addition, according to the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence index developed by China non ferrous metal industry association, the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence rebounded in the second quarter to 49.1, up 4.3 points on month, but although it has improved, it is still below the 50 critical point.
Specifically, 4 of the 10 indicators are higher than the critical point of 50. On a month on month basis, all indicators rose in varying degrees, and the seven indicators all showed a double-digit increase. Among them, the new order quantity, production quantity, purchase quantity of raw materials and purchase unit price of raw materials are all above the critical point of 50, indicating that the production of enterprises is basically at the normal level. Although the number of employees, the level of enterprise profits and the operating environment of enterprises have increased significantly compared with the previous period, both the immediate and expected indicators are lower than 50, which reflects that enterprises are still facing some difficulties in operation. Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index release Agency predicted that the recent prosperity index will be in the lower part of the cold range, or there may be a slight recovery.
Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index release Agency predicted that the recent prosperity index will be in the lower part of the cold range, or there may be a slight recovery.