According to the economic observation network, from the perspective of the non-ferrous metal industry prosperity index in the past 12 months, the highest point of the prosperity index is September 2019, reaching 22.7. After entering 2020, the prosperity index has been hovering below 20, and by April 2020, it has reached the lowest point in the past 12 months, 17.
From a longer time period, in 2009 and 2010, the prosperity index of nonferrous metals industry once reached the range of 80-90, which is overheating. After 2010, the non-ferrous metal industry started a long period of concussion and decline. By 2016, the prosperity index had reached the lowest point in the past 14 years, only about 10 years. Since then, with the opening of supply side structural reform in China, the non-ferrous metal prosperity index began to pick up again.
According to the index release agency, after a short downturn in the first quarter of 2020, the domestic non-ferrous industry has gradually returned to normal production and operation.
Non ferrous metals include all metals except iron, chromium and manganese, which are the basic materials for the development of national economy. Most industries, including aviation, aerospace, automobile, machinery manufacturing, electric power, communication, construction, home appliances, etc., are based on non-ferrous materials.
This months report on Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index shows that the global economy in May continues to be in recession, and the prospect is worrying. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control measures, the global service industry and manufacturing industry have been hit hard, and international trade has also been hit. With the exception of the United States, the economies of all countries have shrunk seriously, and the downside risk has further intensified.
In fact, the prosperity of nonferrous metals and ferrous metals after the outbreak of the epidemic showed obvious differences. According to the analysis of the Economic Observer network, this is related to the different industrial application structure of the two. From the perspective of relevance, infrastructure construction and real estate play a more significant role in promoting ferrous metals, which also explains why the recovery of non-ferrous metals industry is weaker than that of ferrous metals.
In terms of industry, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation in various regions, the production of ten kinds of non-ferrous metals has maintained a steady growth in general, the decline in the output of mining products has been narrowed, the output of processing products has been turned from decline to increase, and the decline in investment in fixed assets of non-ferrous metals has been narrowed.
In May, the continuous improvement of domestic macro-economy stimulated the development of aluminum industry, and aluminum prices in futures and spot markets rose steadily. The highest value of main contracts in the month was 13260 yuan / ton, which was a recent high. Copper market also showed a significant increase. In May, Shanghai copper main contract closed at 43940 yuan / ton, up 1000 yuan / ton month on month, up 2.3%.
According to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Prosperity Index releasing agency, considering the current overseas epidemic situation is still spreading and geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, the world economic development is facing more uncertainties and risk challenges, which will also have a negative impact on the return to normal operation of the nonferrous metals industry. However, with the gradual recovery of domestic economic life and the introduction of a series of new policies to stabilize the economy. These have gradually played a role in the recovery of confidence of non-ferrous enterprises and the boost of metal prices.
In addition, according to the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence index developed by China non ferrous metal industry association, the non-ferrous metal enterprise confidence rebounded in the second quarter to 49.1, up 4.3 points on month, but although it has improved, it is still below the 50 critical point.
Specifically, 4 of the 10 indicators are higher than the critical point of 50. On a month on month basis, all indicators rose in varying degrees, and the seven indicators all showed a double-digit increase. Among them, the new order quantity, production quantity, purchase quantity of raw materials and purchase unit price of raw materials are all above the critical point of 50, indicating that the production of enterprises is basically at the normal level. Although the number of employees, the profit level of the enterprise and the operating environment of the enterprise have rebounded significantly compared with the previous index number, both the current and expected indexes are lower than 50, reflecting that the current enterprise still faces some difficulties in operation. Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index release Agency predicted that the recent prosperity index will be in the lower part of the cold range, or there may be a slight recovery.
Specifically, 4 of the 10 indicators are higher than the critical point of 50. On a month on month basis, all indicators rose in varying degrees, and the seven indicators all showed a double-digit increase. Among them, the new order quantity, production quantity, purchase quantity of raw materials and purchase unit price of raw materials are all above the critical point of 50, indicating that the production of enterprises is basically at the normal level. Although the number of employees, the level of enterprise profits and the operating environment of enterprises have increased significantly compared with the previous period, both the immediate and expected indicators are lower than 50, which reflects that enterprises are still facing some difficulties in operation.
Chinas nonferrous metals industry prosperity index release Agency predicted that the recent prosperity index will be in the lower part of the cold range, or there may be a slight recovery.