Tesla will buy cobalt raw materials from Glencore for its Shanghai plant and its planned Berlin plant, the Financial Times quoted people familiar with the matter as saying.
Tesla has signed a three-year lithium battery supply and pricing agreement with Panasonic on June 10, 2020, covering the production and supply of lithium-ion batteries at Panasonics super plant in Nevada.
Big guess of Tesla battery day
Tesla battery day is expected to have three main lines, one is new battery technology, the other is the plan for purchasing batteries from abroad, and the third is the plan for self-made batteries.
In terms of new battery technology, in 2019, Tesla successively acquired Maxwell and HIBAR. Maxwells main business areas involve super capacitor and dry electrode technology, and HIBAR is an expert in battery manufacturing.
The new patent trends of battery day core include: u2460 adding two kinds of electrolyte to improve the formula u2461 dry electrode and pre lithium u2462 cobalt free u2463 structure level improvement.
Everbright Securities arranges the beneficiary companies of corresponding patent technology as follows:
According to Tianfeng securities analysis, Maxwell is a global leader in the field of dry electrode technology, and now it tries to apply the dry battery technology to the field of lithium battery. The advantage of using dry method for lithium battery is to reduce the cost by 10-20%, increase the energy density by 50%, and prolong the battery life by one time, which is very significant for improving the performance of lithium battery. Maxwell claims that it is expected to reduce the cost by 10-20% and increase the energy density by 50% by using dry method compared with wet method. At present, the energy density of single cell breaking through 300wh / kg has been verified, and it is expected to reach 500wh / kg and the battery life will be doubled after 2025.
Among A-share listed companies, new Zebang products are widely used in aluminum electrolytic capacitors, aluminum foil, solid-state capacitors, super capacitors, etc. Maxwell is one of the companys important customers. Shandong enogang New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a joint-stock company of Shandong ZhangGu, has now mastered the production technology of dry process electrode, relying on which it has produced super capacitors and lithium titanate batteries in small scale. Shenzhen technology has many years of cooperation with Maxwell in the field of supercapacitors.
According to Wang Peng of Zheshang securities, whether its dry electrode technology or pre lithium technology, its still based on the existing system of lithium-ion batteries in essence, so the demand for lithium will not change due to technology iteration, so its suggested to focus on the upstream lithium and lithium iron phosphate industry targets.
Among the listed companies, Ganfeng international, a subsidiary of Ganfeng lithium industry, signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Tesla, and Tesla designated its battery supplier to purchase battery grade lithium hydroxide products from the company and Ganfeng International; Ningde times and Tesla have signed a mass production supply pricing agreement, and Tesla will purchase lithium-ion power batteries from Ningde times. Talison, a subsidiary of Tianqi lithium holdings, currently has an annual capacity of 740000 tons of lithium concentrate in phase I, 600000 tons in phase II and 600000 tons in phase III, which is expected to be completed and put into operation in the fourth quarter of 2020.
According to Wang Lei of Guosheng securities, Teslas dry electrode + pre lithium supplement technology is expected to accelerate the commercial application of silicon carbon anode. It is suggested to pay attention to high-quality listed companies such as Baoan and putailai.
Baoan, China: the company holds 75.48% of the equity of beiteri. The technology of beiteri silicon-based products is 2-3 years ahead of the domestic counterparts. At present, it has a capacity of 3000 tons, and supplies Panasonic, LG and Samsung. It has entered the supply chain of Tesla and become the core supplier of Tesla. Its specific capacity of silicon carbon anode has been increased to 1500mah / g.
Battery purchase plan
Tesla has made it clear that the battery suppliers are Panasonic (supporting the United States, now 35gwh, expanding to 54gwh at the end of the year), LG supporting Shanghai Tesla (this year 10gwh +, whether to expand production next year has not been determined), Ningde supporting standard endurance iron lithium (LFP) version (if it is fast, it will be officially supplied in June and July, and the ternary version will progress smoothly in the test, and may start to be formally supported next year).
Tesla will release more detailed purchase plan or share information on battery day.
CITIC Securities said that the cost of lithium iron phosphate is relatively low, and the battery cost accounts for a high proportion of the whole vehicle. Tesla needs to achieve large volume, and there is an objective need for cost reduction. By manufacturing intelligent electric vehicles with good quality and low price, it really promotes the development of the industry, and thus brings energy revolution.
BYDs original capacity of lithium iron phosphate is 10gwh. Currently, the projects under investment include the construction project of Qinghai BYD Industrial Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 20000 tons of lithium iron phosphate.
In the first phase of Baoan beiteri Changzhou project, the current NCA planning capacity is 15000 T / A, lithium iron phosphate planning capacity is 15000 T / A, graphite negative material planning capacity is 30000 T / A, and some production line equipment has been put into operation.
Germanys core nano product, lithium iron phosphate, is mainly used to prepare lithium-ion power batteries and energy storage batteries. The annual capacity of lithium iron phosphate is 63000 tons, and more than 60% of its revenue comes from Ningde era.
With an annual capacity of 30000 tons, the company has successfully developed a new product of electrolytic manganese dioxide for lithium-ion batteries.
Yutao, a member of Minsheng securities, disagrees, arguing that Tesla is less likely to launch cobalt free batteries. According to Teslas existing technologies and patents, it cant be separated from cobalt temporarily, and ternary battery is still the mainstream direction in the next five years. Tesla is expected to continue to innovate in electrodes, electrolytes and processes based on its low cobalt route. We are optimistic about the future valuation and repair of Tesla battery, continue to recommend Huayou cobalt industry and focus on Luoyang molybdenum industry.
Self made battery
Tesla battery may initially build small-scale capacity to improve technology and prepare for cost reduction, which is equivalent to an experiment. Later, compare self-made battery with purchased battery to see whether to expand.
The advantages of self-made batteries still lie in software, modules and BMS. In the short term, it will not build large capacity, but mainly outsourcing. Ningde and LG have more advantages in battery manufacturing.
Diagram Tesla battery industry chain
Related targets of Tesla industrial chain battery system (including enterprises with potential to enter the supply chain)
Source of Research Report: Dongxing securities
Tesla industrial chain (focus on battery)
Source of Research Report: Industrial Securities source of this paper: Science and technology innovation board daily editor in charge: Wang Wenhua_ NF5982