Recently, novel coronavirus pneumonia has reappeared in Beijing. According to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, the second-hand housing transactions in medium and high-risk areas were delayed, some new housing sales offices in Fengtai District and Daxing District were temporarily closed, and several joint property rights projects announced the postponement of housing selection plan. Beijings property market is inevitably affected.
In the previous may, the transaction scale of commercial housing (new housing + second-hand housing) in Beijing exceeded 20000 sets, reaching the highest point after the 317 New Deal in 2017.
Now, Beijings real estate market small Yangchun appears rapid cooling.
Multiple sales offices closed
On June 15, the Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development issued a notice calling for strengthening the prevention and control of the epidemic situation in Beijings housing rental agencies. Stores located in the middle and high-risk areas of the epidemic should suspend all kinds of gathering activities. On the evening of June 16, the response level of public health emergencies in Beijing was adjusted to level II. Do not stop production, but encourage home office and remote office.
In Fengtai, Daxing, Fangshan and other areas, there are some projects that have not closed the sales offices, and the whole staff of the real estate consultants have been tested for nucleic acid. However, the marketing director of a project in Daxing District told 21st century economic news that although the sales office has not been closed, the number of people watching houses has decreased significantly in recent days, no one dare to come to Nancheng..
Meanwhile, according to official information, a number of property rights housing projects in Beijing will be postponed. The plan will be postponed, including Chaoyang District Wutong Bay Jiayuan, Fengtai District Kang run home, Yan Bao, Yin Di home, Hongye Hing Garden, nunting new court, Guo Zhuangzi home, etc. the starting time will be announced according to the epidemic situation.
This situation will have a short-term impact on Beijings new housing transactions. The aforementioned real estate enterprises believe that the new housing transactions in Fengtai, Daxing and Fangshan districts of Beijing will decline, which will affect the short-term transaction scale of new housing in Beijing. These three areas are areas with large supply of new houses in Beijing in the near future, which will affect at least 20% - 30% of new house transactions in the city in the short term.
In terms of second-hand housing, the transaction volume of second-hand housing market also decreased due to the strengthened access management of some communities and the decline of purchase intention caused by the epidemic.
Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, believes that the rebound of the current round of Beijing epidemic has a significant impact on short-term transactions in the market. According to the data of Shell Research Institute, the trading volume of Beijing chain house fell by 17% compared with the average value of the previous three weekends on the weekend of June 13 and June 14, of which Fengtai District fell by 23%. From June 15 to June 18, the trading volume of Beijing chain stores fell 45% compared with the same period of the previous week, of which Fengtai District fell 66%.
Before this round of market cooling, Beijing real estate market is experiencing the hottest period in recent years. Since the end of March, Beijings property market has gradually warmed up and reached a trading high in May.
According to the data of Beijing Municipal Commission of housing and urban rural development, in May 2020, the number of second-hand housing online signs in Beijing was 16000, an increase of 39% on a month on month basis and 75% on a year-on-year basis. Taking into account the scale of 4172 new housing transactions, the scale of commercial housing transactions in Beijing exceeded 20000 in May, reaching the highest point after the 317 New Deal in 2017.
Among them, on May 29, the single-day trading scale of second-hand houses in Beijing broke through 1000 sets, which is the first time since March 2019.
But in June, about 80% of the second-hand housing transactions in the market began to decline. A number of institutions told 21st century economic report that since June, the volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has been significantly lower than that in May. This is mainly caused by two reasons: the decline in the volume of housing transactions in the school district and the rise in prices of some housing sources.
Most respondents believe that the recent outbreak is accelerating market cooling in the short term. Among them, the volume of Beijings real estate market in June may have a decline of 30-40%. In the long run, although prevention and control is becoming more and more normalized, if the epidemic can be controlled quickly, the market will not be greatly affected.
Xu Xiaole believes that in the long run, the current Beijing market is dominated by the demand for improved housing, and the demand suppressed by the epidemic will gradually be released in the next few months as the epidemic subsides. The epidemic is expected to have limited impact on both parties, and the annual average price will not change significantly.
Source: Zhang Mei, editor in charge of 21st century economic report_ NF2100