Considering that the market has been slowing down gradually in the past month, even the smallest events can stimulate the market to respond. A large number of orders around the current price will make it more vulnerable to fluctuations in any trading direction.
The relevance with the stock market raises questions about safe assets
According to the CEO of precious metals investment company Dan Tapiero, J.P. Morgan expects the next rally in the stock market to lead excess capital to gold and bitcoin, and if more people believe it, then Xiangfang will be contacted, which will drive the price of (gold and bitcoin) up strongly.
Recently, bitcoin and the stock market have shown the characteristics of rising and falling together. According to the chart information of coinmetrics, a cryptocurrency data company, bitcoins relevance to the S & P 500 index has continued to rise, from 0 in March (stock market crash) to more than 0.2 in May, and it has been climbing to a new high since June. Compared with gold, which is regarded as a safe haven asset, their correlation keeps falling, from 0.1 at the end of March to below the horizontal line at the beginning of June, or even reverse change, and at the same time, they have a negative correlation with the VIX Index.
Although this correlation has not been fully determined, the safe haven value of cryptocurrencies has attracted investors attention, and more risk factors may promote this correlation coefficient to continue to rise.
BTC / USD technical analysis
The daily K-line chart confirms that the trading range is a bearish one, as the price remains below the 50 day SMA average, at $9400. The daily floor of the brin belt is $9150, and the next focus will be $9000, followed by $8750 of the 50 week SMA average.
In the upward direction, bitcoin continues to break through the resistance level of US $9550 in the near future, improves in the technical aspect in the short term, and is expected to further rebound to the psychological level of US $10000, but the daily ceiling of the brin belt increases this barrier. This is dangerous because many retail traders may choose to lock in profits directly at this stage, so the price will return to this range again.
More than 74% of bitcoin investors are now profitable, according to intotheblock data, even if prices only fluctuate within a narrow range from $9500 to $9600, which means there may be more long-term involvement in the future.
The vote above reflects optimism in the market, with weekly and monthly forecasts shifting from bearish to bullish, with only quarterly forecasts neutral and prices below $10000 at all times. This means that most investors do not believe that there will be a sustainable recovery in the future.
In a June 18 report, chainalysis, an encryption analytics company, said 60% of bitcoin investors are long-term holders and sell less than 25% as digital gold.. Another 20% of bitcoin has never been traded in five years or more, known as lost bitcoin, and the remaining 3.5 million. They often move between exchanges.