The main contracts of Shanghai copper 2007 fell first and then rose this year, source: wind data
Listed copper companies are fond of rising copper prices.
The Securities Department of Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630. SZ) said that the companys product prices follow the market, and the recent rise in copper prices is good for the second quarters performance. The specific situation needs to be disclosed in the semi annual report, and now the orders are full. Jiangxi copper (600362. SH) securities department also said that the companys production and orders are normal.
Our copper output is very small, 100000 tons a year, Miao Hongqiang, a secretary of Yuguang Gold lead (600531. SH), told the associated press of Finance in an interview. Recently, downstream customers of the company have a high enthusiasm to take goods and sell them very fast, and now there is no inventory.
Wang Yi, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information copper, believes that the fall in the price of copper in the first quarter is related to the panic brought about by the epidemic, and the downstream demand has not yet risen in February and March. The rise started in April because of the stimulation of the business level of orders, but after May, the rise in the price of copper is more of the capital speculation caused by the macro level.
Copper price or high volatility
According to the introduction of the insiders mentioned above, the copper industry chain is divided by upstream, middle and downstream. The upstream is copper mine and electrolytic copper enterprise, the midstream is copper processing enterprise, and the downstream is widely used. There are enterprises in the fields of electricity, air conditioning and refrigeration, and the proportion of electricity in the copper consumption structure is nearly half. The upstream and downstream enterprises are relatively large, the midstream is mainly small and medium-sized enterprises, and Hailiang shares are slightly larger (002203. SZ), etc.
Wang Yi disclosed that in recent years, the company has investigated 40 or 50 copper processing enterprises in East China and North China. Most of the feedback orders are not optimistic, and they dare not keep bullish on the copper price. Some enterprises even said that they had no orders in May and had a rest in June. A few copper alloy enterprises have relatively good orders.
Hailiangs Securities Department said that the companys situation in the second quarter may be similar to that in the first quarter. The epidemic has an impact on the company, and the specific impact will be disclosed in the semi annual report.
According to Wang Yiqiang, in addition to the business level, copper is war readiness material, and its financial attribute is also an important factor affecting the price. Since the second quarter of this year, factors such as the overseas epidemic situation and the domestic situation in the United States have led to the fluctuation of the US dollar index, so there has been capital inflow into the basic gold sector, including copper.
Since May, the US dollar index has fallen after shocks, source: wind data
For the next trend of copper price, listed copper companies have slightly different views.
Jiangxi Copper Securities Department said that in general, there will be two variables in copper price, one is the epidemic situation, the other is the global monetary easing. The company thinks that it will still go up, but it is difficult to predict the epidemic situation. According to the Ministry of non ferrous securities of Tongling, there are many downstream exports of copper terminals, and the overseas epidemic will have an impact on exports.
As a producer, we cant be too optimistic about the price forecast. We will be relatively conservative, but we are optimistic in the long run. Zijin Mining (601899. SH) securities department said it was cautious.
According to the relevant person in charge of Luoyang molybdenum industry (603993. SH), copper is a product that is often fried by funds. Generally, the price increase is caused by the superposition of many factors. With the support of fundamentals, funds are willing to cooperate to pull up. The short-term trend is affected by various uncertain factors such as epidemic situation.
Wang Yi predicted that the copper price in the second half of the year is expected to fluctuate at a high level of 45000-50000 yuan. If the economic recovery is fast, the downstream demand release will rush to 50000 yuan. If the epidemic continues, copper will be favored as a safe asset and 45000 yuan will have strong support.
Production and operation are normal, orders are in full, compared with the first quarter performance has significantly improved, but the domestic and foreign epidemic is still uncertain.