Red may killed: hidden worries behind the restorative recovery of Shanghai property market

category:Finance
 Red may killed: hidden worries behind the restorative recovery of Shanghai property market


Chen you originally planned to replace it in 2016, but met with the introduction of Shanghai six rules. At that time, many people were stuck in the down payment when they bought the second set of houses and subscribed for loans. The purchase demand shrank, and the houses have not been sold out. She is very glad that someone would like to buy her house at the end of last year and sell it at once, or after this years epidemic, the house price will rise again..

This years red may in Shanghais property market came as promised. From March to may, Shanghais property market recovered in a straight line: 5000 first-hand houses were sold in April and 9000 in May; the rising trend of second-hand house data was more obvious, with 15200 in March, 24600 in April and 29000 in May.

The turnover of 9000 first-hand houses in Shanghai in May reached a new high in 45 months since September 2016. Moreover, in May, the average transaction price of new commercial housing in Shanghai was 63717 yuan / m2, up 6% month on month, up 15% year-on-year, and the house price rose significantly. The 29000 units in may have reached a new high in 44 months since October 2016 in Shanghai. And 2016 is the hottest year in the history of Shanghai real estate market.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, pointed out that in fact, Shanghais real estate market is hot, which means that there are three elements, including supply, demand and loans. From the perspective of supply itself, the pace of real estate supply in Shanghai has accelerated since April. At this time, real estate enterprises have also actively launched projects for sales and accelerated the pace of marketing. From the demand side, in fact, it is also because the demand for housing is very strong. The improved and school districts also show that there is no lack of demand for housing in Shanghai. Once the real estate market is open, the transaction will rise. From the perspective of loans, the recent housing loan policy is relatively loose, the purchase cost is significantly reduced, and the signing is also accelerated.

Restorative recovery

The average price of new houses in Shanghais Qiantan before last year was 85000 yuan / square meter, while the average price of Dongfang Huili sold out on the day of opening in May this year was 92000 yuan / square meter, and the average price of the famous Sanxiang impression residences in Qiantan just started to be recognized has reached 121800 yuan / square meter. A total of 30 new homes opened in April, 28 of them concentrated in the second half of the month, according to Clary. The same was true in May, when data at the end of the month showed 21 new trades opening.

In fact, the purchase demand of consumers is also different. In April and may, the exchange is the main form. In June, there are many transactions just needed to enter the car market. Most of the products launched in April are high-end ones, such as Dongfang Huili, Zhonghai huideli, Biyun zundi, Jingan West District, Binjiang triumphal arch, etc., with an average recognition rate of more than 100%, and even several projects with a recognition rate of nearly 200%.

The property market reflects liquidity. On June 18, the peoples Bank of China launched the reverse repurchase operation of 120 billion yuan in the form of interest rate bidding. The industry is interpreted as the policy continues to maintain targeted easing. According to Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst of Tongce Research Institute, and others, under the general direction of no speculation in housing, it is expected that the door of real estate regulation is unlikely to be opened. The key to buying or not is to see how big the two windows of credit + talents are. The global credit is loose, and the recognition standard of talents will be lower and lower. These two policies are expected to be the mainstream policies of the market in 2020.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real estate, believes that the hot real estate market xiaoyangchun will continue for several months. If the five-year LPR remains unchanged, the trading volume will significantly fall back to normal in July August.

But Yang Yulei, an analyst at Shanghai chain house, thinks that the market is in a state of repair at present, and will return to normal after the market adjustment. According to the data of Yiju Research Institute, 3905 first-hand houses were sold in Shanghai from June 1 to 18. This is a little far from the scale of more than 9000 sets in May.

Lu Wenxi, an analyst at Zhongyuan market in Shanghai, also pointed out that since June, new housing transactions have reached about 350000 square meters, with an estimated 700000 square meters in the whole June, which will be less than the volume of more than 1 million square meters in May. About 25000 second-hand housing units, down slightly from May.

Supply fault leads to demand fault. In May, Qingpu, Songjiang, Nanhui and other areas became the main transaction areas, most of which were houses with a total price of 4-5 million yuan, and the supply of first-hand houses in Shanghai in the second half of the year was mainly concentrated outside the outer ring road.

It is worth mentioning that there are also some real estate projects in the center of Shanghai with ultra-low subscription rate recently. According to people familiar with the matter, the initial subscription rate of a project in central is only 10%, and the heat of the real estate market in the second half of the year is full of variables.

The first-hand house is in short supply

How big is the gap of new housing in Shanghai?

More than 50000 first-hand houses, if calculated according to the speed of transaction in April and may, Shanghais first-hand houses can only support 8.2 months; in the past year (from May last year to May this year, excluding February and March affected by the epidemic), the average monthly removal rate of 6000 sets is only enough to support 9.6 months. Shanghais first-hand housing market is in short supply.

According to data from Central Plains of Shanghai, the supply of new commercial housing in Shanghai exceeded 900000 square meters in April, but fell to 600000 square meters in May, while the transaction area jumped from 600000 square meters to more than 1 million square meters.

The above insiders pointed out that in the near future, the real estate enterprises actively take the land also have the meaning of responding to the supply gap. Take Jindi as an example. In recent years, land acquisition has been frequent. Although Suzhou plot has not been successful, it has successively arranged in Nanjing and Shanghai. In June, Jindi won 4 plots of land in Jiangbei new district of Nanjing with a total area of 138900 square meters at a price of 2.5 billion yuan, and 2.902 billion yuan received a homestead in Qingpu, Shanghai.

Industry insiders pointed out that the companys revenue scale in East China fell in 2019, accounting for 10.68% of the groups revenue due to the demand for land to fill the shortage. The official explanation said that the settlement area of real estate projects in the region decreased.

According to the monitoring data of China Academy of technology, 11 pieces of land were sold in Shanghai from June 1 to 18, with the land transfer fee of about 8.72 billion yuan. From January to May this year, the land transfer fees in Shanghai were about 104.752 billion yuan, with an average premium rate of 0.8%.

It can be seen from the active land acquisition of real estate enterprises that the trend of large-scale land supply is also obvious, especially in some second and third tier cities in Zhejiang, where the ratio of storage to sales has dropped below 10, such as Wenzhou, Hangzhou and Ningbo. In the near future, Jiaxing and Ningbo are in a hot situation. Statistics from Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center show that as of June 19, the national land market continued to heat up, especially in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Beijing and other cities with high prices. Last years auction in Beijing was still limited to auction houses, but this years land price has not been limited.

In recent two months, the trading situation of second-hand houses in Shanghai, coupled with the large amount of land, has led to a great increase in the confidence of most real estate enterprises in the market. The plan of land acquisition for investment in the whole year has not been adjusted due to the epidemic. Many other cities are also active in selling land, and the turnover of land market continues to rise. For the first time in the year, there are three 100 billion land selling cities in the 50 major cities of Central Plains real estate research, namely Beijing, Hangzhou and Shanghai. Among them, 148.2 billion are in Hangzhou, 114.3 billion in Beijing and 125.8 billion in Shanghai.

Since this year, land sales in 50 major cities in China have reached 2 trillion yuan, up 14% year on year. 33 cities sell more than 20 billion land. Over 10 billion cities in 52 cities have set new historical records.

According to Zhang Dawei, real estate enterprises began to take land actively, mainly for the purpose of pursuing market scale, especially for many enterprises with little land in recent years.