Survey of real estate market: Foshan real estate market is recovering, but the growth potential is insufficient

category:Finance
 Survey of real estate market: Foshan real estate market is recovering, but the growth potential is insufficient


Real estate market recovery

Since May, Foshan real estate market has gradually got rid of the influence of the previous epidemic situation and revived with full blood.

The enthusiasm of developers to buy land suddenly broke out, the local auction market was hot, and high premium plots were frequently seen.

Real estate enterprises have always been a war without gunpowder. Zhu Weide, director of Foshan Zhongyuan strategic research center, pointed out that the Linguang sector and the key areas created by the government, such as Foshan new city, Qiandeng lake, qicha and other sectors with high land value, will be the focus of many brand real estate enterprises.

The competition of the land auction in sanlongwan is extremely fierce. On May 28, after 26 rounds of bidding, CNOOC won Sanshan new town in the South China Sea with 4.625 billion yuan, excluding the floor price of 16269 yuan / m2 after construction, with a premium rate of 25%.

Statistics show that from April to may, four plots were sold in the region, three of which were in Foshans top 10 historical total price, with a total amount of 17.75 billion, accounting for more than 40% of the city.

According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, from January to may, the total transaction value of commercial and residential land in Foshan was 49.35 billion yuan, up 46% year on year, and the transaction area was 2.184 million square meters, up 17% year on year.

The reason behind this is that since March, Foshan City has generally cancelled the maximum land price limit for land transfer, and basically determined the winner by the high price.

The removal of the maximum land price is actually a gesture to encourage everyone to actively take the land, and also to give more confidence to the real estate enterprises from the supply side. Xiao Wenxiao, chief analyst of Kerui in Guangzhou.

At the same time of loosening the price limit of land, the supply side of land also continued to be large-scale. According to the data of Zhongyuan Real estate, the area of commercial and residential land supplied by Foshan in March, April and may this year was 1.169 million square meters, 791000 square meters and 534000 square meters respectively, up 563%, 95% and 121% year on year respectively. In the previous five months, the cumulative land supply was 2.828 million square meters, up 56% year on year.

In June, Foshan launched 11 plots with a total starting price of over 7.8 billion yuan. It is expected that the local auction market will continue to be active.

Foshan Zhongyuan Strategic Research Center pointed out that the mass release of high-quality plots attracted a number of real estate enterprises to seize, and the transaction end was particularly hot. Driven by the high premium high-quality plot transaction, plus no price limit, the floor price gradually increased. The average floor price in Foshan rose significantly in the previous five months, up 29% year-on-year.

While the land market is warming up, the real estate market is also warming up. Affected by the epidemic, xiaoyangchun lags behind, and the backlog of purchase demand continues to release. With the good news that the threshold of purchase of Foshan talents was relaxed to secondary school education in March and the expansion of the consumption group in the real estate market, the market confidence recovered significantly, the developers increased their efforts to push goods, and the volume of new house transactions reached a small peak in May.

Kerui data shows that in May, there were 50 sets of new products launched in Foshan, with a sales volume of 5836 sets, such as yicuizundi, Hengda yulanting, Shangkun hanlinhu No. 1, Oupu Huacheng and other hot-selling projects, which went beyond 70%. After breaking 10000 sets in April, new house transactions in may also climbed to the top of 10000, with 10925 sets signed online, and the volume of transactions rebounded in March in a row.

In order to sprint the semi-annual performance, real estate enterprises are also more active in pushing goods. In May alone, 50 sets of new products were pushed, with sales volume of 5836 sets and the rate of some popular real estate deregulation reached 70%.

Insufficient growth potential

Compared with the rising price of new housing, the second-hand housing market is cold and difficult to digest the stock. Many owners are unable to change hands with the active price reduction of housing resources, and the second-hand housing market is in a dilemma of both quantity and price reduction.

In the popular areas of Foshan, such as Qiandeng lake and Yayi, the transaction and price of second-hand houses are in a downturn. At the end of last year, the listing price of several projects in Qiandeng Lake fell to within 30000 yuan.

In the Asian arts sector, although the price of second-hand houses did not fall significantly, it was only maintained at the level of 2017, or slightly higher than 2017, less than 10%.

Foshan housing network data shows that in recent years, Foshan second-hand housing transactions show a significant downward trend. From 87987 highs in 2017, diving all the way to 53619 in 2019, almost back to 2015.

However, the policy dividend stopped in 2017. Foshan stopped the policy of house purchase, and began to gradually implement the integral settlement. In addition, in 2019, the price limit of new houses was opened, and the threshold for talents to buy houses was reduced. A large number of buyers from the second-hand housing market were diverted to the new housing market.

According to the data of anjuke, in May 2020, the price of second-hand houses in Foshan was 12896 yuan / m2. In December 2017, the house price was 10229 yuan / square meter. In three years, the price of second-hand houses in Foshan increased by more than 2000 yuan, with obvious fatigue.

Yan Yuejin, a researcher at Yiju Research Institute, said that although Guangfo is in the same city has allowed Foshan to undertake a large number of housing spillovers in Guangzhou, in the end, it is the supply and demand relationship that determines the trend of housing prices. The overall supply of new houses in Foshan is large, which erodes the space of second-hand houses.

Because the second-hand housing transaction cycle is long and the procedures are complex, coupled with the factors such as short time of property rights and older house type, the people who need to buy houses prefer new houses.

In addition, Foshan, a city with a population of more than 8 million, mainly buys houses for self residence, and the demand for investment and speculation is not as much as Shenzhen.

In addition, the housing price differentiation in Foshan is obvious, and the Chancheng, Shunde and Nanhai in Linguang plate are still in the rising channel, while the housing prices in Sanshui and Gaoming have fallen, which makes investors flinch.

Overall, housing growth in Foshan is weak, and there is little room for house prices to continue to rise.

Even in the new housing market, Foshan real estate market is not generally hot, but showing a differentiation trend.

For example, Qiandeng lake, located in the South China Sea, is the most eye-catching protagonist of Foshans real estate market in recent years. It is not only the financial center of Foshan, but also the direct passage of Guangzhou Foshan Metro. The price of the new part of the market has exceeded 50000 / m2. However, the prices of Sanshui and Gaoming new market in the non restricted purchase area have declined.