The liquidity risk of second-hand houses has lurked in the first and second tier cities due to local overheating

category:Finance
 The liquidity risk of second-hand houses has lurked in the first and second tier cities due to local overheating


But investment in new housing, after all, in the second-hand housing market cash. In most cities, new houses are hot, but second-hand houses are very weak. While the listing volume soared, the liquidity was very poor, and there was no market.

It is not established at all times. In the future, under the control direction of real estate is not fried, it may be difficult for a second-hand house to have the profit space in the past.

First tier and second tier new clusters

In addition to Shenzhen, Shanghai is the hottest city this year.

According to incomplete statistics, there are at least seven daily CDs in Shanghai from April to may, of which Dongfang Huili, located in the foreshore, is the hottest. The total number of people subscribed for 411 Suites reached 2284, with a subscription rate of 5 times. This is also the most subscribed real estate in Shanghai so far this year.

The real estate market of first tier cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai is the first to recover, and the new first tier cities are not willing to show weakness.

As the first ten thousand people shake in Nanjing this year, the riverside city, which opened at the end of last year, will go to the city. On June 1, this year, 223 houses will be added, with a total of 11890 groups participating in the shaking, with a winning rate of only 1.8%. In addition to talent housing, the winning rate of general housing is as low as 1.43%.

The low single digit winning rate is also phenomenal in the history of Nanjing real estate market. It is reported that the sales reached 830 million yuan on that day, and the number of the platoon was only more than 300, and all of them were sold out on the opening day.

At the beginning of June, Hangzhou Yuanyang Xixi mansion launched 959 sets of houses, attracting 50000 people to register and sign their names, setting a record. The expectation of making money under the price limit attracted many buyers to enter the market, and everyone wanted to make a big profit.

As a new first tier city, Hangzhous real estate market is becoming increasingly hot, even after the epidemic just passed, it is still hot. Hangzhou rose 0.7% month on month (MOM) and 5.1% year on year (YoY) in the sales price index of new commercial housing of the National Bureau of statistics in May.

In fact, fighting for new is just because the house price is hanging upside down. The average price of the 959 houses in Xixi mansion is only 28000 / m2, and the average price of the surrounding projects is 35000-40000 / m2. The dividend of the limited price is in front of us. In terms of 90 square meters, you can earn at least 600000 yuan. One investor said.

Under the new upsurge, transactions in some cities have picked up. According to Kerui data, in May, the area of new housing transactions in 28 key cities increased by 19% on a month on month basis, narrowing to 2% on a year-on-year basis, among which the area of new housing transactions in first tier cities increased by 30% on a month on month basis, especially in Shanghai, where the volume of transactions reached a new high of 1.09 million square meters in a single month, with an increase of more than 60% on a month on month basis.

From February to the end of May this year, the city of Hangzhou launched 203 new projects, while the number of swing buildings reached 95, with a swing rate of about 46.7%. Even in the hot Yuhang District, there were 21 swings.

Hangzhou developers told reporters that in addition to some new dishes because of the attractive price difference, most of the other new dishes are not very good.

At the same time, the meaning of fighting for new is finally settled in the second-hand housing market. The new house can be sold no matter how cost-effective it is. But is the second-hand housing market really as good as expected?

According to the website of second-hand house delivery, the price of Rongxin lantiancheng is about 2-22400 yuan per square meter, and there is not so much arbitrage space.

In fact, the listing volume of second-hand houses in Hangzhou has reached an amazing 116000 sets, far exceeding the sales volume of Hangzhou in one year.

In Guangzhou, an intermediary said that the second-hand houses in Guangzhou are very embarrassing. Most of the sellers are unwilling to reduce their prices, but the buyers feel that they will drop again. They have been stuck for a long time. And there are a lot of houses that cant help falling prices.

Many owners told the reporter that the house price in their residential area had dropped about 5000 yuan per year.

On the official website of Lianjia, the number of second-hand houses listed in Guangzhou now exceeds 70000, just over 50000 in June last year, up 20000 a year. Sufficient housing supply, so that buyers have more bargaining space.

According to data from Guangzhou Zhongyuan Research Institute, in the second week of June, there were 1089 second-hand residential transactions in Guangzhou, down 3.2% month on month. Compared with the previous activity, the volume of transactions has declined for two consecutive weeks.

In May, in Beijing, Qingdao, Chengdu, Suzhou, Xiamen and other cities, the cumulative decline of second-hand housing has been varying degrees compared with the same period of last year. The year-on-year decline of Chengdu and Suzhou is more than 50%, and the month on month decline is 12% - 13%.

58 Research Institute analyst Zhang Bo said that in the new housing second-hand housing market, it can be understood that there are plate differences in the trading of first-hand and second-hand housing. Often the first-hand housing market is better, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing is not bad, but most of the new housing transactions are concentrated in the area, but the transaction volume of second-hand housing will be poor; while the second-hand housing transactions are concentrated in the area where the first-hand housing does not have centralized supply.

Zhang Bo believes that in the future, under the background of not speculation in housing, the long-term expectation of house prices will remain stable in the future. The price difference of first-hand and second-hand houses will be gradually weakened by the market, so it is difficult to have so-called great profit space, and the real estate market will maintain healthy and stable development.

(author: Zhang Xiaoling, editor: Li Qingyu)