The false fire of the real estate market under the collective innovation in Shenzhen: speculators face the risk of precipice

category:Finance
 The false fire of the real estate market under the collective innovation in Shenzhen: speculators face the risk of precipice


Behind the innovation was the cancellation of the luxury tax in November last year, and the real estate market in Shenzhen saw a wave of obvious rise, especially in Baozhong, Guangming and other regions. The price of several new second-hand houses hung upside down, making people feel that the opportunity to make fast money is coming.

It depends on the circulation and price of the second-hand market. In fact, the second-hand housing in Shenzhen began to have a trend of joint speculation and high delivery last year, in line with the prosperity of the new housing market.

Relevant departments have paid attention to this phenomenon, suggesting that the listing price is high and there is a risk of speculation. They have also punished some intermediaries and criticized some communities.

Can you make money if you make a new one? Will Shenzhens house price never fall? No one can guarantee. People used to think that Beijings house prices were strong, but in fact, Beijings house prices have been down for three years; before last years luxury tax, most of Shenzhens regions have been down for two or three years, even now, not all of Shenzhens locations are up.

As the relevant departments in Shenzhen tighten the supervision of second-hand houses, increase the supply of land and new houses, the contradiction between supply and demand is expected to ease, and the three-year sales have lengthened the investment cycle, etc., the space for making money in innovation is shrinking, while the risk is increasing.

When new is in progress

Wu Lin has not felt the excitement of Shenzhens real estate market for several years. The last time it seemed was in 2015.

The new Jinan Haina mansion is the second phase of the new Jinan No.1 mansion. According to the chain family information, the transaction price of the second-hand house of the No.1 mansion was 110000 at the end of last year, and now it has a listing price of more than 130000. Compared with the new house price of more than 80000 in Haina mansion, the upside down space is very obvious, you have to earn if you buy it, you have to believe it is in Shenzhen, Wu Lin said.

Now, its not the exclusive welfare of Shenzhen people for a long time. No matter which real estate, there are outsiders fighting for new.

Wu Lin regrets that he also came to this market last year. He asked about the price but didnt buy it, because he didnt expect that there would be another wave of price rise in Shenzhen this year at such a high price. This time, he wanted to try his luck if the house type could barely accept it.

On the other hand, she was glad that she had worked on the Internet in Shenzhen in the past few years, earned some money and joined in innovation. At that time, she bought the Haofang Tianji in Nanshan District, and now the house price has been rising. Now she doesnt work. She lives in Shenzhen and Jiangsu half the time.

Different from the previous two years, because of the rise in house prices since the end of last year, many of Shenzhens just need plates also have operation space this year. In addition to Haina mansion, Rongyu Huafu, the first project of Financial Street entering Shenzhen last week, also made a lot of eyeballs. The buyers who are going to apply for the purchase got in a long line the night before. Finally, they were stopped by the government and came back online.

In addition to rongyuhuafu, Shajing coastal city, runsi and other online red disk are the new targets that investors are optimistic about this year.

Shenzhens real estate market has a long history of innovation. The first Internet red to be hit is the first phase of China Resources City Runfu, which opened in 2014. At that time, the average price was 40000 / m2. Two years later, the average price of the second phase of China Resources City was 75000 / m2. In 2018, the average price of the third phase of China Resources City was 85000 / m2. The chain home platform showed that the second-hand house listing price in May had reached 160000 +, and a set of three rooms and two halls sold at the end of last year also reached 140000 + per level. The effect of making new money should be amazing.

From 2018, luxury houses will also be renovated. Shenzhens local tyrants will squat on the ground in twos and threes, waiting for the signature of merchants double seals. The website calls it 50 million squats.

In 2019, the 80 million apartments of Cr Rui mansion in Shenzhen Bay will be second lit in a few minutes. Shenye Zhongcheng, which also needs 5 million subscription money, was robbed. This year, the seal of China Merchants Bay was opened three times and sold out three times, and the epidemic did not stop the rich from queuing up to rob houses with masks.

The temptation of price hanging upside down

From the growth history of China Resources City, we can see the reason why Shenzhen people are competing for innovation: the effect of making money.

In November last year, Shenzhen cancelled the tax on luxury houses, which means hundreds of thousands or even millions of taxes have been reduced. This has promoted a new wave of upsurge in second-hand houses, which has not been put out yet. According to the National Bureau of statistics, the price of second-hand houses in Shenzhen rose 1.6% in May from last month, ranking second in the country.

A buyer who is going to buy runsi told reporters that she has always had plenty of money on hand, and that buying a house is usually a one-off payment. In 2016, she had money and places. She had a set of houses in the third phase of the peninsula city-state in front of her, but at that time, she felt that the investment in real estate was not reliable, so she didnt buy them. As a result, the value of the houses bought by her classmates has risen by 12 million. She was envious, so now she sold a house to make room and prepare for the new run four.

And the factors that support the long-term rise of housing prices in Shenzhen are land prices. At the end of 2015, Taihe took a floor price of nearly 80000 yuan per square meter in Jiangang mountain; last year, the price of several pieces of land in Guangming was 40000 yuan per square meter in Shenzhen epic level land auction.

Different from other first tier cities, Shenzhens purchase qualification is the easiest to obtain. For foreigners like Wu Lin, the qualification threshold for buying a house in Shenzhen is not high. Undergraduates and above can settle down directly and buy it immediately or in the name of the company.

Zhongyuan, shell and other intermediary agencies said that in the past two years, more and more foreigners are interested in the development prospects of Shenzhen. Some people in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and other places moved their hukou to Shenzhen to buy a house.

Some Shenzhen intermediaries reported that in order to raise new funds, many people use leverage to leverage assets. Photo by Gan Jun

Secret real estate chain

In fact, in Shenzhen, a complete and mature real estate chain has been formed, with a series of institutions operating from qualification, loan, purchase and sale.

The realization after the renovation is the key, that is, the price of the second-hand housing market. In this respect, some second-hand housing owners in some districts in Shenzhen have jointly set up houses to speculate on house prices.

At the end of last year, the owners of second-hand houses in Shenzhen continued to work as demons and raise their prices. Finally, they were named by the housing and Construction Bureau, which is a shocking drama. In November last year, the screenshot of the owner group of Hengyu Bincheng spread wildly to Shenzhen real estate circle, D-type owners listen to the command and put up a unified price tag to 26 million, which is lower than this number, not for sale, 27 million next week, thank you..

The collective price increase in Hengyu Bincheng is like a spark. From Qianhai and Baozhong to Bihai and Longhua, a dozen community owners began to plan price increase alliance.

Soon, the regulatory attention to this matter, Hengyu Bincheng, fenghuangli community related owners were interviewed, the second-hand housing network sign was also suspended.

According to the data of shell nets second-hand housing platform at that time, it wasnt just China resources city that suddenly saw the listing price soar. In Houhai, Shekou, Qianhai and Shenzhen Bay areas of Nanshan District, the owners rushed to raise the listing price. The price of sunshine beach rose by about 12%, Sanxiang sea rose by about 15%, and hengyubincheng rose by about 15%.

The Central District of Baoan, adjacent to Nanshan, also followed suit. The price of many real estate was raised by holding a group. Before the Spring Festival, a lot of properties were still 70000-80000 / m2, with 100000 / m2 being hung. The buildings of one square city, triumphal city and happy coast all increased significantly.

The association also pointed out that behind the hot speculation of some real estate, there is an institutional team interest chain composed of several stakeholders, such as some investment companies, self media and real estate agents, which is boosting the round of false fire in the real estate market. They are worried that such a high delivery will attract Internet access and create risks.

Li Yujia, chief researcher of Guangdong housing policy research center, said that the recent deep housing fraud incident also shows that real estate investment has been deeply rooted in peoples hearts and bones, and there are countless investors under the big V chain in Shenzhen.

Some Shenzhen intermediaries reported that in order to raise new funds, many people use leverage to leverage their assets and hope to cash out at a high level after the transfer, making a full pot of money.

According to the data of Shenzhen Zhongyuan Research Center, the leverage ratio of Shenzhen real estate market has been at a high level, and in recent years, it has continued to lead the country. In 2019, the leverage ratio of Shenzhens household sector increased to 83.2%, leading Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou, 20% higher than the national average (60.4%). In the first quarter of 2020, the medium and long-term loans of the household sector in Shenzhen increased by 54.493 billion yuan, returning to the peak in 2017 and 2018.

Like sister crab, the real estate speculators are even brave enough to take out all their savings, overdraft all their credit cards, and use leverage to the extreme to speculate, trying to be big and small.

Its not a safe bet

Since March this year, Shenzhen Zhongyuan has estimated that the proportion of investment demand into the market is about 40%.

But with so many investors, they are not as confident about the future as they were two years ago. For example, they have expected differentiation for the most popular online red disk run four.

According to the speculation of many real estate agents in Shenzhen, the price of runsi will be more than 100000 / m2, compared with the transaction price of 130000-140000 second-hand houses, there is still a certain arbitrage space, but the space for subsequent increase is full of uncertainty.

From the perspective of time cost, it will take about 2 years for runsjiao building. After that, it will take 5 years to sell the building with three-year sales period. The time cost and capital cost of holding are higher than before.

At present, the price of new houses in the hot area is more than 50000 yuan per square meter. With all kinds of costs, it will be profitable only when they are sold to about 700000 yuan. And for this increase will come, when to arrive, many buyers actually have no bottom in mind.

According to Li Yujia, the problems reflected in the deep house fraud, such as fake divorce and marriage, fake borrowing places, business loans entering the real estate market, rising speculation under the influence of intermediary, big V and self media, all need to be innovated in regulatory means, policies need to be refined, responsibilities need to be put in place, penalties for those who commit crimes should not be ignored, and cooperation between financial and housing construction departments should be carried out You cant leave the pot if you have any substantive action.

Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of E-House Research Institute, also said that Shenzhen should guard against new risks, deal with malicious bid up house prices and illegal collection of tea fee and other acts, which will help to curb the false fire in the real estate market.

The risks at the policy level are also increasing. The state has repeatedly stressed that housing is not speculation. In recent two months, the Shenzhen government has also frequently upgraded its supervision on second-hand housing, seriously dealt with the bad behaviors of bid up house prices, false listing prices, and strictly checked the illegal operation of leverage, such as operating loans.

In addition to stricter supervision, the Shenzhen government will significantly increase the supply of residential land and commercial housing this year. If the contradiction between the supply and demand of housing in Shenzhen can be effectively solved, investors who are engaged in innovation will also face greater risks.