The rise of risk-free interest rate is not good news for stock valuation.
First look at the following picture:
According to wind data, on June 4, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds rose to 2.8301%, up 0.3477 percentage points (34.77 basis points) from the low point on April 8, and higher than 2.8231% on February 3, the first trading day after the Spring Festival holiday, which has fully recalled the downward space of interest rates after the Spring Festival.
Treasury bond yield is regarded as risk-free interest rate and the most important reference index of market interest rate.
Heres a concept - risk-free interest rate.
In short, the interest rate obtained by investing funds in a risk-free investment object is called risk-free interest rate.
Money always flows to places with higher yields. Therefore, the risk-free interest rate has always played a core role in the capital market. Its change may mean that other asset prices may adjust accordingly.
What do you mean?
Knock on the blackboard: in the process of rising risk-free interest rate, if the risk premium required by investors remains unchanged, it is necessary to choose between reducing the valuation or making higher requirements for profit growth.
Lets see if this conclusion can be verified in the historical trend of a shares.
u2460 From January 8, 2009 (2.6711%) to November 9, 2009 (3.7313%);
u2461 From August 25, 2010 (3.2154%) to August 3, 2011 (4.1201%);
u2462 From May 23, 2013 (3.413%) to February 19, 2014 (4.5535%);
u2463 October 21, 2016 (2.6451%) to November 23, 2017 (3.9851%).
For the second time, at the end of 2010, in order to prevent the overheating of the economy caused by the four trillion investment, the monetary policy was significantly changed, and the reserve ratio of reserve funds was continuously increased, leading to the upward interest rate.
The third time is the economic deleveraging in 2013, when the storm of bond market supervision came, leading to the rapid rise of interest rates, which is what we often call the debt disaster in 2013.
Similar to the current economy is the first and fourth upward interest rates. The policy adjustment has been in place and is in the observation period. The upward interest rate is determined by the demand for market funds. Therefore, we mainly look at the performance of the stock market during the upward interest rates in 2009 and 2017.
From January 8, 2009 to November 9, 2009, the market was generally up, and the style differentiation was not particularly prominent, but the value index was still obviously dominant.
Wind data shows that during the period, the low price to net ratio index rose 81.21%, while the high price to net ratio index rose 61.92%, with a difference of nearly 20 percentage points.
The best performing sectors during the period were automobiles (183%), non ferrous metals (159%), mining (132%), household appliances (120%) and real estate (118%).
In terms of market and core index performance, China Securities 500 led the way with a rise of 98.4%, followed by China Securities 200 with a rise of 98.24%, and small and medium-sized board with a rise of 72.21%, with relatively superior value style performance.
From October 21, 2016 to November 23, 2017, the style differentiation was very obvious, the value style index was obviously dominant, while the growth index declined significantly.
The best performing sectors during the period were food and beverage (49%), home appliances (44%), steel (29%), non bank finance (25%) and banks (17%).
In terms of market and core index performance, Shanghai 50 led the way with a rise of 31.24%, followed by Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 with a rise of 23.28%; gem index fell 17.71%.
In terms of fund style index performance, during the period, the value style rose 14.17%, the best performance, growth style index fell 1.29%, lagging behind the value index by 15.46%. From the above analysis, due to the basic improvement of the economy leading to the upward interest rate, the overall benefit to the stock market, the period value style performance is significantly better than the growth style, in line with the theoretical expectations.
Now the problem is coming again. If the economic recovery continues to strengthen and the real economy has a strong demand for funds, it will continue to push the price of funds, and the interest rate will continue to rise. At this time, the asset allocation should change from the balanced allocation we emphasized earlier to the value oriented style; while the bond market will continue to be bearish. From the last four interest rate upward cycles, the interest rate will almost rise 1% each time Point.
Therefore, wind believes that how to evaluate the current economic recovery momentum has become a key to predict the market trend.
The economic data in May will be released one after another from next week. Wind will analyze the data in a timely and comprehensive manner and make a detailed assessment of the current economic recovery momentum. Next, lets look back at the market this week.
The market is generally up, and the net inflow of capital from the north is 24 billion yuan in the same week
On Friday, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rose slightly. By the end of the day, Shanghai stock index rose 0.40% to close at 2930.80; Shenzhen stock index rose 0.37% to close at 11180.60; growth enterprise market index rose 0.70% to close at 2166.38, with wandezhuan As total turnover of more than 620 billion yuan.
This week, the A-share market rose in an all-round way, with all sectors in the red, among which information technology rose 5.73%, ranking first; optional consumption rose 4.33%, followed closely.
Net purchase of information technology was the highest. This week, northbound funds accumulated net purchases of more than 20 billion yuan. According to wind statistics, from the perspective of the industry distribution of capital holding changes in Beishang, the net purchase amount of information technology sector is more than 7 billion yuan, ranking first; in addition, the purchase amount of finance, industry and other sectors is also
More; only daily consumption sector slightly reduced.
(compared with the shares held on June 4 and May 30, the changed market value = the changed quantity x the closing price on June 5, the same below)
Large increase in positions of technology stocks
Wind found that Beishang capital increased its holdings in technology stocks while also adjusting positions in some consumer and technology stocks. According to wind statistics, 14 companies have reduced their positions by more than 200 million yuan, of which Wuliangye has the largest net sales amount, over 900 million yuan; in addition, Gree Electric, new hope and Aier ophthalmology have all sold more than 300 million yuan. From the perspective of the companies with higher net sales amount, the stocks with higher recent growth and the stocks with higher valuation become the selling targets.
The following are the companies with a net sales amount of more than 200 million yuan:
From the perspective of industry capital flow this week, the main capital outflow is more than 40 billion yuan. Among them, in addition to information technology and financial sectors, the net flow in and out of the sector increased significantly, among which, the net flow out of materials, daily consumption, industry and optional consumption sectors exceeded 10 billion yuan.
It is worth mentioning that, while the funds in Beishang were purchased by a large margin, the two financing funds also made simultaneous efforts. According to wind data, as of Thursday (June 4), the balance of A-share margin trading was 1097.819 billion yuan, an increase of 1.961 billion yuan compared with 1095.858 billion yuan on the previous trading day, and the net inflow for four consecutive days this week totaled about 20 billion yuan, a new high in nearly three months.
At the same time, the financing balance of some companies rose sharply. According to wind statistics, in the first four days of this week, the financing balance of 42 stocks increased by more than 10%, the latest financing balance exceeded 200 million yuan, and accounted for more than 2% of the current market value. Specifically, the financing balance of Gree real estate increased by nearly 300%, ranking first; in addition, the financing balance of Gree real estate, FeiKai materials, Anjie technology, lingyizhizao, JAC automobile, Jingyuntong, Zhejiang Yongqiang, Gehua cable and other companies increased by more than 20%. Extended reading America allows two flights from mainland China to and from the United States every week, which is very popular in the real estate market innovation aspect B: just need to worry about running with you will you handle it? 5g package price is loose! Minimum $89 per month source: Wind Information Editor: Yang Qian_ NF4425