Ningde times disclosed in an interview with the first financial reporter yesterday that its power battery capacity last year was 53gwh, while the capacity of projects under Construction announced so far is 22gwh. The specific capacity formation this year depends on the progress of self construction of the project.
Before that, BYD and Ningde era have been competing secretly in battery layout, but because BYDs battery is basically self-sufficient, the well water does not violate the river water with Ningde era. However, once BYD pries the outside market, it is difficult to avoid a fierce battle between the two. At present, the two battery head enterprises have started the first round of competition.
Blade battery is the key battle
BYD, which is hard to beat and starts from batteries, has suffered from a certain degree of loss due to its self-sufficient vertical supply mode.
According to the statistics of the research department of the power battery application branch, the total installed capacity of Chinas power battery in 2019 is about 62.2gwh, an increase of 9.3% year-on-year, in which the ternary battery accounts for 65.2% of the total installed capacity, an increase of 22.5% year-on-year; the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 20.2gwh, a decrease of 9.0% year-on-year. Specifically, in Ningde era, the installed capacity of 31.71 GWH power battery ranked first, while BYD and GuoXuan high tech ranked second and third with 10.76 GWH and 3.31 GWH respectively.
Since this year, the market share of ternary lithium has continued to expand. According to the latest data from evtank, the installed capacity of domestic ternary lithium battery rose to 72.87% from January to April this year, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery further fell to 22.93%.
BYD believes that, although the lithium iron phosphate battery has incomparable advantages in terms of safety, due to its energy density less than that of lithium ternary, many passenger car enterprises have fallen into the irrational pursuit of power battery energy density in the past few years, and lithium iron phosphate battery has failed in the last wave of technical competition with lithium ternary battery. Due to the excessive pursuit of energy density before, the power battery industry is in urgent need of correction.
At 500 u2103, the structure of lithium iron phosphate material is very stable, but the ternary lithium material will decompose at about 200 u2103, and the chemical reaction is more intense, which will release oxygen molecules, and it is easier to lead to heating out of control. Sun Huajun, deputy general manager of Fudi battery company, said.
In recent days, BYD and Ningde era have been tit for tat on battery acupuncture test, and have launched technical dispute between ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery. But Ningde times insists that the ternary lithium battery can also pass the acupuncture test, and the safety of power battery is changing from single safety to system safety.
However, Ningde era, which holds many orders from automobile enterprises, is far ahead of BYD in both the lithium iron phosphate Market and the lithium ternary market. According to the statistics of EVTank, the market share of lithium iron phosphate power battery in Ningde era in China is 66.6%, while that of BYD is only 10.8%.
Affected by the new energy market downturn, epidemic situation and Teslas attack, the cumulative sales volume of BYD new energy vehicles in the first four months of this year was only 35187, down 63.79% year-on-year, and dragged down the installed battery capacity. BYD, who was attacked by Tesla and Ningde, wants to break the situation with blade battery. Since July 2018, BYD and Changan automobile have joined hands to open the door of power battery, and then entered Toyotas battery purchasing list last year. But so far, BYDs power battery has basically provided by itself, and a competitive battery product is urgently needed to open up the situation.
Through a series of structural innovation, the blade battery has realized the super strength of the battery. At the same time, the safety performance of the battery pack has been greatly improved, and the volume utilization rate has also been increased by more than 50%. Because the blade battery can greatly reduce the structural parts added by the ternary lithium battery due to the insufficient safety and strength of the battery, thus reducing the weight of the vehicle, our single energy density is not higher than that of the ternary lithium battery, but it can achieve the same endurance capacity of the mainstream ternary lithium battery. Sun Huajun said.
Li Yunfei said in an interview with the first financial reporter that at present, the proportion of BYD ternary lithium is still higher than that of lithium iron phosphate. The majority of commercial vehicles use lithium iron phosphate, while the majority of passenger vehicles use lithium ternary, but the appearance of blade batteries may reverse this situation. The first model with blade batteries, BYD hanev, has reached 605 kilometers under comprehensive conditions, which The similar endurance mileage can basically solve the consumers anxiety about the endurance mileage. The blade battery, which is superior in safety, is attractive to domestic and foreign vehicle enterprises, and may change the route of power battery.
However, in an interview with the first financial reporter, Wu Hui believed that the power battery demand will reach 113.7gwh in 2020, of which the battery for passenger vehicles is expected to reach 60gwh (mainly lithium ternary), and the mainstream position of the three-way battery will not be shaken this year. Even after the acquisition of GuoXuan high tech by Volkswagen, GuoXuan high tech also began to change its way to develop Sanyuan. Only BYD is left on the road of lithium iron phosphate. It is difficult for BYD to reverse the trend of the whole industry.
The design of the blade battery must have some advantages. I think it has a future. But if the blade battery made of ternary materials is better, it is estimated that BYD is also developing the blade battery made of ternary materials. Wu said.
Battery plate independence is imperative
In addition to the difficulty of technical route, BYD is also facing a greater problem of balancing the relationship between self supply battery and export battery to drive the industry change with blades.
Last year, the installed capacity of BYDs battery was only about 10gwh, but according to the current capacity planning, it is obviously excessive. According to Li Yunfei, BYDs battery capacity is not only used to supply cars, but also used for electronic products and cloud tracks, etc. to rapidly expand the capacity, but more consideration will be given to not only meeting their own needs, but also meeting the needs of external vehicle enterprises. Although the current situation of new energy vehicles is at a low ebb affected by epidemic situation and other factors, its development space is still promising. Multinational and domestic automobile enterprises have accelerated the pace of production and marketing of new energy vehicles, which will definitely replace a considerable part of fuel vehicles in the future, so the battery production should be arranged in advance.
In order to expand the export business of BYD, it is imperative for the battery business to be split and listed. Since this year, BYD has built the Fudi system, which is considered to prepare for the separation and listing of the battery sector. However, unlike semiconductors, which have launched the spin off process, there is no specific timetable for the spin off of BYDs battery sector. Li Yunfei responded that it depends on the scale of external sales of battery market and the situation of capital increase and share expansion. This content is the original of first finance and economics, and the copyright belongs to first finance and economics. Without the written authorization of first finance and economics, it shall not be used in any way, including reprint, excerpt, copy or establishment of image. First finance and economics reserves the right to investigate the legal liability of infringers. For authorization, please contact the first financial copyright department: 021-22002972 or 021-22002335; [email protected] u3002 Source: Guo Chenqi, editor in charge of the first financial daily_ NBJ9931
In order to expand the export business of BYD, it is imperative for the battery business to be split and listed. Since this year, BYD has built the Fudi system, which is considered to prepare for the separation and listing of the battery sector. However, unlike semiconductors, which have launched the spin off process, there is no specific timetable for the spin off of BYDs battery sector. Li Yunfei responded that it depends on the scale of external sales of battery market and the situation of capital increase and share expansion.