Buffett cut the wrong meat? The United States, A-share aviation sector rose together!

category:Finance
 Buffett cut the wrong meat? The United States, A-share aviation sector rose together!


Today, the A-share airport shipping sector strengthened, with Huaxia Airlines rising by more than 8%, followed by Spring Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Jixiang airlines and Air China.

The same is true for Hong Kong stocks. After the opening of this year, the growth of aviation stocks continued to expand, with China Southern Airlines up 8%, Air China up more than 6%, and China Eastern Airlines up more than 5%. A-share airport shipping sector strengthened, with China Airlines up 7%, China Eastern Airlines up 6%, Air China and China Southern Airlines up 4%.

Overnight US stocks rose more violently, with American Airlines up more than 41%, which may have given a shot of stimulant to A-share related stocks.

By the end of the morning, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Airlines and Southwest Airlines had rebounded 102.67%, 115.07%, 84.92% and 70.39% respectively from April lows.

A number of aviation stocks have doubled from the low point, and Buffett, who announced in early May that he had cleared his position in aviation stocks, may have lost a lot.

If the U.S. stock market is just an inducement, the latest move of CAAC is the substantial positive result of A-share aviation stocks soaring. It is reported that under the new deal, 20 airlines in 16 countries are expected to resume navigation.

According to the website of CAAC, in order to continue to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development under the new situation, recover part of international passenger flights in an orderly manner, and further meet the urgent needs of Chinese overseas students and overseas Chinese returning home, on June 4, the notice of CAAC on adjusting international passenger flights (hereinafter referred to as the notice) was issued, and since June 8 The current five ones measures for international passenger flights are adjusted.

After the adjustment of international passenger flights, 44 airlines in 23 countries are expected to increase flights by up to 44 a week, according to CAAC officials. It is expected that 20 airlines in 16 countries, including Algeria, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kenya, Rwanda, Madagascar, Morocco, Mexico, Switzerland, Brunei, Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, will resume their flights, with a maximum of 20 flights per week.

According to agency statistics, in 2019, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines respectively paid 2.33 billion yuan and 1.602 billion yuan of Civil Aviation Development Fund, Air China about 1.818 billion yuan, and Spring Airlines paid 269 million yuan of Civil Aviation Development Fund.

Whether it can last depends on these data

At present, the willingness of passengers to travel is at the same level, which will maintain the current passenger rate, but there will be no faster growth. A gradual recovery in prices will also reduce airline losses. He said.

Sun Wenjian, spokesman of the Ministry of transport, said at a regular press conference on May 29 that positive progress has been made in the resumption of work and production in the transport industry, with the main indicators continuing to pick up. Among them, the passenger volume of civil aviation recovered to 47.4% of the same period last year.

Mingxing and Sun Yan, analysts of Anxin transportation sector, think that with the positive results of domestic epidemic prevention and control, domestic air passenger flow is in the recovery channel, and the current valuation of aviation stocks is at the bottom of history, they can focus on Air China with high-quality routes (which will significantly benefit from the recovery of official travel); China Southern Airlines with high proportion of domestic lines and flexible performance; and location China Eastern Airlines, which has obvious advantages, pays attention to Spring Airlines and Jixiang airlines.

Extended reading:

Fund managers take a clear view of the aviation industry!

Although Buffett, the God of stocks, announced at the general meeting of shareholders on May 3 this year that he had cut all positions of the four major American Airlines, the overall performance of American Airlines has been impressive recently, and the ETF fund of American Airlines has rebounded 70% from the low point in March.

With the gradual recovery of domestic travel data, a number of institutions have looked at A-share aviation sector in recent years. More fund managers have taken a clear stand that the positive changes in the supply side will make Chinas aviation industry enter a longer boom cycle.

US airlines retaliatory gains

Stimulated by the good news, American Airlines shares jumped 41.5% to $16.74 yesterday.

Vasu Raja, senior vice president of airline network strategy, said the companys domestic flights in May were only 20% of the same period last year, compared with 25% in June. As an airline, we are consciously betting that demand will pick up, the executive said. At the same time, we are betting on a recovery.

In fact, under the expectation of returning to work, the U.S. aviation stock plate has already recovered steadily, which is the opposite of Warren Buffetts previous judgment.

On May 3, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway video conference, Buffett said he was not optimistic about airlines and aircraft manufacturers. We hold shares in four major American Airlines (American Airlines, Delta, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines), and we have sold all our positions at present.

Global jets (jets), the US aviation themed ETF, surged 11.58% last night and has bounced 70% since March 19 at $11.25.

The rebound of several American Airlines is even more amazing. According to statistics, by the end of this mornings U.S. stock market, among the four major U.S. airlines, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Airlines and southwest airlines have rebounded 102.67%, 115.07%, 84.92% and 70.39% respectively from April lows.

According to Dongfang wealth choice data, since this month, B shares of Haikong, Spring Airlines and Huaxia Airlines have all increased by more than 5%; Jixiang airlines and Air China have increased by 4.05% and 3.86% respectively.

Take Chunqiu airlines as an example. If we start from a low of 28.88 yuan on March 19, as of June 5, the rise of Chunqiu airlines in more than two months has reached 35%.

A number of institutions also expressed their views on long aviation stocks.

Tianfeng Securities believes that the demand for domestic routes will continue to pick up, and the development of overseas epidemics has also shown positive signals at present, but it will take a long time for large-scale recovery of international passenger flow. At present, the first quarter report of each company has disclosed that with the control of the epidemic situation, the passenger flow of civil aviation is expected to recover significantly, the oil price is low and the cost is saved, the phased bad air has landed, and the aviation data has recovered.

Everbright Securities said that aviation demand began to recover gradually, and considering the delayed price reduction of domestic aviation oil, the cost pressure of airlines will be gradually eased. Although there are still large uncertainties in the overseas epidemic, the recovery of domestic business travel demand will significantly improve the profitability of the airline.

As for the reasons of favoring domestic aviation stocks, Tian Yu, manager of value optimization hybrid fund of China Thailand Kaiyang, gives three reasons:

First, the epidemic will not change the long-term habits of Chinese people to travel. The stage of Chinas aviation industry is totally different from that of the United States. The per capita travel in the United States is nearly three times, while the per capita travel in China is about 0.47 times. Therefore, the long-term growth trend of domestic aviation demand is still very certain. In fact, with the improvement of peoples lives and the increase of economic activity, the number of trips will increase significantly, that is, the stage of domestic aviation demand is fundamentally different from that of the United States; secondly, from the perspective of supply side, the pattern of domestic aviation industry is better than that of the United States. The market share of the three major domestic airlines has exceeded 70%, and the access mechanism of the aviation industry is becoming more strict in all links, thus slowing down the overall supply growth. At the same time, there are many megacities in China, which are more densely populated compared with European and American countries, which makes the airspace resources over the city more limited relative to the travel demand, and the sudden epidemic brings a clearing to the supply side. Thirdly, the current position of the aviation stocks is not the high point of the cycle, and the valuation is very cheap. I believe that with the gradual recovery of the epidemic, the accumulation of the supply side Polar change will make Chinas aviation industry enter a longer boom cycle. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of Shanghai Securities News_ NF4368

First, the epidemic will not change the long-term habits of Chinese people to travel. The stage of Chinas aviation industry is totally different from that of the United States. The per capita travel in the United States is nearly three times, while the per capita travel in China is about 0.47 times. Therefore, the long-term growth trend of domestic aviation demand is still very certain. In fact, with the improvement of peoples lives and the increase of economic activity, the number of trips will increase significantly, that is to say, the stage of domestic aviation demand is fundamentally different from that of the United States;

Second, from the supply side, the pattern of domestic aviation industry is better than that of the United States. The market share of the three major domestic airlines has exceeded 70%, and the access mechanism of the aviation industry is becoming more strict in all links, thus slowing down the overall supply growth. At the same time, there are many megacities in China, which are more densely populated compared with European and American countries, which makes the airspace resources over the city more limited compared with the travel demand, and the sudden outbreak brings a clearing to the supply side;

Third, the current position of aviation stocks is not the high point of the cycle, and the valuation is very cheap. I believe that with the gradual recovery of the epidemic, the positive change of the supply side will make Chinas aviation industry enter a longer boom cycle.