Buffett cut the wrong meat? The United States, A-share aviation sector rose together!

category:Finance
 Buffett cut the wrong meat? The United States, A-share aviation sector rose together!


The same is true for Hong Kong stocks. After the opening of this year, the growth of aviation stocks continued to expand, with China Southern Airlines up 8%, Air China up more than 6%, and China Eastern Airlines up more than 5%. A-share airport shipping sector strengthened, with China Airlines up 7%, China Eastern Airlines up 6%, Air China and China Southern Airlines up 4%.

By the end of the morning, American Airlines, United Airlines, Delta Airlines and Southwest Airlines had rebounded 102.67%, 115.07%, 84.92% and 70.39% respectively from April lows.

A number of aviation stocks have doubled from the low point, and Buffett, who announced in early May that he had cleared his position in aviation stocks, may have lost a lot.

Substantial positive push aviation stocks higher

According to the website of CAAC, in order to continue to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development under the new situation, recover part of international passenger flights in an orderly manner, and further meet the urgent needs of Chinese overseas students and overseas Chinese returning home, on June 4, the notice of CAAC on adjusting international passenger flights (hereinafter referred to as the notice) was issued, and since June 8 The current five ones measures for international passenger flights are adjusted.

After the adjustment of international passenger flights, 44 airlines in 23 countries are expected to increase flights by up to 44 a week, according to CAAC officials. It is expected that 20 airlines in 16 countries, including Algeria, Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Qatar, Kenya, Rwanda, Madagascar, Morocco, Mexico, Switzerland, Brunei, Ukraine, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam, will resume their flights, with a maximum of 20 flights per week.

In addition, this years government work report pointed out that the extension of the implementation period of the reduction and exemption of the civil aviation development fund to the end of the year is also directly beneficial to airlines.

According to agency statistics, in 2019, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines respectively paid 2.33 billion yuan and 1.602 billion yuan of Civil Aviation Development Fund, Air China about 1.818 billion yuan, and Spring Airlines paid 269 million yuan of Civil Aviation Development Fund.

Whether it can last depends on these data

At present, the willingness of passengers to travel is at the same level, which will maintain the current passenger rate, but there will be no faster growth. A gradual recovery in prices will also reduce airline losses. He said.

Sun Wenjian, spokesman of the Ministry of transport, said at a regular press conference on May 29 that positive progress has been made in the resumption of work and production in the transport industry, with the main indicators continuing to pick up. Among them, the passenger volume of civil aviation recovered to 47.4% of the same period last year.

In addition, according to the data of airlines, the recovery of transportation industry in April has been confirmed, with some data rising significantly month on month. This also supports the rise of the aviation sector.

Fund managers take a clear view of the aviation industry!

Reporter: Wang Peng

Although Buffett, the God of stocks, announced at the general meeting of shareholders on May 3 this year that he had cut all positions of the four major American Airlines, the overall performance of American Airlines has been impressive recently, and the ETF fund of American Airlines has rebounded 70% from the low point in March.

With the gradual recovery of domestic travel data, a number of institutions have looked at A-share aviation sector in recent years. More fund managers have taken a clear stand that the positive changes in the supply side will make Chinas aviation industry enter a longer boom cycle.

US airlines retaliatory gains

American Airlines announced on June 4 that it would return the number of domestic flights to 55% of that of the same period last year next month, after suffering from the large-scale reduction of the number of flights caused by the epidemic, the number of domestic and international flights under American Airlines shrank significantly compared with that of the same period last year.

Stimulated by the good news, American Airlines shares jumped 41.5% to $16.74 yesterday.

Vasu Raja, senior vice president of airline network strategy, said the companys domestic flights in May were only 20% of the same period last year, compared with 25% in June. As an airline, we are consciously betting that demand will pick up, the executive said. At the same time, we are betting on a recovery.

In fact, under the expectation of returning to work, the U.S. aviation stock plate has already recovered steadily, which is the opposite of Warren Buffetts previous judgment.

On May 3, at the annual Berkshire Hathaway video conference, Buffett said he was not optimistic about airlines and aircraft manufacturers. We hold shares in four major American Airlines (American Airlines, Delta, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines), and we have sold all our positions at present.

Despite Buffetts clearance of aviation stocks, investors who believe that the aviation industry will soon usher in a recovery are still frantically pouring in, which leads to the asset size of global jets (jets), the aviation theme ETF fund, increased by about 27 times in three months. As of the end of May, the fund has seen 62 consecutive trading days of net inflows, with its size surging to $950 million from $33 million in early March, according to FactSet.

Global jets, the US aviation themed ETF, surged 11.58% last night, rebounding 70% so far from $11.25 on March 19.

Domestic aviation stocks supported by institutions

According to Dongfang wealth choice data, since this month, B shares of Haikong, Spring Airlines and Huaxia Airlines have all increased by more than 5%; Jixiang airlines and Air China have increased by 4.05% and 3.86% respectively.

Take Chunqiu airlines as an example. If we start from a low of 28.88 yuan on March 19, as of June 5, the rise of Chunqiu airlines in more than two months has reached 35%.

Tianfeng Securities believes that the demand for domestic routes will continue to pick up, and the development of overseas epidemics has also shown positive signals at present, but it will take a long time for large-scale recovery of international passenger flow. At present, the first quarter report of each company has disclosed that with the control of the epidemic situation, the passenger flow of civil aviation is expected to recover significantly, the oil price is low and the cost is saved, the phased bad air has landed, and the aviation data has recovered.

As for the reasons of favoring domestic aviation stocks, Tian Yu, manager of value optimization hybrid fund of China Thailand Kaiyang, gives three reasons:

Second, from the supply side, the pattern of domestic aviation industry is better than that of the United States. The market share of the three major domestic airlines has exceeded 70%, and the access mechanism of the aviation industry is becoming more strict in all links, thus slowing down the overall supply growth. At the same time, there are many megacities in China, which are more densely populated compared with European and American countries, which makes the airspace resources over the city more limited compared with the travel demand, and the sudden outbreak brings a clearing to the supply side;