Since April, it has been reported that Ruiyuan fund will launch new special account products in a number of banks and securities companies, and many products have been implemented. According to the fund industry association, Ruiyuan fund has 18 products since May.
From the perspective of these special account products, the custodian involves Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Ningbo, China CITIC Bank
Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Huatai Securities, etc., involving many institutions. In terms of operation period, some products take 3 years, some take 10 years.
It is reported that the proposed investment manager of Ruiyuan is Li Wu. According to the previous public information, Li Wu is a master of economics from Shanghai University of Finance and economics with more than 20 years of experience in securities industry. Previously, he served successively as a staff member of Jiangsu Far East International Appraisal Co., Ltd., director of Shanghai Far East Credit Appraisal Co., Ltd., general manager of credit rating business department of United Credit Management Co., Ltd., deputy director of fixed income Department of Wells Fargo fund, deputy general manager of Wells Fargo asset management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., general manager of East credit management, general manager and fixed income of private fixed income investment department General manager and investment sponsor of the research department.
At present, Huang Zhen, general manager of the fixed income investment department of Ruiyuan fund, is in charge of the fixed income investment team. In addition to him, there are Li Wu, Cheng Bing and Wen Le in the fixed income investment team of the special account. Cheng Bing is now the investment manager of Ruiyuan fund. He was the deputy general manager of the Standing Committee of Xingye securities fund utilization management department. Wen Le is also the investment manager of Ruiyuan fund. He previously worked in transportation bank.
Public offering and special account are very good
Since the launch of the first special account of Ruiyuan fund in December 2018, every product has been sought after by the market. The first series of Ruiyuan insight special accounts launched at the end of 2018 have raised a total amount of more than 10 billion. At present, there are 49 registered special account products of Ruiyuan fund, mainly established in 2018 and may this year.
In fact, Ruiyuans public fund is also popular in the market. In March 2019, Ruiyuans first public fund, Ruiyuans growth value, attracted 72 billion yuan a day, and the proportion of class A shares was only 7.03%.
The Ruiyuan balanced value fund, issued in March this year, triggered 122.4 billion subscriptions from all market channels, setting a new record for the highest public fund subscription in history.
Why investment should be optimistic in the long run
Standing at such a challenging time, it is not easy to talk about future response. We may as well go back to the origin of investment, such as where the investment income comes from, what the value of the stock comes from, and how the stock is priced; whether the short-term market can be predicted, and why long-term investment is necessary, which may help us to clarify our thinking. We should always be in awe of the market, but we should also be optimistic about the future, especially when the market is extremely panicked.
What is the source of stock value
The intrinsic value of stock comes from the discount of free cash flow in the future. From this dimension, the impact of the short-term epidemic on the long-term value of the enterprise will not be very big. Unless this epidemic will cause great changes in peoples living habits in the future, the impact is the loss of free cash flow in that year.
If the epidemic is one-off, the losses will be eliminated as non recurring profit and loss, that is, directly deducted from the market value. If everyones life recovers as usual after next year, then its actual impact on the intrinsic value should be like this.
So what we have to judge here is whether the epidemic is frequent or not. This is very important for the judgment of value impact.
As far as the global spread of the epidemic is concerned, the duration of the global epidemic may be longer than expected, and the recovery of social and economic activities will take longer after the epidemic is completely over.
As countries attach great importance to epidemic prevention and control, and counter cyclical policies have been introduced, the time when market liquidity is most tense may have passed, although there may be a secondary disaster risk in economy, finance and society after the epidemic.
Chinas success in controlling the epidemic is due to the peoples spirit of collectivism and dedication, which also contributes to economic success, especially in manufacturing. We always believe that high-quality enterprises have the ability to continuously create value, to cope with crisis, to grow in crisis, and the competitive advantage of high-quality enterprises after the crisis will be enhanced. For investment, accompanying excellent enterprises is expected to obtain better long-term returns with high probability.
We are generally concerned about the prediction of short-term market changes. For example, where is the bottom of the market? The epidemic will last for several months, how will risk appetite change, and how will interest rates go? wait. We can have our own understanding of the short-term market, but it is very difficult to accurately predict the market itself, surpassing the ability circle of most people. We cant accurately predict the markets rise or fall, but we can try to control our greed and fear.
As far as the long-term value of an enterprise is concerned, if its intrinsic value is not damaged much because of this event, when the adjustment of stock price far exceeds the adjustment of intrinsic value, the expected potential return in the future will increase significantly. For example, the annual return of 10 points may become 15 points now, which will inevitably increase the potential return in the future in a downward way.
But what do we think of the changes? Grahams Mr. market is very impressive. The key problem behind this is that the intrinsic value of the company will not change with the companys share price most of the time. That is to say, the correlation between the pricing given by the investors and the intrinsic value of the enterprise is very low. If it is extended to several decades, the internal value of an enterprise may only have one value, which may be the only one. But when you look at it, it will be worth 100 yuan for a while and 10 yuan for a while. This value cannot be accurately estimated in advance. It will not change with the change of market price, nor with the change of our predicted price.
As a value investor, it is more a trade-off of risk return ratio and a professional evaluation of the internal value of the enterprise. It knows how to be firm underground when it is low, dare to give up some earnings differently when it is high, and look at the risk more. It is better to be alert when the market is overvalued, and be willing to look at the future actively when the risk is unfolded and released.
There is only one value or one line in the deduction of intrinsic value, but there are countless possibilities in fact, and different possibilities have different probabilities. We should completely follow different probabilities and odds, which refers to the potential rate of return, according to which we can evaluate what we should do to avoid mistakes, especially permanent losses.
According to many years of market observation, basically, 70-80% of the bear market comes from the market itself, from the excessive greed before and the excessive panic behind. If we say that the market is very healthy and has not been over priced, it is unlikely to fall significantly in theory. Of course, the sentiment of participants will amplify the market volatility.
Although it is difficult to predict the short-term market, it is not difficult to find that the impact of the short-term on the internal value of the company is not as large as expected. Although everyone is very concerned about short-term changes, in fact, the impact on long-term value is not as great as expected. The epidemic will not change the progress of the world and the rise of China. It will bring more emotional impact than sustained economic and capital market impact. We are always optimistic about the long-term development potential of Chinas future economy and the ability of excellent enterprises to create value.
Now is the time to be optimistic
If we have the ability to accurately predict the top and bottom of the market, we will definitely buy when the market falls to the bottom and sell when the market rises to the top. But the probability of guessing correctly and implementing in place is very low, and many times before the turning point, the market will last for a long time in the original trend. For example, the U.S. market experienced a rise of more than 10 years before this decline, which is a great challenge to find the turning point.
Back to what we started to talk about, how stocks are priced, and whether the short-term market can be accurately predicted. If you really know that the market will fall like this in the short term, why not sell it? But in fact, the ideal situation is to buy more and sell more.
Why are stock investors long-term optimists? For now, Howard said, the U.S. market seems to be good. Buffett said that in this situation, if there is no big change in interest rates, the value of stocks far exceeds that of bonds. If in the long run, even if there is no growth, zero growth of GDP, the listed companies have no ability to surpass GDP growth, zero growth of income and zero growth of profit, then the current 15 or 16 times valuation means that the potential return on investment is about 6-7%, and 6-7% return can seckill other major asset categories. Moreover, such prediction is very pessimistic. According to this calculation, the current 8.4x Shanghai 50, 10.7x Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, with an average static return of 10%, can easily surpass almost all major asset classes in the world.
Why are investors long-term optimists? The more important reason is that technological progress and market economy promote each other.
Scientific and technological progress is the core element of real GDP growth. Scientific and technological progress can be understood as productivity, while market economy is equivalent to institutional guarantee, which can be understood as production relationship. When science and technology progress and market economy are combined, that is to say, since the 18th century industrial revolution, the worlds GDP has grown nearly 200 times, and the speed of prosperity and diffusion is faster than any other period in the past.
Based on these two points, the society has been making progress, creating value, accumulating wealth and compound interest growth. Among them, in the 80 years from 1820 to 1900, the worlds income increased by three times, in the next 50 years, in the next 25 years, and in the next 33 years, forming an alarming curve. In the process of globalization, the increase of efficiency leads to the continuous rise of absolute wealth. Although it is not entirely fair, most people in the world are beneficiaries. At present, this mechanism has not changed greatly. In the context of global competition, efficiency gives priority to making the cake bigger, which is an eternal theme. In the process of continuous value creation and compound interest growth, all the intermediate callbacks are a review in the process of progress. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of China Fund News_ NF4368
Based on these two points, the society has been making progress, creating value, accumulating wealth and compound interest growth. Among them, in the 80 years from 1820 to 1900, the worlds income increased by three times, in the next 50 years, in the next 25 years, and in the next 33 years, forming an alarming curve.
In the process of globalization, the increase of efficiency leads to the continuous rise of absolute wealth. Although it is not entirely fair, most people in the world are beneficiaries.
At present, this mechanism has not changed greatly. In the context of global competition, efficiency gives priority to making the cake bigger, which is an eternal theme. In the process of continuous value creation and compound interest growth, all the intermediate callbacks are a review in the process of progress.