Since April, it has been reported that Ruiyuan fund will launch new special account products in a number of banks and securities companies, and many products have been implemented. According to the fund industry association, Ruiyuan fund has 18 products since May.
From the perspective of these special account products, the custodian involves Ping An Bank, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, Bank of Ningbo, China CITIC Bank
Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Huatai Securities, etc., involving many institutions. In terms of operation period, some products take 3 years, some take 10 years.
According to the fund gentleman, these products are mainly mixed products, mainly adopting the mixed allocation of stocks and bonds. From the perspective of Ruiyuan stable view series, some of them are similar to fixed income +, with fixed income investment ratio not less than 80% (convertible bond ratio not more than 30%), and equity assets ratio not more than 30%. In terms of strategy, the special account will use certain timing, hedging strategy portfolio volatility and withdrawal to control, pursue higher than the target income of pure debt portfolio and reduce the product volatility (the final product contract shall prevail). It is reported that Ruiyuans stable investment threshold may be set at 1 million yuan.
It is reported that the proposed investment manager of Ruiyuan is Li Wu. According to the previous public information, Li Wu is a master of economics from Shanghai University of Finance and economics with more than 20 years of experience in securities industry. Previously, he served successively as a staff member of Jiangsu Far East International Appraisal Co., Ltd., director of Shanghai Far East Credit Appraisal Co., Ltd., general manager of credit rating business department of United Credit Management Co., Ltd., deputy director of fixed income Department of Wells Fargo fund, deputy general manager of Wells Fargo asset management (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., general manager of East credit management, general manager and fixed income of private fixed income investment department General manager and investment sponsor of the research department.
In addition, at present, there seem to be six members in the special account team of Ruiyuan fund. According to a channel information, at present, the special account department of Ruiyuan fund is divided into equity and fixed income teams, among which the equity team is led by Chen Guangming, general manager of Ruiyuan fund. In addition to Chen Guangming, Tong Zhuo is also a member of the equity investment team of Ruiyuan special account. At present, he is the general manager of the private investment department of Ruiyuan fund. Previously, he has served as a researcher of Oriental Securities Research Institute, researcher of Huaxia Fund Investment Research Department, senior researcher of Shanghai Dongzheng asset management research department, director of equity research department, deputy general manager of private investment department, and has managed the leading trend of Dongfanghong Products.
Public offering and special account are very good
Because of Chen Guangmings strong appeal, Ruiyuan fund has always been the focus of the capital market, and every public offering and special account product issuance has been sought after. According to a source, the total scale of the special account under the management of Ruiyuan fund plus the public fund may exceed 40 billion yuan.
In fact, Ruiyuans public fund is also popular in the market. In March 2019, Ruiyuans first public fund, Ruiyuans growth value, attracted 72 billion yuan a day, and the proportion of class A shares was only 7.03%.
The Ruiyuan balanced value fund, issued in March this year, attracted 122.4 billion subscriptions from all market channels, setting a new record for the highest public fund subscription in history.
At present, the performance of two public funds under Ruiyuan fund is good.
Chen Guangming, general manager of Ruiyuan fund, made an internal exchange at the end of March, showing a more optimistic attitude towards the future market. Although after a month, it is worth reading again and again.
Why investment should be optimistic in the long run
The intrinsic value of stock comes from the discount of free cash flow in the future. From this dimension, the impact of the short-term epidemic on the long-term value of the enterprise will not be very big. Unless this epidemic will cause great changes in peoples living habits in the future, the impact is the loss of free cash flow in that year.
From the perspective of market value loss, theoretically subtract the expected free cash flow loss this year from the current market value. For example, the original market value of 100 billion yuan is expected to earn 10 billion yuan of free cash flow this year. If the free cash flow returns to zero this year due to the epidemic, the reasonable response is to deduct 10 billion yuan from the market value, that is, the market value of 100 billion yuan will become 90 billion yuan. But the market often deducts the market value by multiplying 10 billion by the corresponding valuation, that is to say, it is unreasonable for the short-term impact to be long-term. For example, this years profit is zero, or even negative, and the companys value should not be zero.
If the epidemic is one-off, the losses will be eliminated as non recurring profit and loss, that is, directly deducted from the market value. If everyones life recovers as usual after next year, then its actual impact on the intrinsic value should be like this.
Although the epidemic situation of pneumonia infected by the new coronavirus is fierce and continues to spread, it will disappear from any epidemic situation in history and Chinas anti epidemic situation.
As far as the global spread of the epidemic is concerned, the duration of the global epidemic may be longer than expected, and the recovery of social and economic activities will take longer after the epidemic is completely over.
As countries attach great importance to epidemic prevention and control, and counter cyclical policies have been introduced, the time when market liquidity is most tense may have passed, although there may be a secondary disaster risk in economy, finance and society after the epidemic.
Chinas success in controlling the epidemic is due to the peoples spirit of collectivism and dedication, which also contributes to economic success, especially in manufacturing. We always believe that high-quality enterprises have the ability to continuously create value, to cope with crisis, to grow in crisis, and the competitive advantage of high-quality enterprises after the crisis will be enhanced. For investment, accompanying excellent enterprises is expected to obtain better long-term returns with high probability.
Whether the short-term market can be accurately predicted
As far as the long-term value of an enterprise is concerned, if its intrinsic value is not damaged much because of this event, when the adjustment of stock price far exceeds the adjustment of intrinsic value, the expected potential return in the future will increase significantly. For example, the annual return of 10 points may become 15 points now, which will inevitably increase the potential return in the future in a downward way.
As a value investor, it is more a trade-off of risk return ratio and a professional evaluation of the internal value of the enterprise. It knows how to be firm underground when it is low, dare to give up some earnings differently when it is high, and look at the risk more. It is better to be alert when the market is overvalued, and be willing to look at the future actively when the risk is unfolded and released.
Its difficult for us to make short-term forecast on the index. Its more about the current position, whether its relatively less risk and better potential return in the future; and whether its relatively lower potential return and greater potential risk in some other higher positions.
There is only one value or one line in the deduction of intrinsic value, but there are countless possibilities in fact, and different possibilities have different probabilities. We should completely follow different probabilities and odds, which refers to the potential rate of return, according to which we can evaluate what we should do to avoid mistakes, especially permanent losses.
According to many years of market observation, basically, 70-80% of the bear market comes from the market itself, from the excessive greed before and the excessive panic behind. If we say that the market is very healthy and has not been over priced, it is unlikely to fall significantly in theory. Of course, the sentiment of participants will amplify the market volatility.
Now is the time to be optimistic
If we have the ability to accurately predict the top and bottom of the market, we will definitely buy when the market falls to the bottom and sell when the market rises to the top. But the probability of guessing correctly and implementing in place is very low, and many times before the turning point, the market will last for a long time in the original trend. For example, the U.S. market experienced a rise of more than 10 years before this decline, which is a great challenge to find the turning point.
Why are stock investors long-term optimists? For now, Howard said, the U.S. market seems to be good. Buffett said that in this situation, if there is no big change in interest rates, the value of stocks far exceeds that of bonds. If in the long run, even if there is no growth, zero growth of GDP, the listed companies have no ability to surpass GDP growth, zero growth of income and zero growth of profit, then the current 15 or 16 times valuation means that the potential return on investment is about 6-7%, and 6-7% return can seckill other major asset categories. Moreover, such prediction is very pessimistic. According to this calculation, the current 8.4x Shanghai 50, 10.7x Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, with an average static return of 10%, can easily surpass almost all major asset classes in the world.
Why are investors long-term optimists? The more important reason is that technological progress and market economy promote each other.
Scientific and technological progress is the core element of real GDP growth. Scientific and technological progress can be understood as productivity, while market economy is equivalent to institutional guarantee, which can be understood as production relationship. When science and technology progress and market economy are combined, that is to say, since the 18th century industrial revolution, the worlds GDP has grown nearly 200 times, and the speed of prosperity and diffusion is faster than any other period in the past.
Based on these two points, the society has been making progress, creating value, accumulating wealth and compound interest growth. Among them, in the 80 years from 1820 to 1900, the worlds income increased by three times, in the next 50 years, in the next 25 years, and in the next 33 years, forming an alarming curve. In the process of globalization, the increase of efficiency leads to the continuous rise of absolute wealth. Although it is not entirely fair, most people in the world are beneficiaries. At present, this mechanism has not changed greatly. In the context of global competition, efficiency gives priority to making the cake bigger, which is an eternal theme. In the process of continuous value creation and compound interest growth, all the intermediate callbacks are a review in the process of progress. Source: Yang Bin, editor in charge of China Fund News_ NF4368
Based on these two points, the society has been making progress, creating value, accumulating wealth and compound interest growth. Among them, in the 80 years from 1820 to 1900, the worlds income increased by three times, in the next 50 years, in the next 25 years, and in the next 33 years, forming an alarming curve.
In the process of globalization, the increase of efficiency leads to the continuous rise of absolute wealth. Although it is not entirely fair, most people in the world are beneficiaries.
At present, this mechanism has not changed greatly. In the context of global competition, efficiency gives priority to making the cake bigger, which is an eternal theme. In the process of continuous value creation and compound interest growth, all the intermediate callbacks are a review in the process of progress.