Tesla has never been calm: self driving and car crash 8 times in 19 months

 Tesla has never been calm: self driving and car crash 8 times in 19 months

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In fact, before that, Tesla had already had many accidents caused by automatic driving system. They are constantly undermining Teslas brand power, but this may be just the tip of the iceberg that Tesla is under pressure.

Tesla is facing more and more lawsuits in the Chinese market. So far this year, Tesla Motors Sales Service (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has 14 lawsuits, most of which are sales contract disputes, according to the litigation service website of Shanghai court. According to the trial information network of the Beijing court, since May 21, there have been 24 announcements on the trial of disputes over sales contracts between car owners and Tesla motor sales service (Beijing) Co., Ltd..

Photo source: litigation service network of Shanghai court

Some analysts believe that the continuous lawsuits are related to Teslas repeated price adjustments. Not long ago, musk was also in a rush to return to work, hard just after the local public health department, and on the microblog hot search list.

Willing to risk arrest and return to work, because the Chinese market is becoming more and more important to Tesla. Although Teslas sales in China fell nearly 60% month on month in April, its sales trend in May is rapidly climbing. Teslas sales in China in May will be an interesting number. Cui Dongshu, Secretary General of the Federation, told the reporter of the daily economic news.

Photo source: Daily Economic News (map)

On the one hand, it ignores the demands of consumers, and on the other hand, the sales volume fluctuates dramatically. Facing the maverick musk, the industry cant help asking: who can block Tesla?

Eight price adjustments in 19 months

In terms of price volatility, it seems that no car company can win over Tesla.

Since the price of model 3 was announced in China in November 2018, Tesla has made eight price adjustments successively. Frequent price adjustment makes Teslas price trend known as roller coaster, and high-frequency price reduction also makes cutting leek become Teslas intuitive label, which leads to a series of rights protection lawsuits and disputes.

For Teslas price reduction, the industry has long predicted. On April 23, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of science and technology and the national development and Reform Commission jointly issued the notice on improving the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the notice). According to the notice, the price of new energy passenger vehicles shall be less than 300000 yuan (including 300000 yuan) before subsidies.

Coincidentally, he Xiaopeng, chairman and CEO of Xiaopeng automobile, also supported the price reduction theory. I think the price of domestic model 3 will be reduced to 277500 after the long-term subsidy in this year, which is 61500 lower than the current price of 339000, close to last year when I said that the price of domestic Tesla could be reduced by another 10000 US dollars, he said

Photo source: screenshot of Weibo (@ XP - he Xiaopeng)

Its worth noting that Teslas price probe doesnt seem to stop here. Just after Teslas official landing, daily economic news reporter visited many Tesla experience stores in Beijing and learned that Tesla may have a wave of price cuts at the end of the year. If you want to buy a domestic model 3, we suggest you buy another car at the end of the year. There is also the possibility of price reduction for long-term models, but the specific time is not clear. A salesperson from a Tesla experience store in Chaoyang District told reporters that it will take about six weeks to collect the domestic model 3 long-term model.

At the 2019 performance presentation held on May 11, Ningde times (300750, SZ) also gave more evidence that Tesla may reduce its price. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Ningde times, said that the supply time of Ningde times to Tesla is about the second half of this year, and the supply is not limited to lithium iron phosphate or ternary batteries. The specific products to be supplied depend on the market demand.

Based on this, although Tesla announced on May 15 that the long-term RWD version of model 3 made in China was delivered in advance, after the end of the subsidy transition period on July 22, the price of the long-term RWD version of model 3 will continue to be 344.05 million yuan. But consumers dont buy, more and more wait parties begin to appear, and even Tesla owners who fall into the distribution reduction door and price reduction rights protection storm express regret to start Tesla, and start to strongly dissuade their family or friends from buying Tesla.

Pictures from Weibo

There are discussions on the Internet that Tesla will definitely reduce its price in the future. Now its debating when to buy it without losing. The standard model 3 has been reduced to 270000. I want to wait and see if the long-range car will be reduced to 300000. Qinchuan (a pseudonym) is Teslas iron powder and has always been concerned about Tesla products. Originally, he wanted to take advantage of the May Day holiday to buy a car. He was very confused about the price trend of Tesla, but now he is still holding the money to wait and see.

It is worth mentioning that the sales volume in April also seems to indicate that Teslas current situation in the Chinese market is not optimistic. In April, Teslas sales in China plummeted to 3635 vehicles, down more than 64% month on month, from nearly 10200 in March, according to the China Federation.

Cartography: Zhang Bei, a journalist

According to the analysis of CITIC Securities, Teslas sales price has penetrated below 300000 yuan. The target group of model 3 is no longer limited to luxury brands such as BBA (Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi), and high-end models of joint-venture brands such as Volkswagen, Toyota, Honda will also become its potential competitors.

Some analysts believe that this means that Tesla is entering into a more price sensitive consumer group, which pays more attention to the cost performance of vehicles. The frequent reduction of Teslas selling price will sacrifice the interests of the old owners, will consume the brand awareness and recognition established by Tesla in the early stage, and will gradually reduce the loyalty of the owners to the brand.

The impact of price on different models is different. The lower the price, the greater the impact. At present, the domestic model 3 low configuration version has been reduced to less than 300000 yuan, but the long endurance is still above 300000 yuan, which shows that Tesla is also considering the impact of the continuous price reduction on the brand. Xie Tian, managing director and global partner of Boston Consulting, believes that Tesla does not want the entire brands premium ability to be affected by the price reduction, and if it causes its premium ability to decline as a result, it will lose more than it deserves.

From BBA to joint venture, or even independent high-end models, Teslas former glory is fading. Under the dual influence novel coronavirus pneumonia and the car market descend, the domestic consumers are also becoming rational. In this context, Teslas wanton price reduction can only evolve into its own resistance.

Surrounded by wolves

In fact, in addition to playing games with consumers, Tesla has more rivals.

It is generally believed in the industry that with the introduction of the new subsidy policy and the continuous exploration of Teslas selling price, the market pattern of 200000-400000 yuan models in China will not change much.

Citic securities analysis said that with the domestic launch of Tesla in 2020, especially the price down to 300000 yuan, the penetration rate of electric vehicles of 250000-300000 yuan and over 300000 yuan will increase rapidly. On the one hand, it puts forward higher cost performance, rapid response ability for the supply chain, and brings greater incremental space. With the maturity of the supply chain brought by Teslas large volume, it also helps the prices of other electric vehicle brands decline.

At the beginning of the new subsidy policy, Li Xiang used to describe the pressure that Teslas price reduction will bring to the domestic pure electric vehicle market. In Li Xiangs view, setting the threshold of 300000 yuan is to assist Tesla in fighting against disabled domestic pure electric brands, and domestic brand models within the range of 200000-400000 yuan will bear the brunt.

Cartography: Zhang Bei, a journalist

In general, Tesla has a high probability that two models will enter the price range of 200000-300000 yuan. The hardest hit is that at present, the price of domestic pure electric vehicles is more than 200000 yuan, and many domestic vehicles will be priced within 200000 yuan. Li Xiang told the daily economic news.

He Xiaopeng also believes that after Teslas price reduction, the competitive pressure of electric vehicles with the original price of 150000-400000 will obviously increase, so everyone should be prepared. However, this kind of competition is good for customers and good for market cake.

On April 27, Xiaopeng P7 was officially launched. The range of NEDC endurance mileage is 552km ~ 706km, and the price range is 229900 ~ 349900 yuan. From the comparison of endurance mileage, configuration, price and other aspects, Xiaopeng P7 locks its rivals in Tesla. He Xiaopeng said that Xiaopeng would represent made in China in the new track and conduct PK with Tesla.

Photo source: by Zhang Xiaoqing

In this context, Cui Dongshu believes that there is not no chance for the new forces to break through in the competition with Tesla. Although new force car manufacturers are generally under great pressure at present, they can choose to compete with Tesla in different ways. Tesla has a complete price system, and there are still many opportunities and opportunities for new forces of car building to compete with them. Cui Dongshu said.

In the face of Teslas long drive and direct entry, it is not only the new forces of car building that are actively preparing for and blocking, but also the independent brands are making continuous efforts. On April 22, arcfox u03b1 - t has opened the reservation. The comprehensive endurance mileage of the new car is 653km, starting from the reservation price of 280000 yuan, which is close to the price of Teslas domestic model 3. Arcfox is a brand created by BAIC new energy to break the situation in high-end products, directly benchmarking Tesla.

Photo source: arcfox China official website

In the traditional fuel vehicle market, the price of more than 300000 yuan has always been the world of luxury vehicles, and showing a strong momentum of growth. According to the data of China Federation of passenger transport, in 2019, the cumulative sales volume of models above RMB 300000 was about 1.549 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the market share increased from 5.8% in 2018 to 7.5%.

In Xie Tians view, the price of Tesla will erode the market share of traditional luxury cars in the range of 200000-400000 yuan. Teslas competitors are obviously not just electric car companies, but also traditional fuel vehicles in luxury cars. In this field, the price difference of 20000 yuan or 30000 yuan will affect many peoples purchase intention.

Xie Tian believes that at present, Tesla is still in short supply in China, and its capacity has not been fully released. What luxury car companies need to consider more is how to keep up with the market pace and improve competitiveness before Teslas capacity is fully released.

CITIC Securities believes that the penetration of Teslas selling price below 300000 yuan will further open up a wide penetration space of electrification and intelligence, and that high-end models of joint-venture brands such as Volkswagen, Toyota and Honda will also become potential competitors of Tesla.

Cui Dongshu agreed. However, compared with joint venture high-end models, luxury brand models face more pressure. Although the joint venture brand will also become the target of Teslas competition, it is still different from Teslas products in use. At present, the joint venture high-end models are mainly used for official business, business travel or families with a large number of people. On this level, Tesla products have some shortcomings. Cui Dongshu said that in the competition with Tesla, luxury brands should launch more new energy products in time and face the competition.

At present, Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi, Lexus and other luxury brands have launched pure electric models. From the price range, the price of Benz EQC is 563800-606800 yuan, Audi e-tron is 692800-828600 yuan, and Lexus ux300e is 362000-385000 yuan. However, it is worth noting that the above models are all imported models.

Photo source: Mercedes Benz official website

But to be sure, China is still Teslas most important market. Tesla said that the gross margin level of Shanghai Super factory is close to the level of model 3 made in the United States. The industry generally believes that Teslas production and delivery in China is the key to the annual delivery target of 500000 vehicles.

Tesla has tasted the sweet spot of the Chinese market, increased domestic efforts to speed up vehicle delivery, and the ultimate goal is to rely on the Chinese market to improve the overall global delivery. According to Yan Jinghui, an expert in the automobile industry.

According to the public data, at present, the localization rate of parts in Tesla Shanghai Super factory is about 30%, and it is planned to increase to 70% ~ 80% by July 2020. At the end of the year, domestic model 3 will realize the localization of all parts.

Photo source: visual China

According to statistics, after model 3 is fully localized, the cost of raw materials (parts) can be saved by 10% ~ 20%, the manufacturing cost can be reduced by 50%, and the labor cost can be reduced by 75%. According to this calculation, after the model 3 is fully localized, the total production cost is expected to decrease by 20% ~ 28%.

Some analysts believe that although Teslas sales momentum in the Chinese market is good at present, and it is possible to further reduce the price and bring more incremental space, the efficiency of the Shanghai factory may not be ideal at the early stage of operation. Only after the domestic model 3 model enters a relatively mature stage of large-scale, will the Shanghai factory realize the scale effect, and then achieve a substantial reduction in cost.

Blocking from power exchange mode

It is worth noting that in addition to setting a red line of 300000 yuan in the new subsidy policy, it is also proposed that in order to encourage the development of new business mode of power exchange and accelerate the promotion of new energy vehicles, the vehicles of power exchange mode are not limited by this provision.

Thanks to the favorable new policy, the sales volume of Weilai in May reached 3436, three times higher than that of the same period last year, and the actual delivery number rose month on month for three consecutive months.

January to May delivery volume of Weilai automobile

Under the support of power exchange mode, compared with Tesla, which lost sales in April, Weilai automobile seems to release stronger market attraction, or will enhance its competitiveness against Tesla.

While the iron making is still hot, Weilai is also accelerating the layout and construction of power stations. On May 21, Weilai automobile officially announced that niopower has been continuously upgrading the layout of national replacement power stations, adding five new ones within six days, respectively located in Beijing, Taiyuan, Yantai, Nanchang and Foshan. At present, the total number of yulaichang power stations has reached 131, covering 58 cities across the country.

Photo source: by Li Xing, a journalist

For a long time, as the head enterprise of a new force in domestic vehicle manufacturing, people have always been keen to compare Yulai with Tesla, and Yulai never avoids benchmarking Tesla. In terms of power exchange mode, we have the advantage of differentiation. With policy support, the power exchange mode may become a powerful tool to block Tesla.

It is understood that Tesla also introduced the power exchange technology in 2013. Even when the original model s model was designed and produced, it was considered to provide the power exchange function. However, due to cost considerations, Tesla finally chose to give up.

In fact, the power exchange mode can effectively reduce the cost of consumers car purchase and play an important role in promoting new energy vehicles. It is understood that the power battery accounts for a high proportion of the vehicle cost, which has been one of the consumption pain points of new energy vehicles. According to the 2018 China new energy vehicle industry report released by iResearch, 40% of the cost of new energy vehicles is concentrated on power batteries, which makes the cost of pure electric vehicles of the same level about 30% higher than that of fuel vehicles.

After the separation of car and electricity, consumers will no longer pay for the battery, and the cost of car purchase will be greatly reduced. For example, an electric car worth 140000 yuan may only be sold for about 70000 yuan. A switch mode provider told reporters.

Software upgrade is not a new thing, but the battery can be upgraded flexibly. So far, only we have developed mature solutions around the world. In 2018, the es8 was 70 kilowatt hours. Last year, it was upgraded to 84 kilowatt hours. This year, we will deliver 100 kilowatt hours, an increase of 20% every year. The cost of the battery is also reduced. We have ensured the competitiveness of the residual value of the owners vehicle through the way of rent and use, vehicle electricity separation and flexible upgrading. Li Bin said.

Xu Haidong, assistant to the Secretary General of China Association of automobile industry, also believes that vehicle electricity separation can solve a series of problems such as long charging time, battery attenuation and recycling of electric vehicles.

The reporter of daily economic news once visited the operating vehicle power station in Hangzhou and found that the whole power change process was less than 5 minutes. The replaced battery was placed in a special charging room for charging, which was also conducive to quality management. In the environment of consistent temperature and humidity, charging data can be monitored in real time, and equalization, single pack charging and other technical means can be used to almost double the battery life. At that time, a staff member who changed the power station told reporters.

Photo source: by sun Tongtong

In fact, since last year, relevant ministries and commissions have repeatedly advocated the promotion of the power exchange model. At the beginning of June last year, the implementation plan for promoting the renewal, upgrading and smooth resource recycling of key consumer goods (2019-2020), jointly issued by the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of ecological environment and the Ministry of Commerce, clearly stated that: we should significantly reduce the cost of new energy vehicles, guide enterprises to innovate business models, promote new energy vehicle battery rental and other vehicle electricity separation consumption modes, and reduce the cost of vehicle purchase; With reference to the power exchange mode and application experience in the field of public services, enterprises are encouraged to develop new energy vehicle products with combination of charging and power exchange, flexible battery configuration and long driving mileage.

At present, in addition to Weilai, BAIC has also adopted the power exchange mode in operating taxis. Recently, SAIC Roewe also revealed that the new car will adopt a new battery structure of rechargeable, exchangeable and upgradeable, and follow up the power change mode.

Although there are still some problems in the popularization of power exchange mode, positive signals have been released at the national policy level. Some insiders believe that the support for the power exchange mode and the separation of vehicle and electricity will help reduce the cost of consumers car purchase, enhance their desire to purchase, and thus promote the popularity of new energy vehicles. To a certain extent, it will also hinder Teslas strong offensive in HUAFA.

Reporters notes

Arbitrary price reduction, brand from heaven to human

At the beginning of entering China, Tesla was always regarded as the toy of the rich.

High price, too avant-garde high-tech label, frequent safety and quality problems At that time, many middle-class consumers in China were deterred by Tesla.

More importantly, automobile manufacturing is a complex process, which needs deep accumulation, which is the weakness of Tesla. Tesla has set many records for the speed of building and putting into production in China. For a while, Tesla speed was amazing. However, frequent product quality problems made Tesla pay for this kind of speed.

An engineer from the automotive industry once told reporters that Tesla pursues software upgrade iteration blindly, which is not rigorous in many aspects such as test verification, production and manufacturing, not solid enough, and far from the traditional vehicle enterprises in quality control. Nowadays, in the face of the dual impact of the economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, domestic automobile consumption is becoming more and more calm and rational. After the halo and gimmick were gradually blown away, Teslas April sales volume, which was addicted to cutting leeks and wantonly reduced prices, also proved that Tesla was not fully prepared for the Chinese market in some way. Tesla, who is from heaven to earth, should face up to the problems and make up for its own shortcomings. While strengthening software defines cars, Tesla should also be awed by the automobile industry. Reporter: Pei Jianru, sun Tongtong editor: Fan Wenqing vision: Chen Guanyu typesetting: Zhang Beima original source: Daily Economic News Author: Pei Jianru, sun Tongtong editor in charge: Wang Xiaowu_ NF

An engineer from the automotive industry once told reporters that Tesla pursues software upgrade iteration blindly, which is not rigorous in many aspects such as test verification, production and manufacturing, not solid enough, and far from the traditional vehicle enterprises in quality control.

Nowadays, in the face of the dual impact of the economic downturn and the impact of the epidemic, domestic automobile consumption is becoming more and more calm and rational. After the halo and gimmick were gradually blown away, Teslas April sales volume, which was addicted to cutting leeks and wantonly reduced prices, also proved that Tesla was not fully prepared for the Chinese market in some way. Tesla, who is from heaven to earth, should face up to the problems and make up for its own shortcomings. While strengthening software defines cars, Tesla should also be awed by the automobile industry.

Editor: Fan Wenqing

Typesetting: Zhang Beima yuan