However, the release of public loans is subject to the rapid decline of bond interest rates. Our lending in May was up from April, but mainly for personal loans, said a person in Shenzhen. Because the interest rate of issuing bonds of large companies is low, the company cant put them out.
A number of industry insiders said that since April, personal loan products such as credit card and credit loan began to recover.
Influenced by the epidemic situation and other factors, the bank is still cautious about high-risk products, one person said. Credit card loans of our bank increased in May on April, but there was no significant increase. It is expected that the launch intensity at the end of June will return to that at the end of last year.
East China branch of another big bank said: in May, the credit showed a surge , and increased the online loan, especially the credit within 300000. Those with more than 300000 yuan can also do online, that is, mortgage as you go. The increase mainly comes from personal loans, and the growth rate of public investment is average.
The growth rate of personal housing mortgage loan in some areas is obvious. A second-class branch of a major bank in North China told the 21st century economic reporter that the recent housing loan growth was obvious, especially the second-hand housing prices rose, with an increase of 20%, and the housing loan market recovered significantly. To analyze the reasons for the recovery, in addition to the rigid demand and fundamentals, it is mainly because the demand squeezed by the epidemic in the last few months has been released intensively, so it is not easy to judge whether this trend will continue in the future.
Another major bank, North China branch, said that new loans rebounded in May and the housing loan growth was very fast on a month on month basis. It can be said that it basically recovered to the level before the epidemic, and April was the release of the warming signal, and the growth rate in May was more obvious than that in April.
In contrast, consumer loans have been stable. Consumer loans are generally stable, even though they are a little higher than before, but they are also offset by prepayment, said the person from the banks North China branch. At present, the policy still tends to support the real economy. The growth of mortgage business loans and small and micro credit loans is obvious, but the consumption loans are only maintaining the balance at present.
Wang Yifeng, chief banking analyst of Everbright Securities, previously told the media that the pace of credit supply in May was the same as that in April, showing strong characteristics of falling at the beginning of the month and surging at the end of the month. In the past two months, there has been a significant recovery growth in retail lending, and there are signs of improvement month by month. From the situation in May, the short-term consumer credit represented by credit card showed a restorative growth, and the recovery of housing mortgage loan was relatively better, which basically recovered to the normal monthly growth of about 300-400 billion.
From the demand side, Clary data shows that in May, the sales of top 100 real estate enterprises reached 1091.54 billion yuan, up 21.3% month on month, up 12.2% year-on-year, and market transactions continued to recover. In addition, in May, 4172 sets of online signs were newly built in Beijing, the highest in nearly 10 months, up 31% year-on-year and 34% month on month.
In terms of residents consumption, credit card big households such as automobiles and restaurants have recovered. On June 2, according to the statistics of sales volume express of key enterprises, the sales volume of automobile industry in May is expected to complete 2.136 million units, with a growth of 3.2% month on month and a year-on-year growth of 11.7%; from January to May this year, the cumulative sales volume of automobile industry is expected to complete 7.896 million units, with a year-on-year drop of 23.1%. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Commerce, as of June 1, the return rate of retail enterprises above the designated size was more than 95%, and the daily average sales of key monitoring retail enterprises in late May increased by 4.8% compared with that in mid May.
Before that, according to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to April, the catering revenue was 833.3 billion yuan, down 41.2%; the catering revenue of units above designated size was 178.6 billion yuan, down 38.6% year on year. In the accommodation industry, the average occupancy rate of the national accommodation industry in the first quarter of 2020 is only 18%.
Corporate loans face bond pressure
On the whole, the industry generally expects more credit in May than in April.
Ni Jun, chief analyst of Guangfa Securities banking industry, thinks that from January to April, bank credit rose sharply, which is due to policy guidance and the impact of banks rush to put in under the downward trend of terminal interest rate. As these factors subside, subsequent credit growth is expected to slow. In terms of bond financing, in May, the liquidity margin between banks weakened, the supply of government bonds was more, and the net financing amount of credit bonds fell.
Nomura Securities expects that the monetary and credit easing policies of the central bank will push up the growth rate of RMB loan balance in May, and the growth rate of social financing scale stock and M2 will continue to rise. It is expected that the new RMB loans will increase from 1.7 trillion yuan in April to 1.8 trillion yuan, which is higher than the seasonal trend level (the average value from 2018 to may 2019 is 1.165 trillion yuan).
In a low interest rate environment, it is not very friendly to the on balance sheet credit, and the FTP of the bank is subject to the relatively rigid liability cost, so there is little room for reduction. A person from the head office of the stock bank explained that large enterprises have gone to issue bonds.
From the perspective of credit and financial markets, the interest rate of corporate loans has declined significantly. In the first quarter of 2020, the weighted average interest rate of general loans was 5.48%, a decrease of 26bp compared with the fourth quarter of last year; however, under the significant fall of money market interest rate, the bond market interest rate dropped significantly, the current three-year AA + corporate bond yield has dropped to around 2.78%, a decrease of more than 70bp compared with the end of 2019.
According to the latest data from the Ministry of finance, in May, the issuance of local bonds reached 1302.5 billion yuan, a new high in a single month. Among them, 998 billion yuan of new special bonds, accounting for nearly 80%. According to wind data, the net financing of corporate bonds fell from 892 billion yuan in April to 2100 billion yuan in May.
Source: Chen Hequn, editor in charge of 21st century economic report_ NB12679