The three major U.S. stock indexes rose and fell on Thursday, mainly affected by poor employment data and the sell-off of technology stocks in late trading. By the end of the day, the Dow was up 11.93 points, or 0.05%, at 26281.82, the Nasdaq was down 0.69%, at 9615.81, and the S & P 500 was down 0.34%, at 3112.35. The NASDAQ and the S & P 500 index ended four consecutive positive sessions. It is worth mentioning that the Nasdaq 100 index recovered its losses within the year and set a new record, ending 0.8% lower due to the diving of large technology stocks.
Civil aviation stocks continued to be strong, driving global aviation ETF (jets) up about 11%. Among them, American Airlines rose 41.10%, United Airlines rose 16.20%, JetBlue rose 15.53%, delta rose 13.73%, Southwest Airlines rose 5.08%. In addition, Boeing rose 6.43%. The gradual recovery of international flights is an important factor to stimulate the stock price rise. United Airlines announced that it will resume more than 150 flights to the United States and Canada, including about 140 previously grounded direct flights.
Bank stocks did well, with Citigroup up 4.33%, Bank of America up 3.76%, and JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs up more than 2%.
In China, Ruixing coffee rose 56.98%, with the largest increase of nearly 90% in the session, and Weilai auto rose 6.61%. The company delivered 3436 cars in May, refreshing the monthly delivery record. Weilai expects to achieve the delivery target in the second quarter, with Ctrip up 0.54%, Alibaba down 0.26%, JD down 0.37%, iqiyi down 0.62%, Tencent music down 2.71%, pinduoduo down 2.76%.
US trade in goods and services plummeted to its lowest level in nearly a decade in April, driven by demand hit by the outbreak. Exports fell by 20.5% on a month on month basis to US $151.3 billion, while imports fell by 13.7% on a month on month basis to US $2007 billion, the largest decline since 1992. Total imports and exports fell to $352 billion, the lowest since May 2010. The total trade deficit in goods and services increased to $49.4 billion.
Ethan Harris, head of global economics at Bank of America, sees may as a transitional month. Although the number of redundancies is very high, in the last ten days of the month, the enterprise re recruitment activity has recovered, and the peak of the impact of the epidemic on employment should have appeared. From all indicators, whether the unemployment rate or the number of redundancies, this should be the last negative (monthly employment report), and the next report should be a positive number. He said.
Harris expects millions of new jobs to be added in the United States in the coming months. Half of the jobs affected in the short term are expected to recover. Unemployment should reach 13% by September and 11% by the end of the year.
Considering that the decline of ADP employment in May in the United States announced on March 3 is much less than expected, Michael gapen, chief U.S. economist of Barclays, thinks that the non-agricultural data in May will not be too bad. The employment population may fall by 7 million, and the unemployment rate will rise to 17.5%. The employment position will start to recover from June, but the potential disadvantage is that the speed of economic recovery may be slow. He said.
Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the west, said it needed to focus on sub indicators of the non farm report, such as changes in jobs in manufacturing and construction, and whether layoffs extended to any new industry, such as state and local governments, or financial services. It seems that the economic restart is a little faster than expected, (the third quarter) looks much stronger than we thought a month ago, but we are worried about the second wave. In this way, the economy may slow down again in the fourth quarter, triggering a new round of layoffs. He pointed out.
Discussion on the future trend of US stocks
David Donabedian, CIBCs chief investment officer, said investors continued to ignore potential risks, including the epidemic, and instead focused on a faster than expected economic recovery, which could signal a faster time to bottom out. In recent weeks, stimulus measures by governments and central banks have opened the door to cheap money that is entering financial markets and boosting asset prices.
Kerry Craig, global market strategist at JPMorgan asset management, said the global stock market was being driven by improved business sentiment, a gradual reopening, concerns about oil oversupply fading and other stimulus measures. But he also said investors need to be cautious. Next, we are faced with adverse factors such as increasing geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US election and the domestic situation in the US. Its hard to say what will hinder the performance of the stock market and would rather invest in a more balanced way now, Craig said
Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist at leuthold group, an independent research firm, said it was clear that the broader stock market (i.e. small cap stocks, cyclical industries, international stock markets and emerging stock markets) had been increasingly involved in the rebound in the near future, indicating that the rapid economic recession caused by the epidemic was over.
Crude oil bottomed out and recovered, the European Central Bank expanded the scale of debt purchase, and European stocks fell across the board
International oil prices bottomed out and rebounded. Investors are concerned about whether OPECs production reduction agreement will be postponed. However, the rebound of us fuel oil inventory has raised concerns. WTI crude oil contract rose 0.3% to $37.41/barrel in recent months. Brent crude rose 0.2% to $39.85/barrel in recent months.
US crude oil inventories fell 2.077 million barrels in the week ended May 29, better than market expectations, according to data released by the EIA. However, gasoline inventory increased by 2.8 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 9.9 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations. US crude oil production fell for the ninth consecutive week in the week, down 200000 barrels on month to 11.2 million barrels / day.
The European Central Bank announced the June interest rate resolution, maintaining the three key interest rates unchanged, and will continue to keep the interest rates at a low level in the future to support the real economy, especially the financing environment of enterprises and households. The European Central Bank will further expand the scale of PEPP to EUR 600 billion to EUR 1.35 trillion, and extend it to at least June 2021 or the end of the crisis. At the same time, net purchases under the asset purchase program (APP) will continue at a rate of 20 billion euros per month, and an additional 120 billion euros of temporary purchase bonds will be added by the end of this year. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at a subsequent press conference that the euro area is facing unprecedented contraction, but there are signs of bottoming out and recovery. It is expected that the economy will recover in the second half of the year, but the speed and scale of recovery are still uncertain. The ECB expects eurozone GDP to contract 8.7% this year, before rebounding 5.2% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The decision of the European Central Bank lowered the bond yields of the countries in the euro area. The Italian 10-year bonds fell to 1.40% from the intraday high of 1.56%. The bond yields of Greece, Portugal and Spain also fell across the board. The euro / dollar rose 1% at one time, standing at the 1.13 level. Source: Wang Xiaowu, editor in charge of the first financial network_ NF
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said at a subsequent press conference that the euro area is facing unprecedented contraction, but there are signs of bottoming out and recovery. It is expected that the economy will recover in the second half of the year, but the speed and scale of recovery are still uncertain. The ECB expects eurozone GDP to contract 8.7% this year, before rebounding 5.2% and 3.3% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. The decision of the European Central Bank lowered the bond yields of the countries in the euro area. The Italian 10-year bonds fell to 1.40% from the intraday high of 1.56%. The bond yields of Greece, Portugal and Spain also fell across the board. The euro / dollar rose 1% at one time, standing at the 1.13 level.