British university warns the us to lift the ban cautiously: matching does not keep up with the number of deaths or increases significantly

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 British university warns the us to lift the ban cautiously: matching does not keep up with the number of deaths or increases significantly


Screenshot of the report of the research group at Imperial College London. (photo taken from Imperial College, London)

The report, published Thursday (21) on the schools website, concluded that the epidemic is not under control in most parts of the United States and that if effective additional measures are not taken, current restrictions must be carefully relaxed. The report points out that 12 states in the United States have a transmission index above the threshold, which means that the average number of infected people in these States is more than one. We expect the increase in mobility to lead to a recovery in the mode of transmission as social distance relaxes, while all other factors will remain the same, the report summary reads We predict that if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains the same, the number of deaths in the next two months could be more than twice as high as the current cumulative death toll.

The national infection rate in the United States is 4.1% (3.7% - 4.5%), and it varies from 0.2% (0.0% - 0.4%) in Montana to 16.6% (12.8% - 21.6%) in New York. (source: Imperial College London website)

The researchers also said the data showed that no state was close to population immunity.. Currently, only 4% of Americans are infected, and even in the most affected States, less than a quarter of the population is infected, the report said. In New York, about 16.6% of people are infected, compared with about 1% in California and less than 1% in Maine, the researchers said.

The report shows that epidemics seem to be under control in only a few states. The researchers measured this by looking at the spread rate of the virus: a ratio of 1 means that each infected person only transmits the virus to another person; the higher the spread rate, the more people infected. States with ratios below 1 include Montana, Hawaii, Wyoming, Alaska, West Virginia, Vermont, Idaho, North Dakota, and Maine. The highest rates were found in Colorado, Arizona, Texas, Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois and Ohio.

Florida is the first state to open, lifting restrictions on places such as beaches and stadiums. (source: gettyimages)

(function(){( window.slotbydup=window .slotbydup||[]).push({id:u5811557,container:ssp_ 5811557, async:true }However, the report also points out that the model used to draw conclusions is not a prediction, and other factors (including testing and contact tracking) will affect the increase or decrease of the number of deaths. Based on this, the United States could face between 350000 and 1.2 million deaths, the study found. The report warns that although the spread of the new coronavirus in the United States has decreased, many states are still not under control, and those states that are considering how and when to mitigate interventions should be cautious in their consideration and decision-making, and strengthening monitoring and control is essential to combat the epidemic. Since the beginning of the deadly virus pandemic, as of around 2:30 p.m. Beijing time on May 23, there have been more than 1.6 million confirmed cases and more than 96000 deaths in the United States. Since the 20th, Connecticut began to lift restrictions, 50 states in the United States have fully lifted restrictions to achieve partial restart. Health officials have repeatedly warned that despite a landmark restart, Americans still risk contracting the highly contagious and even deadly virus. Related recommendation: Global: other national laboratories in the United States dare to check their own research institutions in the United States report that the virus originated in nature after losing federal funding CCTV: trump is really confused or confused without a mask? CDC in the United States: new coronavirus is not easy to spread on the surface of objects and animals. Source: overseas website Author: Hou Xingchuan editor in charge: Zhang Chao_ NA1563

However, the report also points out that the model used to draw conclusions is not a prediction, and other factors (including tests and contact tracking) will affect the increase or decrease of the number of deaths. Based on this, the United States could face between 350000 and 1.2 million deaths, the study found. The report warns that although the spread of the new coronavirus in the United States has decreased, many states are still not under control, and those states that are considering how and when to mitigate interventions should be cautious in their consideration and decision-making, and strengthening monitoring and control is essential to combat the epidemic.

Since the beginning of the deadly virus pandemic, as of around 2:30 p.m. Beijing time on May 23, there have been more than 1.6 million confirmed cases and more than 96000 deaths in the United States. Since the 20th, Connecticut began to lift restrictions, 50 states in the United States have fully lifted restrictions to achieve partial restart. Health officials have repeatedly warned that despite a landmark restart, Americans still risk contracting the highly contagious and even deadly virus.