Helmets tropical fire styrene industry: negligible impact on the industrial chain

 Helmets tropical fire styrene industry: negligible impact on the industrial chain

In recent days, the market price of ABS spot market has increased by 1500 yuan to 2000 yuan / ton in a few days at the end of the week and the beginning of the week; EPS is relatively rational, with an increase of 200 yuan to 300 yuan / ton; PS is hot, with an increase of 600 yuan to 700 yuan / ton.

In addition, the highest price of styrene on the spot market in East China rose to 5550 yuan / ton, significantly higher than the top price of 5300 yuan / ton in the first ten days of April.

Cui Jing, an analyst with jinlianchuang styrene, told the first financial reporter that the price of styrene futures rose due to the hype of the one helmet one belt policy, but the sharp rise in crude oil market in the day also led to the general rise of the overall chemical products, and the recent strong performance from the cost side also played an indispensable driving force for the rising price of styrene.

Influenced by the one helmet one belt policy, some e-commerce helmets have jumped or even been limited in purchase recently. The price of helmets has risen from about 50 yuan at the beginning of the month to 100-300 yuan in recent days.

According to the data of tianyancha professional edition, since the Ministry of public security deployed the one helmet belt action on April 21, 2020, as of May 18, China has established 3503 new helmet industry related enterprises, mainly distributed in the eastern coastal provinces, subject to the industrial and commercial registration.

However, Cui Jing analysis, although there are some downstream speculation behavior, it is undeniable that the actual demand for styrene industrial chain products accounts for less than 1%, almost negligible.

Specifically, in the past decade, the annual output of electric bikes in China is about 30-35 million, while the total number of electric bikes in 2019 is close to 300 million. However, in view of the policy requirements of one helmet area in some regions, and the policy of giving helmets to some enterprises for purchase of electric bikes, the actual demand for raw materials from helmets may be much lower than the theoretical value. According to the forecast of 100 million helmet demand, according to the data of top sellers of tmall, the weight of a single helmet is basically 0.5-0.7kg, equivalent to 35000-50000 tons of ABS, equivalent to 10000-14000 tons of EPS, equivalent to 32000-45000 tons of styrene.

Previously, the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic situation, the demand for mask increased rapidly. Many illegal traders began to produce the melt melt cloth with poor quality using common equipment and fiber material, making the futures price of standard delivery goods for the drawing grade polypropylene product PP soaring.

Because the mask depends on the domestic and international demand volume is large, and the replacement frequency is high. After a short period of helmet purchase, the continuous purchase volume is insufficient. At present, there is no relevant national standard in the field of electric vehicle helmets, so it is unable to standardize the production of electric vehicle helmets. In addition, after many cases of losses caused by excessive hoarding in the early stage, speculators pursue high speculation or relative rationality,

From the perspective of styrene itself, Cui Jing predicted that in the near future, the domestic styrene load will resume to the highest level since the Spring Festival. At the same time, the import cargo will arrive at the port normally, and the domestic trade cargo will be concentrated to supplement the East China. The wharf inventory will face the recovery expectation. The market will transition from tight balance to loose balance in the previous period, which will also suppress the markets continued good space. However, at present, the support from the upstream cost end is relatively strong, and the downstream maintains high load operation under the support of early orders, especially under the vent of helmet heating and speculation, there is still a short-term push up expectation, which is bound to play a strong role in the styrene short-term market. Therefore, in the near future, styrene is expected to maintain the trend of strong price shocks, but there is relatively insufficient space to continue to rush higher.